Market Analysis: Demand Weakens, Global Clothing Consumption Growth Slows Down From August To September

Because of the increasing inflation pressure, the cost of living in many countries and regions around the world is increasing, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the global economic development is facing severe challenges and the risk of economic recession is rising. According to the world economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund in October, although the global economic growth rate will remain at 3.2% in 2022, the growth rate in 2023 may drop to 2.7%, or even lower.

Under the influence of the global economic downturn and consumer demand downturn, the world's major textile and clothing retail markets are showing a trend of weak demand and slow growth, and the textile and clothing industry still faces many challenges in boosting consumption.

　　 01

In September, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 8.2% year-on-year and 0.4% month on month. The effect of several interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve on easing inflation was less than expected. In September, the total retail sales volume of the United States was 684 billion US dollars, which was the same as that of the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, which was the lowest growth rate since April this year. In the same month, the retail sales of clothing (including footwear) in the United States was 26.2 billion US dollars, a slight increase of 0.5% on a month on month basis, and a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. After excluding the impact of inflation (CPI of clothing products increased by 5.5% year-on-year in September), the actual consumption of clothing in the United States showed a negative growth.

In August, Canada's inflation rate fell to 7% for two consecutive months due to the fall in gasoline prices. In the same month, Canada's total retail sales increased by 7% year-on-year and slightly increased by 0.7% month on month; The sales volume of clothing products was 2.45 billion Canadian dollars (about 1.81 billion US dollars), down 0.2% month on month, 4.8% higher than the same period last year, and the growth rate further narrowed.

　　 02

According to Eurostat, the euro zone's adjusted CPI rose 9.9% in September from a year earlier, hitting a record high in a row. Soaring energy prices are still the main driving force. Inflation rates in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and other major economies of the European Union are also rising.

In August, the total retail sales of 27 EU countries decreased by 1.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month on month. Under the double impact of high inflation and energy crisis, European consumers' living costs have soared, their real purchasing power has dropped sharply, and clothing retail has been under obvious pressure.

In August, the retail sales of textile, clothing and leather products in France were 4.05 billion euro (about 4.07 billion US dollars), a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% and a month on month increase of 2.4%; Germany's clothing retail sales in August decreased by 7.9% year-on-year and 6% month on month.

The retail sales of clothing in the Netherlands in August decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, which is far from the 11.6% growth rate in July.

With the UK inflation rate climbing to 10.1% in September, consumer confidence in the UK is close to an all-time low. Retail sales in the UK fell by 1.4% month on month in September, exceeding market expectations. UK textile, clothing and footwear sales in September reached 4.95 billion pounds (about US $5.75 billion), up 7.4% year-on-year.

　　 03

From August to September, inflation rose in many Asian countries, and the actual demand for clothing consumption was still weak.

In August, Japan's CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the sales of textile, clothing and apparel were 588 billion yen (about 4.03 billion US dollars), up 7.8% year-on-year. 4% month on month.

Turkey's inflation rate reached 80.2% in August, the highest in 24 years. Retail sales of textiles, clothing and footwear increased by 3.2% month on month and 12.6% year-on-year.

Singapore's CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in August, still at a high level. In the same month, retail sales of clothing and footwear fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 64.7%.

In September, China's CPI rose by 0.3% month on month and slightly increased to 2.8% over the same period. In the same month, the sales volume of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles above the quota was 107.2 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% over the same period and an increase of 11% on a month on month basis. From January to September, the total retail sales volume was 927.3 billion yuan, down 4% year on year. The current development of China's clothing consumer market is generally stable and good, but the recovery of rapid growth is still facing certain challenges.

　　 04

　　 Oceania - Australia

In August, Australia's retail sales of clothing, footwear and personal goods reached a $2.94 billion (about $1.9 billion), up 80.4% year-on-year in the low base effect of last year.

　　 South America - Brazil

Brazil's CPI rose 8.7% year-on-year in August, down 0.4% from the previous month, and contracted for two consecutive months. In the same month, Brazil's clothing prices rose significantly, with the retail sales of fabrics, clothing and footwear increasing by 13% on a month on month basis, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%.

　　 Africa - South Africa

Affected by the fall in fuel prices, South Africa's inflation rate fell slightly to 7.6% in August. Retail sales in South Africa rose 2.0% year-on-year in the month. South Africa's retail sales of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods were 13.56 billion rand (about US $760 million), up 4.8% year-on-year.

(source: China textile international production capacity cooperation enterprise alliance)

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