Market Trends: Imported Cotton Exceeds 400000 Tons, And Global Cotton Production Reaches Main Ports

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According to the survey and estimation of some cotton trade enterprises in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places, by the middle of December, the total cotton inventory (bonded+non bonded) in China's main ports had exceeded 400000 tons, and American cotton, Brazilian cotton, Australian cotton, Sudanese cotton, Pakistani cotton, Turkish cotton and others were in the forefront. Although American cotton inventory still ranked first, the arrival of Brazilian cotton in October December 2022/23 The warehousing volume has increased significantly compared with cotton from other regions, so the inventory gap with American cotton has continued to narrow, and the inventory gap with Australian cotton and cotton from other regions has widened.

A medium-sized cotton merchant in Huangdao said that it was predicted that the current cotton inventory in Qingdao Port, Zibo, Weifang, Jinan and other Jiaozhou Peninsula areas had increased to 2.8-3 million tons; The cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang, Nantong, Jiangyin, Nanjing and other ports is about 55-6000 tons (including about 38-4000 tons in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone); The cotton inventory in Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Shenzhen and other ports is about 6-65000 tons, and the total cotton inventory in China's main ports is expected to be 400-40200 tons. According to the industry feedback, since December, not only the cotton storage capacity of Qingdao Port has been tight and the pressure has been outstanding, but also the inbound and outbound storage of Zhangjiagang, Nantong and other cities has been blocked due to the continuous increase in the inbound and outbound volume of cotton and yarn (including pure cotton yarn, blended yarn, etc.).

According to the survey, the main contract of ICE cotton season broke 80 cents/pound and 82 cents/pound from 78.59 cents/pound last week; Although Zheng Mian's main CF2405 contract was also raised by about 600 points in response to the call, the increase in spot prices obviously did not keep pace, so under the sliding standard tariff (or 1% tariff), the internal and external cotton prices were flat or slightly inverted, and the competitiveness of port bonded cotton and Yuanyue cargo was reduced and weak.

On December 11-12, Qingdao Port Customs Clearance, the net weight of Brazilian cotton M1-1/8 (Qiangli 28/29/30GPT) in 2021/22 was quoted at 16150-16250 yuan/ton; The net weight quotation of Brazilian cotton M1-5/32 (Qiangli 28/29/30GPT) in 2022/23 is 16550-16800 yuan/ton. At present, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan and other inland warehouses "Double 29" (or single 30) Xinjiang machine picked cotton is quoted at 16400-16650 yuan/ton, which is basically in line with the quotation of Brazilian cotton for customs clearance.