Three Increase In Deposit Reserve Ratio

8.3%!

CPI, which remained high in March, tightened monetary policy tighter.

As one of the "three magic weapons" for liquidity management, on the 16 th of this month, the central bank announced again that it will raise the reserve requirement ratio 0.5 percentage points again after 9 days.

After completing the third increase in 2008, the deposit reserve ratio of domestic deposit financing institutions will reach the highest level in history - 16%.

However, as a result of the comprehensive effects of several regulatory measures, the tension of some commercial banks has emerged. Does this mean that tight monetary policy has affected the normal operation of commercial banks?

And is the decline of the banking sector directly related to credit regulation?

In the face of regulation and control, what do investors think and what should banks do?

The first quarter financial data released by the central bank last week showed that the credit growth rate dropped significantly in the first 3 months. The supply of broad money M2 increased by 16.29% at the end of 3, and the balance of RMB loans increased by 14.78% over the same period last year.

Although the growth rate has decreased by 1.19 percentage points and 0.95 percentage points respectively compared with the end of last month, the overall growth rate is still slow.

Meanwhile, the narrow money supply M1 increased by 18.25% at the end of 3, and the rate was still relatively fast.

The above data show that commercial banks still have the desire to expand their credit under the profit oriented drive.

Some of the industry experts interviewed by reporters believe that, because in the pmission channel of monetary policy, relying on the credit channel of banking institutions always occupy a key position, the reform of banking system and the pformation of business mode will have an impact on the credit pmission of monetary policy.

At the same time, because China's major commercial banks have realized the pformation of corporatization, guided by profit targets, and their assets and liabilities have a huge scale, their role in regulation can not be underestimated.

As for the role of the statutory reserve requirement ratio in liquidity management, insiders say that if issuing central bank bills is only a shallow hedge, then raising the required reserve ratio can deeply freeze the liquidity of the banking system.

From the perspective of the impact of liquidity on the banking system, raising the required reserve ratio is more effective than issuing central bank bills, providing greater autonomy for the central bank and reducing the pressure on the central bank to redeem the liquidity expansion.

Other financial commentators believe that cooling the economy by raising the deposit reserve ratio instead of raising interest rates means that the government is most worried about inflation risks and raising the deposit reserve ratio, which is consistent with the credit quota method and the price control law. This shows that the government is trying to adopt instant freezing therapy to cut off the financial nutrients to the economy and make the market decline.

It is understood that the bank's excess deposit reserve rate is relatively high, at the end of 2007 around 3%, for large commercial banks, 16% of the deposit reserve rate is still within the scope of affordable.

Moreover, as more stringent financial regulation becomes a global trend, it is also a rainy day for the government to raise the deposit reserve ratio.

Just as the central bank announced the increase in the reserve ratio, the banking sector continued to decline.

However, analysts pointed out that the increase in the deposit reserve rate will not have a substantial impact on the banking sector.

As a tight monetary policy, the adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio is mainly aimed at the current growth rate of credit growth and the high CPI policy, rather than targeting the stock market.

Wang Songqi, deputy director of the financial research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the main reason for the current bad banking sector is not the macro regulation but also the overall market situation.

For example, the real estate industry downturn, and other systemic risks.

In fact, statistics have shown that the deposit reserve ratio has been raised 12 times in the past. The following day's performance of the stock market's rise and fall is: the 9 rise, and only 3 times it falls.

However, Wang Songqi believes that the continuous tightening of monetary authorities will still have a negative psychological impact on the market.

"For the listed banks themselves, unless they can reclaim large amounts of their stocks, there will be no way to avoid stock price volatility due to investor's lack of confidence because it is entirely decided by investors in the two tier market."

Wang Songqi said that because of shrinking liquidity, the bank's available positions will be reduced, which will also have some impact on bank management.

However, Wang Songqi believes that the performance of publicly traded banks has been released publicly, and the performance of these banks is mostly good. Despite the tight monetary policy, the fundamentals have not changed.

Although the position is tight, banks can completely solve the problem by expanding intermediary business, increasing overseas business and borrowing funds in the market.