Industrial Cluster: Focus On The Low Price Of American Cotton

Adjustment of supply and demand data in 2024/25:

The biggest concern of the July supply and demand report of the US Department of Agriculture is the extent of the increase in US cotton output, which has increased by 217000 tons. After the release of the report, the price of US cotton has been relatively calm, which means that the price will be stabilized in the short term. Looking forward to the medium and long term, the world will still face the pressure of increasing supply, and continue to pay attention to the subsequent weather of US cotton, And the implementation of other major domestic products.

In 24/25, the global cotton output increased by 229000 tons, including 217000 tons in the United States to 3.701 million tons, 108000 tons in China to 5.987 million tons, the same as the previous year, and 109000 tons in Pakistan; Brazil's output has not been adjusted. In the July report, the Brazilian National Commodity Company reduced Brazil's output by 21000 tons to 3.636 million tons; Continue to pay attention to the weather of American cotton and the landing of Brazil's bumper crop.

In the report in July, the planting area of American cotton was 11.67 million acres, the harvest area was 9.67 million acres, and the abandonment rate was 17.14%. The abandonment rate last month was 14.43%; The unit yield in July report was 946 kg/ha, and that in last month was 943 kg/ha

In 24/25, global consumption increased by 56000 tons month on month, including 65000 tons for India and 66000 tons for Pakistan. Global consumption recovered somewhat in 24/25, but considering the global economic growth expectations, as well as the game of big countries and geopolitical conflicts, the new year is still not a big consumption year.

The global cotton import decreased by 78000 tons month on month in 24/25, of which China's import decreased by 109000 tons to 2504000 tons, 718000 tons less than the previous year; Pakistan's imports increased by 43000 tons.

The global exports in 24/25 were down 78000 tons month on month, of which the Indian exports were down 87000 tons.

The global 24/25 ending inventory decreased by 189000 tons month on month, including 261000 tons in the United States, 22000 tons in Brazil and 153000 tons in India.

On the whole, the report of the US Department of Agriculture in July was empty. However, since the US cotton price has fallen to a low level, and the market has strong psychological expectations for the increase of US cotton production, the US cotton price performance was relatively strong after the data was released, and US cotton has some support around 70 cents. Brazil has begun to harvest cotton, and pay attention to the landing of Brazil's high yield; After the release of the July report of US Agriculture, US Cotton continued to pay attention to the weather conditions of US Cotton, and the US Cotton may maintain low volatility in the short term.