ABC IPO Will Be Reduced Or Reduced

When ABC IPO was born at a time when the market was weak, it could not afford any trouble. Following the announcement of ABC or lowering the issue price, media reports yesterday said that if the market conditions are still fluctuating, ABC may cut its initial public offering (IPO) of 30 billion US dollars.

　　 Return on equity 19% wins

According to media reports, the Agricultural Bank of China, which is preparing for listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong, is controversial about the valuation of its new shares. According to the data disclosed by the bank to the underwriting group, it is estimated that the return on equity will reach 19.09% this year, which is 17.91% higher than that of the market forecast Bank of China.

Sources also revealed that ABC's stock issuance in Shanghai and Hongkong could reach up to 16% of the total share capital. Reported that ABC originally set the proportion of new shares in the total share capital in the 12%~18%. So far this year, Shanghai Composite Index has been one of the worst performing indexes in the global stock market, and has fallen by about 22% due to the implementation of a series of policies to curb asset bubbles and prevent overheating in the real estate industry. According to its original size, IPO will be the largest in the world. However, according to the current weakness of A shares, ABC IPO will be reduced.

　　 Agricultural Bank expects to earn 84 billion this year.

It is reported that ABC expects net profit in 2010 to increase from 65 billion yuan last year to 84 billion yuan. The net asset value of the bank as at the end of 2009 was 355 billion yuan, and it was estimated that the net asset value before the sale of new shares would be increased to 440 billion yuan in 2010. Based on this calculation, ABC predicted that the return on equity in 2010 was 19.09%, although it was different from the 21.52% and 22.14% of the ICBC and the Construction Bank predicted by the market, but it was higher than 17.91% of the Bank of China. ABC therefore believes that although pricing has not been matched by ICBC and CCB's 2 times forecast market share, it can at least be 1.5 times higher than that of the bank.

It is reported that the Hongkong public hearing of the Agricultural Bank of China is scheduled to take place in June 10th, thereby creating conditions for the bank to go public in Hongkong and Shanghai in the middle of July. If approved, the Bank of Agriculture plans to list in Hongkong in July 16th, people familiar with the matter said.

　　 Neutral influence on bank shares

Recently, banks have already issued a refinancing plan. What is the impact of the bank's upcoming listing on bank stocks? Hu Jianjun, a researcher at Hongyuan securities bank, said that there are complex fundamental factors behind the decline in bank shares this year. The market bleeding caused by refinancing is only a superficial phenomenon. In terms of fundamental factors, the two worries of the bottom economy, the risk of mortgage loans and the risk of local government debt repayment are the most worrying factors in the market. Other factors such as manufacturing risk, overcapacity and industrial upgrading can not constitute a large systemic risk factor. The policy flexibility of the state is expected to put the risk of commercial banks in a controllable space. Bank stocks are still very large investment opportunities in the medium and long term, but short-term pessimism market sentiment has suppressed its rising space.

He believes that the impact of agricultural bank listing on the market is neutral. The pricing of ABC will also take into consideration the weak market factors at present, and strive to reserve a small space for the two tier market, with extensive outlets, high savings deposit ratio, low interest bearing costs, county economic development and big agricultural policy support. ABC also has its own weaknesses. Generally speaking, the listing of Agricultural Bank has little effect on the current pattern of bank share investment.

　　 Ningbo port will make financing 13 billion on Friday.

The Ningbo port on Friday broke the calm of more than 1 months of IPO issuance. According to the prospectus of Ningbo port, the company plans to issue no more than 2 billion 500 million shares, and the total share capital after issuance will not exceed 13 billion 300 million shares. The proposed fund-raising will be invested in 4 projects, such as terminal construction and port facilities renovation. The total investment will be 13 billion 250 million yuan. The proposed fund-raising is only next to Huatai Securities. The actual raised 15 billion 700 million yuan will be the second largest IPO this year.

By the end of 2009, the total assets of Ningbo port were 25 billion 318 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1 billion 819 million yuan, and the net assets per share before the issue were 1.34 yuan.

Wang Xiaoyan, an analyst with the national securities and transportation industry, said that the quality of Ningbo port is very good. It is only issued at this time, but it may not be a good thing for the whole market and industry. Its issuance may pull down the valuation of the industry as a whole. Wang Xiaoyan believes that the valuation of Ningbo port will not be too high, and it may also be issued at a price earnings ratio of about 20 times, so the valuation of the entire port industry will be reduced to this level.

Yu Liting, a strategist at Qilu Securities, said that the listing of Ningbo port is obviously worse than the current weak market, and its diversion effect on capital is obvious. Yu Liting believes that the issuance of options at this time will extend the market's low finishing time. She said that the main factors affecting market confidence include the continued issuance of new shares and concerns about the real estate regulation policy. The former affects capital demand and the latter affects large cap stocks. When these two factors are all negatively impacted, the issuance of Ningbo port will obviously extend the market adjustment time.