Rational Attitude Should Deal With Irrational Increase Of Cotton Prices

Since September, cotton futures, electronic matching, throwing and storing cotton and cotton spot prices have risen sharply. The purchase price of sporadic seed cotton in China is mostly over 8 yuan / kg, and some even exceed 10 yuan / kg.

In September 25th, China's cotton price index (CC Index328) broke through 20 thousand yuan / ton mark, reaching 20236 yuan / ton, refreshing the highest level in 10 years.

New York futures prices also reached a high level of nearly 15 years.

Before the new cotton sale in large quantities, cotton prices rose sharply, which is beyond the expectation of most people.

Where does cotton price go up quickly?

What is the driving force for cotton prices?

"This is the liberalization of the country since 1999.

In addition, "cotton reduction due to weather reasons is also an important factor in soaring cotton prices."

Although the cotton planting area in China is basically the same as that of last year, planting delays and meteorological disasters have a certain impact on cotton yield. The cotton output in China will probably decrease slightly compared with the previous year, and the quality of cotton will also decrease.

At present, the textile situation has improved compared with the off-season in July and August. It is expected that demand will continue to increase in the new year, and there will still be a big gap between supply and demand.

In the year of 2010, new cotton began to appear sporadically, which was delayed about 15 days compared with previous years. In the cotton market, there was a shortage of demand in stages, and a larger increase in throwing storage, futures and electronic matching led to the opening of the new cotton purchase price at a higher price.

During the Mid Autumn Festival, the purchase price of seed cotton in some areas has risen sharply.

In Akesu, Xinjiang, the price of grade two seed cotton has jumped to 11 yuan / kg, and the moisture regain is as high as 10%.

In some cotton producing counties and cities of Shandong Province, the purchase price of grade three seed cotton is between 10.4~10.8 yuan / kg, the moisture regain is above 18%, and the quality of seed cotton is poor.

From a global perspective, the international cotton price is also rising.

Despite the expansion of the cotton planting area in the United States, the hot and dry weather in August this year has affected the yield of cotton in the United States. Although American cotton will still have a bumper harvest this year, it is not the most productive year.

In August, floods in Pakistan destroyed millions of cotton.

Chen Tao, chairman of Louis Da Fu (Beijing) trading company, analyzed that from the present point of view, the possibility of increasing cotton production worldwide is unlikely. The world's cotton production will not meet the demand, which will largely lead to the rise of cotton prices.

Textile enterprises can bear

Cotton prices continue to rise, textile enterprises can bear it? Most enterprises say "can not afford to eat".

"The recent increase in cotton prices is much faster than that in cotton yarns.

This has greatly reduced our profit margins. "

A cotton textile company in Sichuan said, "in my opinion, the possibility of further rise in cotton prices is still great, but there is little room for cotton yarn to go up.

The sharp rise in cotton prices has caused great pressure on us.

In accordance with the law of price rise, the price rise of cotton drives the price of gauze to rise, and then drives the price of clothing and other end products.

The current situation is that cotton prices are rising too fast and too fast to pmit downstream.

"The hardest part now is that we have to fulfill the price before the price rises before we sign the order contract."

The representative from Lanyan group said that because of the rising cotton prices, the price of cloth rose and the downstream enterprises were hard to accept, resulting in a significant reduction in orders.

Hu Guangmin, chairman of Shandong Huaxing Textile Group, said that the current price is difficult to conduct downstream, and the sales volume of the cotton yarn has dropped sharply after the company's cotton yarn quotes have been raised.

He Yingjun, deputy general manager of Hebei new Dadong textile printing and dyeing company, also said that at present, the demand of the international market is still weak, and foreign customers simply do not accept the high price cotton yarn.

In addition to a small number of enterprises, due to the adjustment of varieties and structure in advance, the impact of cotton price rise is relatively small. Most enterprises have indicated that the current cotton price has exceeded the affordability of enterprises, and the cotton price rises too fast and the speed is too fast, so it is difficult to pmit to the downstream, which brings high risks to textile enterprises.

What should enterprises do when risks increase?

How should textile enterprises cope with the shortage of cotton and high cotton prices?

Most business representatives believe that the price of cotton sales is stable at about 18 thousand / ton, which is more reasonable for the three parties.

The key to the current cotton problem is that cotton prices are rising too fast and too far.

It is suggested that relevant departments take active measures to keep cotton prices stable, and hope that cotton import quotas will be released ahead of schedule next year, which is conducive to early preparation for textile enterprises.

In the face of the "double high" situation in the new cotton market, some representatives believe that there are still many uncertainties in the late stage of the market, such as the appreciation of the renminbi, the economic situation in Europe and the United States and the green trade barriers.

Some entrepreneurs remind counterparts: "textile enterprises should not be excessively sensitive to cotton prices, or concentrate their efforts on the production and operation of enterprises."

In fact, textile enterprises are facing not only the high price of cotton, but also the short supply of cotton.

Many representatives urged that the state should establish a long-term cotton strategy and build a cotton production base to achieve seed cotton subsidies.

Starting from the textile enterprise itself, adjusting the yarn and variety structure, reducing the amount of cotton, it seems more realistic.

Henan Ping Mian group doubled its chemical fiber consumption this year, accounting for 40% of its raw materials.

Although the price of chemical fiber has also risen this year, it is smaller than cotton prices, which has also reduced the pressure of high cotton prices.

Huamao Group, Sanyang textile and other enterprises make use of the favorable time to increase the demand for high count yarn. By increasing the average number of yarns, the amount of cotton used has been reduced and good results have been achieved.

In September 26th, the state decided to put 400 thousand tons of national cotton reserves through auction in order to ensure the demand for textile production.

On the 27 day, the seven departments of the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of agriculture and the General Administration of industry and Commerce held the national teleconference on cotton work, analyzing the current cotton production and marketing situation, and deploying the cotton work in 2010.

The meeting proposed that through the efforts to achieve the 2010 domestic cotton supply and demand balance, to ensure the needs of the textile industry cotton, to safeguard the interests of the vast number of cotton farmers, and to combat malicious speculation cotton behavior.

I believe cotton prices will eventually return to reason.