RMB Appreciation Is An Important Reason For The Decline In Export Growth.

At 14:30 on March 12th, the head of the Ministry of Commerce accepted the collective interview of Chinese and foreign journalists at the news center of the conference.

A reporter asked, "according to the latest data released by the customs, the export growth in China decreased significantly in February this year, and the increase in imports was on the rise.

We want to know whether this data indicates a turning point in China's foreign trade situation.

Chen Deming said that according to the statistics of Customs Statistics released just yesterday, our import and export volume is indeed lower than that of January and the same period last year. The figures now released are that the total volume of imports and exports in February is 166 billion 200 million US dollars, compared with last year, we have increased by 18.4%, of which 87 billion 400 million US dollars have been exported, which has increased by only 6.5%. The increase is relatively small, and has reached a single digit figure, which is 45% lower than that of the same period last year. It is also down 20% than that in January. This is the case in February.

Imports were US $78 billion 800 million, an increase of 35.1%.

Chen Deming believes that our export will grow steadily this year.

There were probably several reasons for the decline in export growth in February and the relatively large decline.

One is the factor of the Spring Festival. As we all know, the Spring Festival this year is February 6th, and last year is February 19th. That is to say, the Spring Festival this year is half a month earlier than last year.

In this way, many enterprises will rush to close their exports before festivals, leaving many things out in January, so the growth rate in January will be relatively large.

Now it seems that exports in February are about 20000000000 dollars less than that in January.

At the same time, we should also pay attention to the fact that in February last year, compared with the previous year, the Spring Festival increased by 51.6% compared with the previous year.

The second reason may be more important and long-term reasons, that is, international factors.

This year, thanks to the impact of the subprime crisis, the US economy slowed down significantly, and the consumption expenditure in the United States also decreased. Our exports to the US increased by only 6.8% in December last year. This year, if the statistics for two months in January and February only increased by 0.4%.

Meanwhile, exports to the European Union in February also increased by 1%.

Therefore, the decline in exports to the US and Europe has led to an increase of 12 percentage points in the overall export growth. Therefore, international factors are also a relatively large factor.

Third, policy factors.

Last year, we launched a number of policies on foreign trade regulation and control. These policies have been gradually displayed this year.

In February, our crude oil and billet were basically zero export. The export of our steel also dropped from 5 million 640 thousand tons in January to only 3 million 110 thousand tons. The total amount in the first two months decreased by 17.2%, and the labor-intensive products such as garments, shoes and caps and bags were reduced, and the export growth in February decreased further.

Another important reason is the appreciation of the renminbi, which has appreciated by 2.9% in 1 and February this year. Since the beginning of the 05 yuan reform in July, it has appreciated by 16.5%. It is estimated that these factors will account for 1/3 of the export cost.

There are also rising prices of raw materials, rising wages, rising environmental costs and so on.

According to analysis, these reasons may be the reason for this year's exports, especially in February.

Chen Deming said that China's imports grew very fast this year, and more than thirty percent, we also made a factor analysis.

The growth of import value does not fully represent the growth of quantity.

Therefore, there is a large increase in import prices this year because of the increase in price factors. For example, in January, the price of our imports increased by 14.8% compared with the same period last year. The import of the five most important commodities in the first two months, crude oil, refined oil, iron ore, soya bean and edible oil, rose by 60% to 80% respectively, not less than 60%.

The increase in prices of these five commodities has contributed to an increase of nearly 12 percentage points in the whole country's imports.

There is, of course, another factor. The increase in imports in February last year is relatively low, which is another reason for the large number of imports in February.

Chen Deming concluded that our exports will continue to grow steadily this year. While maintaining steady growth in exports this year, we should pay special attention to optimizing the export structure and changing the growth mode of foreign trade. At the same time, many uncertainties will affect our import and export this year.

Therefore, according to the requirements of the prime minister's work report, the Ministry of commerce should follow up and analyze new situations and new problems, adopt corresponding countermeasures in a timely and flexible manner, and grasp the key points and dynamics of the rhythm according to the actual needs of macroeconomic regulation and control, and do well in this year's import and export work.

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