The Weekly Growth Rate Of USDA Statistics Is Gradually Declining

According to the statistics of the US Department of Agriculture, as of February 14, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton was 3.16 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated annual US cotton output. American cotton processing and inspection came to an end, and the weekly growth rate gradually declined.

At present, the price of ICE cotton period is supported by the two positive factors of American cotton's intention to plant cotton area falling sharply and American weather causing the market to worry about supply.

According to the news released by the National Cotton Association of the United States, the intended cotton planting area of the United States in 2025 will be 9.56 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%.

As of February 11, the drought degree and coverage index of the main cotton producing areas in the United States was 128, up 73 year on year and 10 month on month; The drought degree and coverage index of Texas was 166, up 96 year on year and 7 month on month. The drought index of major production areas in the United States continued to rise.

On the domestic side, the market has certain expectations for the peak demand season of Jin, San, Yin and Si. With the rise of downstream starting load and the decline of supply pressure, Zheng Mian has become stronger recently, and it is expected that there is still some room for growth. However, the pressure above is still heavy, and we continue to focus on downstream demand and new cotton expectations.

According to the data from China Cotton Notary and Inspection Network, as of February 18, the annual cotton inspection in 2024 totaled 6.4035 million tons nationwide, accounting for about 95% of the predicted output of American farmers. The progress of domestic cotton listing is also nearing the end. At the same time, according to relevant data, as of the end of January, although the domestic cotton commercial inventory was at the highest level in the same period in recent years, it was slightly lower than that in the middle of January.

According to the feedback from some cotton trading enterprises in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in China, plus the shock and rebound of ICE cotton futures contracts since the middle of February, the industry generally judges that the cotton import quota in 2025 is still very tight, and enterprises are cautious in purchasing dollar resources (RMB resources that have been cleared are slightly better than bonded cotton and spot cotton), Recently, the cotton inventory of the main ports in China has increased to varying degrees, among which the pressure on the warehouse inventory of Qingdao Port, which is relatively well located, convenient for shipping, and relatively reasonable storage fees, has increased significantly.

According to the survey and estimation of several international cotton merchants and large trade enterprises, as of February 15, the total inventory of bonded and non bonded cotton in China's main ports may have reached 52-53 million tons, of which Qingdao Port has a relatively large increase, and Brazilian cotton and 2024/25 American cotton, Pakistani hand picked cotton, and Argentine machine picked cotton are more in port/warehouse.