Shenzhen Property Market Again Led &Nbsp, Four Weeks Down 30%

May not mean that Shenzhen housing prices have entered a comprehensive decline stage, but the effect of the property market regulation has emerged.

Huang Shu Hui

The Shenzhen property market, which has always been regarded as the vane of domestic housing prices, once again leads the whole country. The average price of the Yishoufang paction has decreased by more than 30% in the recent four weeks.

However, insiders believe that such a large proportion of the decline is related to the reduction in the sale of high priced real estate.

Therefore, the above data may not mean that the housing prices in Shenzhen have entered a stage of overall decline. Most of the developers are still waiting and watching, except for a small number of real estate enterprises.

The industry generally believe that the price reduction is the trend of the times, a large-scale property price reduction may occur in the fourth quarter.

Still in the initial stage of price cuts.

In June 21st, statistics released by the world union real estate (27.39, -0.06, -0.22%), Zhongyuan Real Estate and the Southern China branch of the China Index Research Institute also showed that the volume of turnover in Shenzhen's first hand housing market fell twenty-fourth weeks this year (from June 14th to 20th).

Among them, the volume was 369 sets, a decrease of 30.1%, and the average paction price was 14752.41 yuan per square meter, and the decrease was 12.5%.

This means that the average price of Shenzhen Yishoufang has been declining for four consecutive weeks.

Combined with the previous paction data, the average price of Shenzhen Yishoufang weekly paction fell from twentieth yuan per square metre to 21505 yuan per square meter in the past week (from May 17th to 23rd), which has reached 31.4%.

In fact, from the overall price trend, the average price of Shenzhen Yishoufang has been falling since the seventeenth week of the new deal of the property market (April 26th to May 2nd).

Compared to the average price of 25846 yuan per square metre for seventeenth weeks, the average price of Shenzhen Yishoufang has reached 42.9% in the twenty-fourth week.

Wang Haibin, director of the world union real estate research, said in an interview with "First Financial Daily" that the average price of Shenzhen Yishoufang fell directly related to the structure of the current paction structure. The gradual decrease in the volume of luxury apartments and large Huxing has led to the continued downward trend of the overall average price of the Shenzhen property market.

Wang Zhongjie, director of Shenzhen Zhongyuan market research department, said in an interview with the newspaper that simply judging from the decline in the average price of Yishoufang has no real significance in judging the overall trend of the market.

However, Wang Haibin believes that the fundamental reason for the fall in housing prices in Shenzhen lies in the fact that the policy of property market has been adjusted.

It is noteworthy that Shenzhen has not yet seen the phenomenon of massive price cuts by developers.

According to Wang Haibin, from the market trajectory, the property market price usually needs to go through six stages, that is, from wait-and-see and stalemate to local promotions, and then to the opening of new projects at a low price. In the fourth stage, it will enter partial promotion, and then there will be partial price reduction, eventually forming a comprehensive price reduction.

He believes that the overall property market in Shenzhen is still at the stage of partial promotion and new projects opening at a low price.

Wang Gongmin, a real estate commentator in Shenzhen, said that the price reduction is the trend of the times. But at present, developers and policies are still at a stalemate, and the mainstream developers in Shenzhen have not started large-scale sales promotions.

CITIC Securities (20.82,0.07,0.34%) research report also believes that the real estate is a non-standard pre-sale goods, once the price cuts will occur early owners can not reach the standard of housing disputes, so developers rational pricing must first be targeted at new developments, and quite low-key.

The tide of price cuts still needs time.

But price cuts are increasingly becoming the helpless choice for developers to start sales.

Wang world said that under the background of the current market regulation, other marketing methods were basically out of order, and the promotional tools such as discount or physical gift did not seem to be meaningful now. Price reduction has become the most effective and important marketing tool for developers.

According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate, at present, some projects in Shenzhen have achieved good results in the contrarian situation. The sales rates of overseas Chinese town Xinyuan, waterside spring two and upper grade Ya garden are over 50%. The common characteristics of these properties are that the prices have dropped considerably compared with the previous expectations.

But there are also some new sales in May less than 10%, Wang world said, the sale of less desirable properties is mainly because sales prices relative to market expectations did not significantly reduce.

The first price cut by Jia Zhao Ye and Vanke is probably a market signal, and more developers are expected to join the price cuts in late June.

Wang Haibin and Wang Gongmin both believe that in pursuit of capital withdrawal, the listed companies may sacrifice a certain stage of local interests to achieve good market feedback and take the lead in partial price reduction or promotion measures.

In the context of the pressure of the housing market regulation, Shenzhen's top listed real estate business executives almost invariably predict that prices will fall in the second half of the year.

Jindi group (7.08, -0.08, -1.12%) Xu Jiajun and general manager of investment real estate (17.01,0.17,1.01%), general manager Wang recently, told an interview with our reporter that the company's sales strategy will respond flexibly according to the market trend; the chairman of the board of directors of China Shipping Kong Qingping said at the 9 shareholders' meeting that the opening price of China Shipping real estate in the second half of the year will be adjusted according to the market situation.

Vanke Tan Huajie, also known as Vanke, recently said that Vanke would take the initiative to adapt to the trend of market changes and respect the actual market situation and make reasonable pricing.

However, in the case of the Shenzhen property market taking the lead in the downlink channel, Beijing's housing prices are still rising in the adverse market, while the price drop in Shanghai is still far less than that in Shenzhen.

According to the statistics of Asian giants, the average paction price of commercial housing in Beijing in from June 14th to 20th was 18217 yuan per square meter, rising by 1.12%. The average price of commercial housing in Shanghai was 17998 yuan per square meter, and 7% in the same period.

Huatai Securities Research Report that some of Shenzhen's real estate sales have been more obvious price promotions, but the tide of price cuts from Shenzhen to other second tier cities still need time to spread.