The USDA Report Is More Neutral Than &Nbsp, And The Cotton Fall Is Higher.

Last weekend, the international market announced data preferences, stocks and crude oil rebounded, but the market was concerned.

Last week, in the international market, US President Obama came out with an economic stimulus of "combined boxing", which lasted for 50 billion dollars.

Zheng cotton's concussion on the afternoon of last weekend, accelerated in the afternoon, rose more than 500 yuan in the month, and reached more than 50 thousand in January. The stock market was surging by more than 50 thousand. The bullish sentiment was high, and the average price of the cotton reserve was 328 yuan, 19440 yuan, up 159 yuan from the previous day. The progress has been 60%. According to the current 20 thousand ton / day speed, the first trading day (October 8th) in October is expected to end the auction.

Macro level 11 announced CPI innovation high, domestic interest rate is expected to increase, need attention.

Operation trend is still strong, more can continue to hold, prudent or high profit gradually leave, do not blindly touch the top.

(pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)

USDA monthly report neutral to continue to support ICE cotton prices

In September 10th, USDA announced that the monthly supply and demand report in September showed that 25 million 464 thousand tons of global cotton output and 26 million 242 thousand tons of consumption were produced in 2010/11, and the production and marketing gap still reached 778 thousand tons. The end of the stock dropped to 9 million 892 thousand tons, which was the second lowest end inventory in the past 13 years, and the end to end inventory consumption ratio dropped to 37.7%, a new low of 15 years.

Although US cotton production has increased to 4 million 102 thousand tons, exports will reach 3 million 375 thousand tons, accounting for 40.84% of world trade. This has led to a decline in US stocks to 588 thousand tons, a 15 year low, which is only slightly higher than that of 568 thousand tons in 95/96.

In this way, the global resources in 2010/11 are still tight. This is the main reason for the continuous rise of cotton in the ICE period. In September 10th, ICE cotton maintained a strong pattern under the relatively favorable report. The highest level was 92.25 cents / pound in the market, but the late trading was depressed by a single profit taking, and the market ended up 0.83 cents to 91.29 cents / pound, and stood firm 90 cents / pound.

However, from the CFTC position report, the fund has many ideas and will continue to hold a large number of orders, while consumer buying is still strong. In this case, the cotton futures contract for December ICE is expected to challenge the pressure level of 97 cents / pound.

From a technical point of view, on Friday, the ICE cotton rush rate fell back to Zhongyang, and cotton prices stood at 90 cents per pound. At the same time, the average line system maintained a good long run. The KD and MACD continued to drift in the overbought area. Although the cotton price was facing the pressure of callback, the rising trend did not change. We suggested that cotton prices should be cautiously bullish. We should pay attention to the support role of the 90 cent / pound contract in December. If such support fails, the cotton price will be callback, otherwise it will challenge the pressure level of 97 cents / pound.

And we think cotton price challenges the probability of 97 cents / pound pressure level is relatively large, it is recommended that ICE cotton keep Bullish Thinking.

China's zhengmian increased again on Friday when domestic resources were tight and new cotton market was postponed. While the low temperature in Xinjiang cotton region and the rainfall in Hubei Shandong cotton area affected cotton quality and output were another factor for Zheng cotton's rise.

Judging from the trend and indicators, the new and old cotton has been integrated. At present, Zheng cotton belongs to excessive speculation. If this speculation can not synchronize the price of domestic cotton and ICE cotton, the rising space of zhengmian will be limited. It is suggested that a small number of holdings should be held, and the reduction of high prices should be appropriate. The 1105 contract should be supported by 19000 yuan / ton.

(Wanda futures Urumqi Sales Department Du Ying)

The Ministry of agriculture has much more data, and cotton futures profit margins are down.

Friday ICE cotton December contract opened at 90.46, fluctuated between 90.32-92.24 American division, early in a single push, down to a high level, the highest to 92.24 cents, the Ministry of agriculture report data conform to the market expectations, more than a single profit out of the warehouse, resulting in a rise in the price of the futures price, late in the empty single back to fill, and again recovered part of the rally, closing at 91.29 cents, the amplitude of 0.92%.

Technically speaking, the United States cotton in December received a Yang line, with the upper shadow line arranged upward, last week to maintain high lateral adjustment, strong no change, RSI overbought index after horizontal adjustment, improved, the latter is still expected to continue to rush, 100 cents only one step away.

In terms of fundamentals, the Ministry of agriculture's monthly report shows that USDA has cut down on us end stocks, increased the export volume of US cotton, reduced China's output and inventory, and increased China's imports. As the author said earlier, the US Department of agriculture has indeed lowered China's stock and export volume, so the next report will continue to continue this trend, so the US cotton will continue to move forward to 100 cents.

On the domestic side, Zheng cotton continued to maintain a strong position on Friday. In May, it continued to increase 505 points in volume, and successfully broke through the 19000 digit points. The trend is very strong, and the next step will be directly to 20000.

On Friday, the average price of national cotton reserves continued to rise, with a 328 fold average price of 19440 yuan / ton, up 159 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and tight supply in the spot market.

Today, weather conditions are unknown, Zheng cotton is still expected to rise.

So on the operation, we should keep more thinking and keep more orders.

(Changjiang futures Wang Jian)

Cotton prices remain strong and continue to rise.

ICE cotton futures edged up last Friday, with the most active December contract up 83 points, closing at 91.29 cents.

The rise in cotton prices is supported by the report of the US Department of agriculture's Lido's supply and demand report. The report has raised the export forecast and consumption estimates, raised the forecast of cotton production and lowered the output of cotton in China, while the output forecast data of India remained unchanged, reducing the cotton inventory at the end of the year of 2010/11 in the United States and China.

With this boost, ICE cotton futures rose sharply, although CBOT and other peripheral commodities still showed a weak decline. Although weekly export data were unfavourable, ICE cotton futures prices fell somewhat, but the market as a whole remained uptrend, stronger than peripheral commodities.

Domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to rise, and spot lint prices rose slightly.

At present, cotton picking and acquisition period is in progress, and rainy weather in the real estate cotton area has a certain impact on cotton yield and quality, which has also increased the confidence of many bulls.

Zheng cotton futures prices did not change. Last Friday, there was a breakthrough. The turnover and positions were maintained at a high level. Although the price was high, the Bulls continued to enter the market, and the market had not ended yet.

(Haitong futures Zhengzhou Sales Department: Zhang Jianwei)