Domestic Sales Will Not Slow Down, And Long-Term Growth Will Soon Grow.

The near future, National Bureau of Statistics The main economic data released in July, in addition to CPI's 21 month high, the rest of the economic indicators have dropped to varying degrees, indicating that domestic macroeconomic growth is slowing down. China's textile and clothing domestic demand market is affected by factors such as economic depression, high food prices, seasonal consumption and other factors. There has also been a period of weakness. The growth rate of domestic demand in July has dropped somewhat compared with that in June. But in the medium to long term, the rapid growth of consumption will still be an important force to support the development of the industry.

Consumer demand has dropped.

In August 11th, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest domestic economic data for July. According to the data, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 12253 billion yuan in July 2010, up 17.9% from the same period, and the growth rate fell 0.4 percentage points compared with last month. Among them, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and knitted fabrics exceeded 38 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. In the same period, although the domestic consumer price index hit a new high of 21 months, reaching 3.3%, the clothing CPI index still showed a downward trend, down 0.8% from the same period last year.

Consumer goods and clothing products retail Total growth rate comparison

Meanwhile, according to the latest Taobao online shopping index released by Taobao, Taobao's online shopping consumption index has been declining for several months, declining from 12.9% in February this year. The data from March to July are 10.4%, 9.3%, 8.6%, 6.9% and 0.1% respectively.

It can be seen that multiparty data indicate that the overall consumption demand of the residents in recent years, including clothing consumption demand, has fallen off, and the competition in the domestic market of textile industry has become more intense.

Multiple factors exert constraints.

At this stage, our country Household consumption The slowdown in demand is mainly caused by the cooling of the macro-economy. According to the data released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, China's purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.2% in July, continuing the downward trend and falling to its lowest level in 17 months, approaching 50% of the flood and drought divide. Although from the historical point of view, in July and August, the economic downturn period, but from the PMI sub index, the classification index of production and orders has a larger decline, which shows that the risk of domestic demand decline is increasing, and domestic economic growth has fatigue performance.

Comparison of purchasing managers' indices in manufacturing industry

Secondly, the growth rate of disposable income of residents is slowing down, which restricts consumer confidence and causes consumers to choose prudent consumption at this stage. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of 2010, the actual growth rate of urban residents' disposable income (excluding price factors) was 7.5%, down 3.7 percentage points from the same period last year, 2.3 percentage points lower than that in 2009. Affected by the slow growth of income, the growth of consumption expenditure of urban residents in China is also slowing down. In the first half of 2010, the actual consumption growth of urban residents in China was 7.2%, down from 2.6 percentage points in 2009 and 1.5 percentage points in the first quarter of this year.

Comparison of residents' disposable income and consumption expenditure growth

Third, the high price of food has affected people's consumption of textile and clothing. Driven by the price of vegetables, meat and poultry, the consumer price index (CPI) hit a new high in July. In July, CPI rose by 3.3% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from June, the biggest increase in 2010. According to the sub item data, eight categories of commodities in the CPI statistics basket increased by six in July compared with the same period in the previous year, and the prices of communications and services decreased by 0.7% compared with the same period last year. The clothing prices decreased by 0.8% compared with the same period last year, while the prices of the other six categories of commodities increased year-on-year in the year of the year of July. The rise in prices has led to an increase in the cost of living for consumers, and the rising prices of food and other necessities will definitely affect consumer spending on clothing and other products.

Domestic sales growth is still expected.

Although at present, affected by multiple reduction factors, China's textile and clothing domestic demand market is weak and slow down. However, in the long run, the rapid growth of China's textile industry's domestic market will be a normal performance due to the comprehensive influence of urbanization and the continuous reform of income distribution system.

With the development of urbanization and the improvement of people's living standard, the consumption ability, market demand and consumption concept of textile and clothing products are constantly improving. Although China's urbanization rate is still below the world average level, China has stepped into the accelerated period of urbanization in recent years. According to the relevant data, in 2009, the proportion of urban population in China reached 46.6%, an increase of 17.2 percentage points compared with the proportion of urban population in 1995, and the urbanization population reached 620 million. According to the recently released "China urban development report", the proportion of urbanization in China will exceed 50% in 2020. By 2025, the urbanization rate in China will reach 55%, and the urbanization population will reach 830 million to 870 million. On the one hand, the acceleration of urbanization will provide broader space for the development of textile and clothing consumption market. On the other hand, it will further speed up the transformation of people's clothing culture and decorating culture, and actively promote the further growth of China's textile and clothing market demand.

In recent years, the pace of reform of China's income distribution system has been accelerating. This year, more than 20 provinces and autonomous regions have gradually raised the minimum wage standard. At the same time, the wage regulations and income distribution reform plan of equal pay for equal work and wage consultation are also in the process of brewing. All of these indicate that the income level of our residents will enter a new stage.

In addition, in 2010, our government continued to increase investment in public services such as health care, social security, education, and so on, to relieve the worries of residents' consumption and further enhance their willingness to consume. In recent years, people's habit of clothing consumption has become more personalized, diversified and fashionable, and will continue to promote the prosperity and progress of China's textile and clothing market. It is believed that under the combined effect of the above factors, the domestic sales of China's textile and clothing will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years.