Domestic Cotton Market Prices Rise Strongly

The price of grain in the domestic grain market has risen at a high level, and the price of northern wheat and southern japonica rice has become the main force of rising and rising inflation, rising by more than 5%, and the rice price as a whole has exceeded 90 yuan / 09, but it has reached the national standard of raising grain prices in 09 years. The price of domestic cotton market has also seen a strong rising trend. The 3 grade seed cotton in the mainland has risen from 2.2-2.4 yuan / Jin before the festival to 2.4-2.6 yuan / Jin nowadays. In some places of Shandong, the purchase price of 2.7 yuan / Jin has been reached, and the 3 grade lint market price has risen to 11000 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival.

The market cheers on the rise of grain prices, which makes people feel that the government should support the increase of farmers' income and stability. That is why cotton prices are rising. In addition to the cotton farmers' expectations of the government's purchase and storage, the market reaction seems to be more negative than positive. Cotton mills are looking for cheaper cotton. Analysts believe that the price of cotton is lower than that of national cotton. No wonder the market price of Zhengzhou futures and trading markets has been rising recently.

Eating is more important than dressing, but clothes are still for everyone.

The market price has its own track, but the common people produce grain, cotton or other crops for harvest. In fact, the survey results of farmers' crop arrangement intentions in the past 09 years have long been reported in the Internet. The area of grain has increased, and the area of cotton fields has been greatly reduced. The cotton field area in China may be reduced from about more than 8300 mu last year to 70 million acres, and 70 million can it be stabilized?

It depends on whether the cotton price after the autumn is satisfactory to most cotton growers. If the cotton income is still not as high as that of planting crops, then the area of 70 million mu will not be stable next year. The result is only in theory. The state will surely maintain the stability of the market by means of regulation and control, so as to ensure that the cotton farmers' income in new cotton planting will not be reduced again.

The change of grain and cotton price determines the direction of development of both areas.

In fact, the market price of seed cotton in the first two years was 2.8-3 yuan / Jin, the price of seed cotton in Hebei, Shandong reached 3.2 yuan / Jin, and the lint market price reached 14000 yuan / ton, the grain and cotton price ratio reached 1 to 9 or 1 to 10, and the income of cotton seed increased too much, and the cotton field area increased rapidly. Last autumn, the financial crisis broke out, the textile production capacity suddenly dropped, and the large area total production brought a big drop in price. The country entered into the consideration that we must appropriately reduce the cotton price, reduce the grain and cotton price ratio to reduce some cotton fields, and reduce the price pressure brought by the total volume too large. The ultimate goal is to stabilize textile and export and stabilize the income of farmers.

From the above we can see that the domestic grain and cotton (at 0.92 yuan / Jin rice, 10500 yuan / ton production cost) has a price ratio of only 1 to 5.7, and the cotton price before the Spring Festival is less than 1 to 5. The grain and cotton ratio is seriously unbalanced, and the income of farmers' seed cotton has been sharply reduced. Even though the national grain reserve price of 12600 yuan is calculated by the production cost, the grain and cotton price ratio is less than 1 to 7. If the processing cost and profit are added, 1 market price should be no less than 7 yuan / ton.

Therefore, the cotton prices in the domestic market are lower, which really stimulates the decline of the cotton field area in the new year. It is a moderate decline or a sharp decline. It is related to the effect of national macroeconomic regulation and control. Judging from the current situation, the price of cotton and cotton is seriously unbalanced. Cotton prices are not as high as some people think, but rather low.

Before the new cotton sowing, we will continue to maintain the orderly rise of domestic cotton prices, increase the income of farmers who still have cotton, and increase the hope for farmers who decide to continue to grow cotton, which is of great significance for preventing future ups and downs of the cotton market and stabilizing textile production, consumption and export.

Editor in chief: Xu Qiyun