The Deteriorating International Situation Challenges The Textile Industry.

　　國內(nèi)居民衣著性支出面臨下降風(fēng)險

As China's economic growth slowed down significantly in the three quarter, there was also a risk of falling demand for clothing in China. According to the WIND's consumer confidence index, consumer confidence in China also declined month by month in 2008.

From the historical data, the financial crisis in 1997 has a great impact on China's clothing consumption. In 1997 and 1998, the two consecutive clothing consumption showed a declining trend.

In 1996, the clothing expenditure of urban residents increased by 10.17%, but in 1997, the clothing expenditure of urban residents decreased by 1.33%, while that of 1998 dropped by 7.69%.

The clothing expenditure of rural residents in 1999 is still down by 5.67%.

China's GDP has dropped in the third quarter of this year. According to experts, GDP will drop to 8% to 9% next year.

Therefore, next year, China's domestic clothing expenditure will be faced with a downward risk.

     國際經(jīng)濟形勢繼續(xù)惡化

According to the published data, the US GDP in the third quarter decreased by 0.3% compared with the same period last year, the worst performance since 2001.

In this regard, JP Morgan economists expect the US economy to recover in the second half of next year, but the growth rate will be lower than the potential growth rate for a long time.

The US Department of Commerce recently said that the unemployment rate in the United States will continue to rise from 6.1% to 8% next year.

In November 2nd, the European Commission said in its autumn economic forecast report that the euro area economy is in recession and that the economy will probably remain stagnant for most of next year.

The European financial market is still in a state of instability, which has brought considerable risks to the gloomy real economic prospects.

The report predicts that the euro area economy will grow by only 0.1% next year, and the EU's 27 countries will grow by 0.2% next year.

But if the risk premium rises and the residents' credit tightens, the euro zone economy is likely to enter a full-blown recession, with a contraction of 1% next year.

The export data of the past 9 months show that the EU has become the largest economy of China's textile and clothing exports, and the total export volume of textile and apparel is 30 billion 400 million US dollars, up 38.34% compared to the same period last year. The textile exports to the EU amounted to US $7 billion 400 million, an increase of 24.89% over the same period last year, and the amount of clothing exports to the EU was US $23 billion, up 43% over the same period last year.

So far, the EU's demand for textile and clothing in China has maintained a strong growth trend. With the further deterioration of the EU economy, it is not possible to exclude the slowdown in its demand for textile and clothing.

Japan is the third largest exporter of textiles and clothing in China, and exports amounted to $15 billion 800 million in September before 2008, up 6.84% from the same period last year.

Textile exports to the United States this year amounted to US $20 billion 400 million, an increase of 1.14% over the same period, of which 6 billion 300 million US dollars in textiles, an increase of 9.86% compared with the same period last year, and clothing 14 billion 100 million US dollars, down 2.34% over the same period last year.

With the recession in the US and Japan, demand for clothing is likely to decline next year.

According to statistics, in the autumn of October 19th, the first phase of the Canton Fair ended in October 19th, which totaled 16 billion 450 million US dollars, down 10.8% from the spring fair and 3.8% from the same period last year.

Judging from the Canton Fair situation, next year's exports of textile and clothing are not optimistic. China's textile and garment production capacity is too large, and has strong dependence on the three major economies of the United States, Europe and Japan. Under such a global economic crisis, the recession of the US, Europe and Japan in the first half of next year will make China's textile and apparel industry face a severe test.