Investing In The Future

Is a person investing in "opportunities" or investing in "trends" in his life?

That's a big problem, too.

Four or five years ago, many people believed that the Internet would become a mainstream in China.

But when the Internet bubble burst, some people thought it impossible to say that China's Internet had three difficult problems: first, lack of credit and no solution to the problem of payment; second, there was no way to solve the problem of logistics; third, there were too few people in China because of the low level of average culture.

So many people give up the Internet.

But you see, those who insist on doing this and believe this trend are all on fire today.

Because these three problems are all solved now: the number of Internet users in China is almost the same as that in the United States; the problem of payment has been solved long ago; the problem of distribution, the Chinese people are using stupid methods, China's manpower is cheap, and a bicycle is sent to you. China has Chinese territory.

In 2007, among the 100 influential people in the world, China had Ma Huateng (Tencent).

Why is Tencent fire?

Tencent has a large viscosity with two hundred million people on it.

He stood in the future and stood on a trend. He did it first, so he succeeded.

At that time, some people thought that this trend was impossible. Many people ran away, and the rest of the "idiots" carried them.

Therefore, people who are successful in the Internet now gamble on the trend of gambling in the future.

The same is true in traditional industries.

I remember that in 1993, when the real estate bubble burst in Hainan, we went back to Beijing. Many people advised us not to make real estate, because China's real estate couldn't be done, and it was impossible to do it.

But we insist on doing and live.

Since 1999, real estate has become a mainstream and become a pillar industry, so we have developed with the height of the boat.

This is the trend of gambling.

Besides, why can we survive?

We have always believed that to learn well, that is to say, in a market economy, we should emphasize good people, good deeds, good money, encourage ourselves to learn advanced, invest in big money, and take the right path. In short, we must learn well, because this is also a trend.

In my view, if the market economy goes on like this, finally, a good person should have the most and the greatest opportunity.

There are more and more premiums for good people in the market now (moral premium), and the capital market has already begun to pay a premium to good people.

If you go to the SFC to approve things, Vanke may be finished in three or four months, and Jindi and Wantong can be completed in four or five months, and the average time is seven to nine months.

The reason why Vanke is faster than us is that it has been listed early, has a reputation in the capital market and the SFC, is a "good boy", and some audit steps will be omitted.

We and Jindi are also good, with fewer defects and faster approval.

But if a company with tainted history, the SFC will be screened and approved for a half year or so, some may not be able to pass the examination and approval at all.

Now, as time goes on, when a good company issues new shares on the market, investors and funds are willing to give you a high price when they buy it.

According to international experience, a good company (a clearer governance structure) probably has a premium of 5%-10%. In other words, if you are a good person and run a good company, your stock will be more expensive than others 5%-10%.

As a company, we should invest most in the trend.

The investment trend means investment strategy, because your strategy is based on this trend.

The so-called strategic orientation is to work hard in a direction and to accumulate your core competitiveness.

Opportunity oriented is what we do today and tomorrow.

The ancients said, "a gentleman is constant in mind and a villain is always determined."

Li Heng Zhi is the strategic direction. Heng Zhi Zhi is opportunity oriented. Today, we will do this and do it tomorrow.

According to historical experience, the high investment return is the trend of investment.

In other words, a company must have strategy, guide us with strategy, and develop our business according to a trend.

However, it is hard to judge the trend in terms of how you look at the future.

I think there are three ways in the future. One is to take others' history as our present and future.

Beijing's per capita GDP is US $6000 and New York is US $60 thousand, so we will take the average GDP from US $6000 to US $60 thousand, and the history of others will be our future.

This is the simplest way.

Another way is to do logical research and deduction. According to the existing knowledge of human history, we carry out logical analysis, study from economics, politics and law, and draw a judgement of trend.

The last method is to perceive, perceive and experience the future.

It is best to use both three methods at the same time, and finally synthesize a general view of the future.

If we want to see the future, we must be diligent, we must know the history of others, we must have a wealth of knowledge, and also have good experience and correct values.

Only in this way can we see the future and make arrangements for the future.

Now that the real estate market is regulated, we have to analyze what is the trend and what is the future.

I believe that in the future, when GDP per capita reaches US $10 thousand and US $twenty thousand, commercial real estate will be a more important product market, and real estate finance will be very developed. Direct financing of real estate will become a mainstream.

In the past 3 years, the concentration of the real estate market has been greatly improved. The market value of the top 10 Real Estate Company in the A share market has gone from 2 billion -30 billion to more than 10 billion yuan. The first place has exceeded 200 billion yuan, and the concentration ratio has changed very fast.

These are the future trends.

If we formulate strategies against this trend, we will certainly win.

In short, in the last few years, the good guys will survive and the smart people will survive.

This is the trend.

The highest level of investment is actually discovering what others do not see, such as trends.

A stone is a jade. You don't see the jade in it. Smart people will take this stone back and dig out jade. A piece of cultural relics is buried underground. You can't find it. Someone else finds it and takes it back. It becomes valuable.

Therefore, the highest level of investment is to see the value that others do not see, that is, to discover value.