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Hubei Cotton Association: The Risk Of The Whole Industry Chain Will Increase Sharply.

2010/11/13 10:43:00 46

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At present, Hubei Province

cotton

The picking rate has gone through most of the period, and the price of spot and spot has not changed, and the cost of cotton is constantly increasing.

Whether the high cost of raw materials can be pmitted to the downstream has become the focus of attention and prevention of cotton purchasing and processing enterprises.

The cotton association of Hubei province investigated the upstream cotton farmers and downstream of the industrial chain through the Hubei cotton warning system.

Textile enterprises

Performance and attitude towards the market.

Cotton grower

Timely cotton sales increased steadily.

According to a survey of 160 cotton farmers in 8 counties in Jianghan Plain, Hubei and Hubei, the seed cotton harvest period is in late August this year. The earliest selling period is from late September to early October, and the large sale time is between October 15th and October 31st.

From the analysis of the time of sale, the first is that cotton harvest is generally postponed this year. The two is that cotton farmers have better timing and rhythm.

The purchase price at the end of September has reached 4.5 to 4.7 yuan / Jin, the first centralized selling period missed the early purchase price, and the purchase price in mid October has reached 5.4 to 5.5 yuan / Jin, and the large-scale sale has stepped up the acquisition of high price, laying the foundation for the growth of cotton planting this year.

Conservative calculation, such as this year's yield of 400 kg of seed cotton, the average price of 5 yuan (at the end of October, the province's average selling price has reached 5.52 yuan / Jin), seed cotton wool income 2000 yuan / mu; last year's yield of 550 kg, the average price of 3 yuan, seed cotton wool income 1650 yuan, an average of more than 350 yuan per mu.

Pick up speed, high prices induce reluctant to sell psychology.

At present, the harvest has exceeded 60% of the total output. The purchase of "one day one price" has prompted some cotton farmers to sell.

As of October 31st, the farmers surveyed were picking up 168663.5 kg of seed cotton, accounting for 55.4% of the estimated output. The selling price rose from 4.5 yuan / kg in September 15th to 5.6 to 5.8 yuan / Jin in October 31st, and the price of one day, one price or even afternoon was different from that in the morning, and it was a cotton merchant's purchase and courteous service.

Among the surveyed households, 5 farmers now have an unsold cotton seed and a high expectation for the market.

Most cotton growers approve of the current purchase price and consider the bag to be safe.

As of October 31st, the survey households sold 137381.5 kilograms, accounting for 81.5% of the harvest.

The temperature is decreasing and the harvest is coming to an end.

The temperature gradually decreased and the sunshine decreased. In October, the sunshine time in Hubei province was less than 5~20 hours in the southeastern part of Hubei Province and the Jianghan Plain in the same period of the same period.

Meanwhile, some cotton plants in some areas have been allocated to ensure subsequent crop cultivation.

Cotton prices continue to rise, spinning enterprises find another way out.

Cotton prices are rising all the way, the supply of goods is also tight, and the quality is difficult to guarantee, but the price of grey cloth can no longer increase at the same time. In addition, the pressure of employment has kept the profit margins of small weaving mills continuously squeezed. Textile enterprises only have to find a new way to adjust their product structure.

Many enterprises in the production process to reduce the amount of cotton, part of small and medium-sized textile enterprises "holiday", to avoid the peak cost increase, and enterprises adopt the way of purchasing together, financing each other to stabilize the source of cotton, such as payment in advance to cotton processing enterprises, directional organization to carry out the acquisition of cotton.

High cotton prices affect high prices of related products.

Prices of chemical fiber and other related products follow the price of cotton, which has risen to the consumer market.

With the rise of cotton prices, textile production has increased the amount of alternatives such as chemical fiber, triggering a chain reaction and driving up the price of products.

By the middle of October, headed by polyester staple fiber.

synthetic hair products

It has risen from 9600 yuan per ton to 13000 yuan per ton, or up to 30%.

Insiders said, "before the price adjustment of chemical fiber products, most of them are affected by the fluctuation of oil prices, and the price of chemical fiber is following the cotton price."

The rise of raw materials and fabric prices directly led to the price rise of the latter products, and the prices of clothing and home textiles items increased to varying degrees. Last year, a set of "three gun" underwear was bought for $37 and $8, which has risen to 48 yuan this year.

Raw material prices are not stable, textile orders are "shabby".

With the "barometer" of our foreign trade, the 108th Canton Fair is in progress, and the textile and garment industry is a worthy leading actor.

As cotton prices soared all the way this year, there seems to be no sign of stability until now. Many exhibitors have increased their quotations by around 40%, which makes most foreign businessmen very uncomfortable. Although many orders have been issued, most textile and garment enterprises are afraid to take orders directly, most of them like to pick up small bills and short lists to avoid risks.

It is understood that the "7 day validity of quotations" has become a general rule for textile exhibitors, and the validity period of the quoted prices is sometimes as long as one or two months as the cotton price fluctuates. Even the quotation at the beginning of the year is still in use at the end of the year.

Hubei Cotton Association believes that the price of cotton has affected the whole industry chain, no matter how big the capital speculation is, how hard the gap is, and the price will ultimately be determined by the consumption capacity. If the cotton price rise really breaks through the consumption limit, the risk will increase dramatically. This is also the focus of the industry.