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Li Yining: China'S Economy Is Most Afraid Of Stagflation At Present.

2010/8/21 9:28:00 75

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Li Yining, a famous economist, pointed out today at the Special Consultative Conference held by the CPPCC National Committee on "expanding domestic demand and promoting the pformation of development mode".

Stagflation

Rather than pure inflation.

The inflation in China is generally a mixed type. Therefore, it is not appropriate to adopt a macro tightening policy simply. Instead, comprehensive measures should be taken.

Li Yining

According to the economic performance in the first half of 2010, we should be alert to inflation.

But different types of inflation should be differentiated and different countermeasures should be adopted.

Only adopting macro tightening policy will make the supply shortage of some commodities more prominent.

For example, cost push inflation must be relied on targeted investment and credit support.

Li Yining believes that for the current stage of China's economy, the most fear is stagflation rather than pure inflation.

According to the experience of the fourth quarter of 2008, China's economic growth rate dropped to about 6%. Business failures, laid-off workers, migrant workers returning home, consumers wait-and-see, investors stop and so on will appear one after another.

Assuming that cost push and international import inflation are contrary to containment, domestic prices remain high, which is stagflation.

Answer

Inflation

In particular, it is necessary to take two policies to prevent the occurrence of stagflation.

Li Yining said, first of all, it is necessary to shift from total regulation to gross regulation and structural regulation.

The adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio, the adjustment of interest rate policy and the regulation of credit scale all belong to the total amount control of monetary policy. They are all important, but their limitations are very large, mainly due to the "one size fits all" problem.

The structural regulation of monetary policy is more suitable for China's current national conditions.

Second, from moderately loose monetary policy to tight monetary policy, we need to push forward in a phased way to avoid a sharp turn.

"Tightness" can be more effective.

"Tightness" means that while monetary policy is tight, monetary policy may be given some; while fiscal policy is tight, fiscal policy may be looser.

Even monetary or fiscal policies can be carried out in a relaxed way.

Monetary policy or fiscal policy "double tight" is a measure that must be taken when it is absolutely necessary.

Li Yining believes that in the long run, China's economic development will be constrained by two bottlenecks.

This is the two crucial issue affecting long-term price trends.

First, land supply is limited.

It is necessary for the government to make early plans to lift the bottleneck of land supply, and the two is the imbalance of capital allocation.

Capital volume is not scarce at present. The key is that there are some problems in capital allocation.

For example, the financing difficulties of private economy still need to be solved. Capital flows into the virtual economic field due to the pursuit of high profit rate.

The equalization of capital is the main premise for the balanced development of regional development and the equalization of industrial structure. It is one of the guarantees for long-term stabilization of people's inflation expectations.