Textile Exports In Pakistan May Continue To Decline
In the 09 year, the growth of Pakistan's textile exports may continue to be weak. The precipitation in Punjab and Sindh leads to a reduction in cotton production.
Agricultural experts expect cotton production to be around 12 million 500 thousand packs in 2007-08, which seems to be below the official target of 14 million packs, mainly due to pests and diseases in cotton fields.
Textile industry includes spinning, weaving and synthetic fibers. In recent years, due to soaring cotton prices, shortage of electricity, increasing interest rates, increasing business costs and so on, the textile industry is faced with many difficulties. However, the development of textile products is hard to bear by stopping the provision of research and development subsidies.
From 2006 to 2007, the output of cotton increased to 13 million bales. Global cotton production is expected to decrease, and India's ban on cotton exports has led to the idea of domestic cotton processors concentrating on export markets. However, we must note that besides the reduction of global production, cotton prices in the domestic market are also under pressure.
According to relevant reports, textile export growth in July 2008 decreased by 24.4% to 905 million 900 thousand US dollars, compared with 930 million 300 thousand US dollars in the same period last year.
As cotton prices soared and energy prices rose, the textile industry showed a sharp decline in fiscal 2008, and the core earnings of listed companies plunged 77% in the first 9 months of fiscal year 08 (January March).
Soaring cotton prices may increase textile companies' profitability and yield pressure. The rupee has depreciated sharply (since July 1, 2008, it has depreciated by 12% against the US dollar). The price of cotton in China is currently hovering at 4100 rupees / maund, a record high.
According to forecasts from several agencies, global cotton consumption in fiscal year 09 is expected to be 112 million packages (6% less than last year). The reduction of output in the US and China is the main reason, and the price of cotton will become stronger in the international market. The average price of Cotlook A index in fiscal year 09 is 78 cents per pound, up 14% from the same period last year.
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