Cotton Price Analysis In The New Year: Insufficient Cotton Production In China

Cotton is coming to an end, new year. cotton Price has become the main topic of concern. Make a hint from all aspects for your discussion.

1. Global production and demand. According to the data released by ICAC, the new year produces 25 million 240 thousand tons of cotton, 24 million 980 thousand tons of cotton and 260 thousand tons of surplus. The COTLOOKA index is 85 cents. It is equivalent to 1% yuan, 14701, and 15201 yuan per ton. If the data change little, this price should be the international average price this year. The annual difference between the high and low prices changed at 3000 yuan, the high point was 16201 and 16701 yuan, the low point was 13201 and 13701 yuan / ton.

2. Cotton is still in China Insufficient production 。 Production 708, consumption 990, inventory consumption ratio 32%. The inventory consumption outside China is 44%, the average global inventory consumption is 38, and China is lower than the mean value of 6%. China's cotton price is higher than the international average price. It is 664 yuan / ton higher. In the new year, the price range of cotton in China is 13865----17365 yuan.

3. Various Factor Comparison.

First, the economic environment will be better.

Two, the gap between supply and demand exists, domestic replenishment needs.

Three, inflation factors show that capital inflows increase.

Four. Weather and climate are changeable.

Five, the complexity of international multilateral issues.

Six, both inside and outside the textile sales.

4. unfavorable factors

First, slow economic recovery and fragile shadow remain. Consumption is weak.

Two, higher textile costs, and outward processing exports have shown signs of weakness. Textile exports are limited.

Three, adjusting the structure will weaken the spinning ability. Textile products below scale will be eliminated. The amount of cotton used is relatively reduced.

Four, the policy will be weakening in textile industry, decreasing in state capital investment and weakening in fiscal and tax policies.

Five, private capital will reduce input in textile sector and reduce concern. The market is not active.

Six, global resources recovery and supply increase.

Seven, the international economic environment is complicated and trade disputes have increased.

Eight, the RMB exchange rate reform process is speeding up.

Nine, the increase of other textile materials can increase the substitution and enlarge the price.