Textile Exports Consider China'S Manufacturing Industry'S Bottom Line

In the second half of 2008, faced with a drop in commodity prices in just a few months, nearly 70%, faced with sharp drop in orders, few people dare to assert: the economic side reversed.

The most worrying thing is: in 2009, the global economy continued to decline, and exports of the "three carriages" of China's economy remained sluggish.

Textile and clothing, electrical and mechanical, automotive, steel......

The export of these industries is increasing.

If exports are really sluggish, they will definitely affect these industries.

Textile is expected to achieve low cost and low profit operation

There are two main raw materials for textile products: cotton and chemical fiber.

After substantial price cuts in 2008, the price of textile materials dropped to the bottom.

Although export orders have been sharply reduced, the pattern of low cost and meager profit will continue to run at least once in the first half of 2009 for textile enterprises who made no mistakes in 2007 and 2008.

　　訂單依然不足

In October 31, 2008, the announcement of cotton textile enterprise Huafang October 31, 2008, in 2008, was affected by the subprime crisis of the United States, the appreciation of RMB, the continuous rising of raw material prices and the increase of pportation costs, further compressing the profit margins of products. In addition, the macroeconomic policy control factors such as the rising interest rates of loans increased the financial expenses caused by corporate credit, resulting in a major impact on the profitability of the main business of the company in 2008.

It is estimated that the net profit of 2008 will be reduced by more than 50% over the 51 million 800 thousand yuan of last year.

The same is true in the chemical fiber industry.

PTA is the raw material of polyester chemical fiber. Since the three largest PTA manufacturer in Asia, the three production lines have only been opened.

Although it is the peak season of China Textile City, it has been closed recently.

Hong Cai textile company, which manages curtain fabrics, was half as bad as last year's business in 2008.

Ms. Chen, who runs suede, said that only half of its turnover was in November last year.

In 2009, the policy environment of textile industry changed greatly.

Since last August 1st, the export tax rebate rate has risen from 11% to 14.

Exchange rate, since July 2008, the RMB has been hovering around the US dollar around 6.85.

In the first half of this year, the appreciation rate of RMB increased by more than 6%.

Exchange rate stability helps enterprises to place orders overseas.

At the same time, the central bank relaxed the renminbi loan policy and lowered the loan interest rate at the same time.

But analysts believe that in 2009, the textile industry performance constraints are not cost, policy, but demand.

　　原料“過山車”險情消除

S is mainly engaged in the production and sale of polyester chip and polyester fiber business, and produces PTA, the main raw material of polyester.

Although it has better industrial matching, the international oil price dropped to $more than 30 / barrel from 147 US dollars / barrel.

The company announced a net loss of 247 million yuan in the three quarter of 2008.

After half a year's cleaning, the cost of textile materials has dropped significantly.

In December 25, 2008, the price of Brandt dropped to $34 / barrel, rebounding slightly to 38 US dollars / barrel, cotton prices decreased from 1300 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton, dye prices returned to the beginning of the year, and coal prices dropped from 500 yuan per ton to 500 yuan.

Data from Hualian three Xin show that as the price of oil dropped, PX, PTA, long fiber and short fiber decreased by 66%, 56%, 48% and 43% respectively.

From the chemical fiber industry, raw materials dropped more than the end products.

In 2008, the biggest difficulty encountered by textile enterprises was the collapse of raw materials after soaring.

This will not happen again in 2009 because of the weakening demand.

This will enable the enterprises with orders to maintain a small profit operation.

　　粘膠纖維不再風(fēng)光

Viscose fiber is the second largest category of chemical fiber products after polyester.

Viscose fiber is the most similar kind of natural fiber in chemical fiber, and it is commonly known as "artificial cotton".

China's viscose staple products almost all supply the domestic market, exports are very small.

Export has played an important role in stabilizing the domestic viscose filament market.

In 2006 and 2007, the price of viscose increased rapidly, and the performance of related listed companies increased rapidly.

However, the price increase brought about the rapid expansion of production capacity and the rising price of raw materials, resulting in poor performance of viscose listed companies in 2008.

Xinxiang chemical fiber is the largest viscose filament production enterprise in China.

The company forecast that the loss in 2008 was between 210 million yuan and ~2.4 billion yuan, while in the middle of 2008, the net loss of the company was only 77 million 570 thousand yuan.

According to company analysis, since 2008, influenced by the international financial crisis, the demand for textile products has decreased, the viscose fiber market has been sluggish, and the sales of products have been sluggish. The price of viscose staple fiber and spandex fiber has decreased greatly.

At present, there are 8 domestic viscose industry listed companies, including Xinxiang chemical fiber, Jilin chemical fiber, Nanjing chemical fiber, Shandong Hailong, ST Dan, Hubei gold ring, Nanjing chemical fiber, Baoding swan, Australia ocean technology.

Analysts believe that the viscose industry will still be struggling in 2009.