Affected By The Global Financial Crisis, &Nbsp, China'S Silk Industry Is Not Optimistic.

There are different opinions on the reasonableness of the price of cocoon silk.

As we all know, the current price can not be mechanically compared with the 80~90 years of the last century or even the first few years of this century. Because of the different economic development level of different regions, the factor cost and so on are different. At the same time, there are various factors such as price level and comparative efficiency in various regions, so we need to look at it dynamically and in a developing way.

Generally speaking, relatively reasonable cocoon silk prices are conducive to the healthy development of silk industrial chains.

"Everyone is really good". Ultimately, we need to increase the consumption demand from raw materials to end products at home and abroad.

However, there are still many problems.

at home and abroad

In the first half of the year, according to the news reports on the sale of silk products in the domestic market, except for a few cases, most of the commodities were difficult to sell because of the fast rising and too high prices of raw materials.

Many silk shops are "crowded", many of them have a larger sales volume in the peak season, and now they seem to be in a slack business, or even no one is interested in it.

This reflects that consumers are difficult to accept the current price level and the price pmission is difficult.

For foreign markets, the total export volume increased in the first half of the year, but the total export volume of actual exports decreased.

The price of Cocoon Silk raw materials has risen too fast and too high, adding new uncertainties to the international silk market which has not yet been substantially restored, aggravating wait-and-see sentiment and objectively inhibiting market demand for consumption.

For example, in the first half of the year, the price of India's factory silk exports increased by 49.88%, while the export volume decreased by 17.69%. The same problem was also observed for India exported billets.

For example, the average price of silk exported to Pakistan has increased by 51.83%, while the number of silk varieties exported to China has been greatly reduced.

Exports to other markets have similar situations, but because of the different market conditions, the degree of impact is different.

In particular, it is pointed out that India and Pakistan last year accounted for 35.67% of the total export volume of China's exports to the two countries, of which 59.58% and 51.43% of the total silk and silk fabrics exported to the two countries were exported respectively.

In the first half of this year, the price of cocoon silk in China increased, which had a serious negative impact on the Indian and Pakistani market. Based on the characteristics of the two countries, the impact on cocoon silk could also be further manifested, which would drag on the overall export of China's silk industry this year.

New hidden dangers appear gradually

In the first half of the year, due to the continuous rise of raw material prices and the increasing cost of various elements, the pressure on production and operation of enterprises increased significantly, and some sectors suffered serious losses.

Even a large number of enterprises with superior management and technology level in the forefront of the country are also in a bad position.

Many enterprises choose to do less in order to avoid making more profits.

Because of the soaring raw material prices and the export market downturn, silk mills and silk factories have been squeezed into "compressed biscuits".

As a result, production, production and shutdowns are increasing.

Some factories and enterprises even rent or sell on the Internet, but no response has been made for a long time.

In addition, raw materials such as silk floss, dried cocoons and other raw materials seek buyers' information, and there are even reports of "large stocks of silk".

From the analysis of the difficulties in production and operation, together with the analysis of export statistics and data of the above customs, it shows that China's silk industry is pregnant with some new situations and changes, and the situation is not optimistic.

High yield trend continues

According to statistics, the national average price of spring cocoons is 15.71 yuan / Jin this year. According to relevant reports, the price of rice purchase in the first half of the year is about 1 yuan / kg, and the average price of domestic cotton is 8.28 yuan / Jin.

In this way, the ratio of cocoon, rice and cotton price is 1:15.7:1.9.

Take Jiangsu as an example, according to statistics, the average price of spring cocoons in Jiangsu is 17.9 yuan / Jin this year. According to Xinhua channel of Jiangsu, the average price of Japonica Rice in Jiangsu is 1.278 yuan / kg (the average price of late indica rice is 1.039 yuan / Jin) in the first half of the year. The cotton price is calculated at 8.50 yuan / Jin, and the ratio of cocoon, rice and cotton in Jiangsu in the first half of this year is 1:14:2.1.

Due to factors such as productivity increase, although the red light line of cocoon, rice and cotton price ratio of 1:10:1 has not been fully referenced in the past.

Even so, cocoon prices are high this year.

Due to the record high cocoon price this year, the price of silk has also increased, and driven by other human factors, the cocoon price and the price of silk have been interacted. They continue to rise to more than 100 thousand yuan per ton of dry cocoons today, and the price of B silk is 330 thousand yuan and 340 thousand yuan respectively.

Pay attention to price rise

Of course, the rise of silkworm cocoons will make sericultural farmers' income and sericultural production increase rapidly. This should be a good thing. However, at the same time, we need to respect the laws of science and economy and pay attention to the actual operation of the industry. Otherwise, the good momentum will be difficult to sustain and will backfire.

At present, it is not very realistic for cocoon silk production to get great development under certain factors and conditions. However, it is an important driving force for producers to obtain high income and high efficiency after all.

Especially in the western region, with the rapid expansion of mulberry cultivation in recent years, the scale of production and the foundation of the country have also increased.

In the second half of the year, there were more reports on the increase of autumn cocoon seed output.

In the future, if there are no major disasters and other special reasons, it is certain that the supply of cocoon silk will increase.

The author expects that the annual output of fresh silkworm cocoons in the 19 provinces and cities in the province will reach 630 thousand ~65 million tons this year.

If we consider the number of other non major producing areas encouraged by the high cocoon price this year, the actual cocoon output will be greater throughout the whole year.

According to the consumption and consumption trends of domestic and foreign markets in the first half of this year, the amount of long and short fiber (silk) needed for domestic and export sales is estimated to be around 80 thousand tons per year.

That is to say, this year, only about 500 thousand tons of silkworm cocoons are needed for the whole year.

According to the annual output of silkworm cocoons produced in China last year and this year, the quantity of fresh silkworm produced by this year is estimated to exceed 600 thousand tons, and the amount of tussah silk production and supply is expected to exceed 100 thousand tons throughout the year.

The outlook for China's silk industry is still not optimistic.

Adopting new economic stimulus measures to illustrate the impact of the global financial crisis on the economies of various countries is still continuing. The lagging effect of the European debt crisis has not yet fully manifested, and the impact on China's silk industry will also continue. This makes the domestic and international consumer market more complicated, especially in countries and regions such as Europe, the United States and Japan. The risk of economic recovery will increase and the difficulty of recovery of silk consumption demand will increase. On the other hand, the phenomenon of "roller coaster" or "bruit" in China's cocoon silk price will probably reverse the supply and demand of China's cocoon silk and the price. At present, the world economy has entered the post financial crisis era, and some developed countries are continuing.