Export Growth Is Hard To Change Trade Surplus

If the rise of PPI and the fall of CPI are in line with previous expectations, in the May economic data, the growth of export growth has made many people "unexpected".

There is reason to believe that the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis and the global economic slowdown and the appreciation of the renminbi on China's export growth are not as pessimistic as imagined.

According to the economic data released by the General Administration of customs, the cumulative trade surplus in China amounted to US $78 billion 20 million in 1-5, a decrease of 8.6% over the same period last year.

Before May, China's foreign trade import and export amounted to US $1 trillion and 12 billion 80 million, an increase of 26.2% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports of US $545 billion 50 million, an increase of 22.9%, and imports of US $467 billion 30 million, an increase of 30.4%.

In terms of monthly data, the total value of imports and exports in the month of May was 220 billion 780 million US dollars, an increase of 33.2%.

Among them, exports grew by 28.1%, imports increased by 40%, imports and exports increased by more than April, and the trade surplus widened from $16 billion 680 million in April to $20 billion 210 million, but narrowed by 9.9% compared with May 2007.

Export growth shows short-term optimism

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported $120 billion 490 million in the month of May, an increase of 28.1% over the same period last year.

Statistics show that China's export growth in April was down 8.8 percentage points from the same month in March, but the export growth rate in May increased again, an increase of 6.3 percentage points higher than that in April.

Considering the impact of global economic slowdown, RMB appreciation and rising raw material prices on China's export growth, all sectors of society have already had a sweat for coastal export enterprises.

However, the data in May seemed to revive the hope of the export industry. Some experts said that the growth rate of 28.1% was "a bit unexpected".

The reason is that Xue Junxiang, a macroeconomic analyst at Changjiang Securities (16.20, -1.80, -10.00%, bar), analyzed: "1-5 months compared with 1-4 months, the export of high-tech products has expanded and the bulk products have maintained a relatively stable trend, which is the main reason for supporting export growth."

In addition, Zhang Xinfa, a macroeconomic analyst at Galaxy Securities, said: "the slowdown in the appreciation of the renminbi and the increase in industrial value added were all factors for the rebound in exports in May."

At the same time, analysts generally believe that it is difficult to be blindly optimistic about the export industry based on single month data.

"Over the years, 5-7 months are the peak season for export production, and the sales of the traditional bulk commodities industry at the end of the year have actually started in the past few months.

In June last year, the trade surplus also maintained a high trend. We forecast that the surplus in June this year will be higher than that in May, but the growth rate will decline.

Further, the impact of the subprime crisis has not been bottomed out. Therefore, overseas demand factors and tight export policies will still constrain export growth.

Xue Jun said.

The trade surplus is still decreasing.

From the point of view of imports, data show that China's cumulative trade surplus decreased by 8.6% over the same period last year in 1-5.

The analysis by the General Administration of Customs shows that domestic tight macroeconomic policy, RMB appreciation, overseas demand dragged down by subprime mortgage crisis, strong domestic market demand, the scale of deficit under scarce products, the surge in import prices of primary products, and the significant increase in import volume are all reasons for the reversal of trade surplus this year.

All these factors, including domestic and international factors, are difficult to change in the short term.

"This year is likely to be the turning point of the trade surplus.

Under the trend of inflection point, turning head is not necessarily a straight line drop. It is normal for data to have short-term recurrence.

Zhang Xinfa said.

From the data of the import and export key commodity value list, we can see the clues. Xue Jun, in his report to Changjiang Securities, analyzed: "at present, the main export support is traditional bulk commodities, such as clothing and shoes, which are on the increase but the volume is decreasing.

On imports, imports of bulk commodities, especially energy commodities, increase in volume and price.

Compared with April, import growth has seen a substantial increase over the past year. Although the trade surplus is much larger than that in April, it is actually down compared with last year, so the overall trend is still decreasing.

"Besides, in May, the long holidays were cancelled, and working days were more than last year."

Xue Jun told reporters that "under the factors of decreasing overseas demand and RMB appreciation, we believe that the general trend of this year's trade surplus will not change."

There are also different voices.

Li Wen, a securities macroeconomic analyst at the century, told reporters: "the US dollar may appreciate in the second half of the year. We think exports will increase further, imports will slow down slightly, and the trade surplus will continue to expand."

Foreign trade ushering in structural adjustment

For investors, the extended impact of the trade surplus scale is more worthy of concern.

In this regard, Xue Jun said: "in the short term, if the trade surplus falls substantially, the impact on the capital market, especially on the stock market, is psychological. Investors may lose confidence in the export economy based on this. In the medium term, the trade surplus will also affect the growth of GDP in the whole year. But in the long run, the trade surplus will accelerate the structural adjustment of foreign trade, which is beneficial to China's overall economy."

Some analysts believe that in the case of export decline, it may promote China's long-term industrial upgrading - high value-added products can be sold out, low added value of products, the cost of raw materials compression, profits may not be maintained.

"What should we export and what we import to torture our economic structure?

For 7 consecutive years, the trade surplus is abnormal, so the structural adjustment of foreign trade is not only the soft demand of the market, but also the rigid demand of the national macro-economy.

An expert from the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission said to the China Economic Times reporter.