Liu Jipeng: The International Financial Crisis Is Not Over Yet.

Many experts in the industry describe the current economic situation as "Post Crisis Era", but Professor Liu Jipeng, director of the center for capital research of China University of Political Science and Law, seems to be a false proposition.

"From the perspective of the United States, although we have just stepped out of the subprime mortgage crisis, we have come to the financial crisis again. In June 2nd, the US Treasury released the latest total Treasury bonds. Data show that US Treasury bonds reached US $13 trillion, reaching 90% of us GDP.

The debt crisis in Europe and Greece is still spreading. As far as Japan's situation is concerned, it has not yet been completely out of the past 20 years of economic recession, and Japanese government debt has reached 229% of GDP. Liu Jipeng judged that from the perspective of the spread of the international financial crisis, we can not simply draw the conclusion that we have passed the crisis. "I am afraid it is too early to talk about the post crisis era."

Liu Jipeng made this judgement at the Dongqian Lake finance Intelligence Summit held recently.

He analyzed that because China's finance was relatively closed, its monetary system, banking system and capital market system should not be in the international financial system. Until now, China's fiscal wealth and banks also have money, with a deficit of only 3%, far less than 10% of the international market. In particular, the state's investment of 4 trillion yuan has made China more effective in coping with the financial tsunami in Wall Street.

But that does not mean that China is the biggest beneficiary of this crisis.

Last year, in China's 11 trillion and 600 billion yuan investment to boost the economy, bank investment accounted for about 80%, and the total value of bonds and stocks was very low, less than 20%. Such a large amount of investment, if all the money of the bank, I am afraid that the efficiency of the project is worth noting. What is more concerned is that as of the end of April this year, the balance of deposit and loan of commercial banks in China was 66 trillion and 300 billion yuan and 46 trillion and 200 billion yuan respectively. The overall deposit to loan ratio has reached 69.5%, and how to solve the problem of 20 trillion and 100 billion yuan deposit and loan difference is also a great risk.

There are also local government financing platforms. According to the CBRC statistics, by the end of 2009, the loan balance of local government financing platform was 7 trillion and 380 billion yuan, an increase of 70.4% over the same period last year. In the first quarter of this year, 40% of new bank loans went to the local government financing platform. Liu Jipeng believes that the crisis of local government financing platform is rather vague at present. "We should not demonize the financing platform of local governments".

What worries Liu Jipeng is foreign exchange reserve.

At present, our country has 900 billion yuan of US Treasury bonds, and 380 billion dollars of us Fannie and Freddie bonds. If China's foreign exchange reserves grow to US $2 trillion and 500 billion, it means that all our national debts support the US economy. Having so many foreign exchange reserves means that our country also needs to print "equivalent" RMB. This will not only bring risks to inflation or asset bubbles, but also risk the depreciation of China's foreign exchange reserves.

In the face of these difficulties, Liu Jipeng put forward his own proposals: first, the issue of RMB interest rate and exchange rate, the generation mechanism of exchange rate marketization is superior to that of raising interest rates; secondly, the import and export issues need to use treasury bonds to buy the resources and products needed by China, and even to share the operating land and high-tech companies. Third, inflation, if foreign exchange reserves are not spent, the dollar will depreciate one point, and China will lose 25 billion yuan.

"What do we do? How to solve these problems and make policy makers hesitate? How to avoid error cards is probably the biggest difficulty at present." Liu Jipeng said.