Ye Tan: As Long As We Solve The Three Major Problems, &Nbsp, The Stock Index's Fall Is Not Terrible.

The decline of the stock index is the inevitable outcome of the withdrawal of stimulus policies. The global Central Bank jointly issued currency in 2008 and 2009, and the market has responded accordingly to this year's gradual withdrawal and fiscal tightening.

After a series of setback in the stock market, there is no doubt that the focus of valuation has been adjusted downwards. At this time, the bull and the bear are equal to taking the market with long spears.

The same argument is that the stock index futures are helping to rise and fall. A pocket index market is faced with a big market of 21 trillion and 460 billion market value (up to May 14th).

The government wants to save a bull market. The best way for a listed company to decline its profit forecast is to continue to distribute the currency. The cost is the continued imbalance of the global economy, the deterioration of China's economic structure and the continued rise in housing prices.

Once debt crisis occurs, the government can not mobilize more money, any small crisis can be fatal.

As long as the traditional manufacturing industry can be pferred to the central and western regions under the circumstance of reducing pollution, as long as emerging industries can replace traditional industries to become the next wave force in the Chinese market, the short decline of the market is the relay of Daniel, which is not terrible.

What is really terrible is the following three major problems.

The biggest problem is that the stock market is becoming more and more powerful, from upstream venture capital to downstream market, all of which are in the hands of some powerful people.

If this wind spreads, it will destroy the growing enterprises that are hard to grow in China.

The funds flooded the market turn to venture capital in the two tier market and the retreat of the property market.

Although the decline in China's share creation and private equity investment in 2008, new equity investment funds are mushroomed.

In fact, in recent years, China's venture capital is growing at a high speed.

According to statistics of the Qing Research Center, in 2009, a total of 105 RMB funds were successfully raised by US $12 billion 295 million, and for the first time, they exceeded the US dollar in the total amount of the fund, and occupied the dominant position in the market.

In the field of PE, there is a cluster of dignitary capital and the phenomenon of "going back to the country".

According to statistics, from 2006 to the end of 2009, the State Council approved 10 industrial funds with a total scale of more than 140 billion yuan RMB. After that, the industrial fund also included: 20 billion (yuan, the same below) space industry fund, 5 billion shipping industry fund and 30 billion Caofeidian Industrial Fund.

It is a good thing that funds seek and pursue quality enterprises in the physical field. The risk is that the valuation of upstream venture capital area (about 15 times the expected price earnings ratio) has far exceeded the normal valuation (7, 8 times earnings / earnings ratio), and there has been a huge bubble. This shows that there are not enough and responsible companies to emerge in the real economy field.

A large number of funds revolve in a few enterprises, and the result is who is more money and who is right.

The powerful fund, local government's industrial fund plus private capital and foreign capital get together in the field of equity investment. They compete in the market competition, and the relationship is more closely related.

The second problem is that when the fruit is not ripe, the departments concerned want to reach for the peaches.

China's small and medium-sized board and gem are the cradle of China's growing enterprises and the hotbed of private enterprises.

It is hoped that China's future Pfizer and Microsoft will be replaced by venture capital and gem financing to replace the so-called blue chips based on steel and cement.

Small and medium sized boards are not yet ripe, and the gem is still in the cradle stage. The parties concerned can't wait to announce the spin off and try to plug high-tech parts in large enterprises into the gem.

For example, the national technology (300077, stock bar) listed on the gem is controlled by CLP Huada, and its customers are mainly state-owned holding enterprises such as banks and operators.

It can be imagined that the future banking system of unified electronic payment, such as private Alipay, will be eliminated.

But everyone knows that the Alipay system is relatively mature and has eliminated most of the disadvantages of state-owned banks.

The final problem is stock index futures.

At present, stock index futures are still in the embryonic stage, and private funds are competing for the deer. Although the number of investors in the stock market is strong, speculation is very strong, which is the test field for China's securities market.

With the announcement of the application guide for hedging quota issued by CICC and the guide to business code management of special corporate bodies, the pace of institutional entry into stock index futures is getting closer. GF Securities (000776), CITIC Securities (600030) and China Merchants Securities have all announced their participation in stock index futures trading.

The game of "mantis catching cicadas and yellow roses" is about to be staged. In the future, CIC two and social security funds will participate in it. Whether the index market will be repeated or not will not be repeated.

The futures market is bound to be big fish eating small fish, small fish eating shrimps, and the survival of the shrimp is bound to catch up with the big fish.

The fall of the stock index is the product of stimulating the exit of policies and the pformation of China's economic structure. It is also a good opportunity for growth firms to squeeze out bubbles.

As long as we can suppress false accounts and dignitaries, we must not worry too much about the future market as long as we persist in persisting in replacing the asset bubble with the real economy.

Of course, if China's real estate new deal is reversed, if big enterprises and Laozhuang shares have been split up, the market will not be saved.