Raise Interest Rate, Why Does This Shoe Always Not Fall?!!

The statistics for the first half of the year were released as scheduled:

- PPI rose 8.8% in June and hit a new high in recent years.

In the first half of this year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 51043 billion yuan, an increase of 21.4% over the same period last year.

In the first half of this year, China's CPI rose 7.9%, up 7.1% in June.

In the first half of this year, China's GDP was 130619 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4% over the same period last year.

In recent months, the figures released are almost the same as those of authoritative forecasting agencies. In the current situation of complex and trend, this figure is not hard for professional bodies to predict.

Scholars in the market think that the data are moving towards the regulatory target, that is, GDP is even better than expected.

I think these are limited to the immediate judgement, but far from the future, and the future is not very far away, but in the second half of this year and the first half of next year.

Many famous scholars believe that in the face of such figures, especially the 7.1% increase of CPI in June, the expectation of raising interest rates is decreasing. There is no need for it. I said, wrong!

Those who say these words are obviously contradictory.

Political economics is important, but we must not despise the inherent regulation of Economics on market supply. Raising interest rates may not necessarily be bad for the current economy, but it may not necessarily be pressure.

I also learned about some enterprises nearby, and also visited some local banking institutions. In the verbal communication, everyone's view of the serious interest rate increase is far less than that of reducing credit, tightening the money supply, and having rice and expensive food. At least, it is better than no food and no rice. Many enterprises can choose their own cost independently.

But if money can't buy rice, then it will be a bit unfair for a skilled woman to starve to death or to be eliminated.

Rice price (interest) can be expensive, but it can not be lost.

Blocking is never far from being effective.

I call "Shu" as guidance and heat dissipation, and "blocking" is easy to make people sulk, heatstroke and illness.

Raising interest rates will give enterprises an opportunity to choose, expand and increase costs, which will help upgrade industries.

If interest is not increased, industrial capital will have more reasons to compete with financial capital.

If I do not have the money to pay wages to the workers, then I will throw out the legal person shares that have been legally circulated.

Normal loans can help me to solve my urgent needs. I do not want to sell my original stock for so many years at such a low price. I also want to have a good price.

What you think?

Raising interest rates is costly and selective, giving people room for survival.

Raising the deposit reserve ratio is a blockage. Tightening up the rice bag can only make people more panic.

Commodity prices and other commodities can only be more irrational.

What's more, our energy prices are regulated, requiring people to save on their own initiative. In China, they are almost Utopian.

Do not forget that finance and industry are closely linked. Past days should not be recalled. Solving problems in development is the only way out, otherwise it will only expose the problem to a more unmanageable situation.

Some people have put forward an absolute reason to refute my view, that is, the "hot money" that has been repeatedly innovating.

Worry!

That's the question: what is the effect of the contraction of so many fluidity?

Can hot money rely on blocking to solve the problem?

Is it a sign that they are willing to leave without raising interest rates?

On the contrary, we have lost many opportunities for our financial and economic reform and dragged ourselves into the quagmire of this idea.

When do the hot money go?

Raising interest rates, if you are sure that you are dodge the difficulties, you must take them away, then we will be quick. At least we can do a lot of opportunities for our own industry upgrading and industrial selection. Our enterprises need rice, especially foreign trade oriented enterprises, which are not easy to establish. We should give them more opportunities and not let many of them get rid of them. This will be a real pity.

Of course, for those who still cherish the memory of the past, because the GDP continued to grow more than 10% for several years in a row, the stock market has been falling, which did not reflect the actual state of the national economy at that time.

But is it ok now?

I believe that the real economy has now been reflected in China's real economy. The stock market has objectively reflected the barometer, which is a good progress.

Today, we can not be metaphysical, but we can see problems in inertial thinking.

In my opinion, if our government has sufficient reasons not to raise interest rates, it should not be the cause of "hot money". The only reason is only one: China's tribulations are too many this year, and the government has no power to fight back.

But I believe that our government is fully capable of dissolving it, and will make decisive decisions in a timely manner, because we can not afford to afford any hard landing.