Market Analysis: Global Production And Demand Forecast Cotton Trend Analysis

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According to the global production and demand forecast released by the U.S. Department of agriculture in September, the U.S. cotton inventory at the beginning of 2022 / 23, output, export and final inventory will increase. Among them, the initial inventory increased by 250000 bales, and the output increased by 1.3 million bales to 13.8 million bales. The output of most major cotton producing areas was increased, and the export volume of American cotton was increased by 600000 bales because of the increase in the proportion of American cotton available for export. The final inventory of the United States increased by 900000 bales to 2.7 million bales. The average price of upland cotton farms was 96 cents, down 1 cent on a month earlier.

In 2022 / 23, the global cotton production and final inventory increased, while the consumption decreased. Global cotton production increased by 1.4 million bales, offset by increases in the United States, Australia, China and Turkey. Global consumption decreased by 460000 bales month on month, mainly from Pakistan and Vietnam. There was no change in global cotton exports, with increases in exports from the United States, Australia and Mexico offsetting decreases in exports from Brazil and Uzbekistan. On imports, Pakistan's imports increased by 200000 bales, offsetting the decrease in imports from Turkey and Vietnam. Global cotton terminal inventory increased by 2 million bales to 84.8 million bales.

In China, in 2022 / 23, China's cotton sown area was 303.4 thousand hectares (45.51 million mu), an increase of 0.2% over the previous year. In 2021, the purchase price of seed cotton reached the highest level in the past decade. In addition, Xinjiang continued to implement the cotton target price policy in 2022, so the cotton farmers had a high enthusiasm for planting cotton. It is estimated that the cotton yield per hectare is 1892 kg (126 kg / mu), which is the same as last year. Cotton output was 5.98 million tons, an increase of 0.2% over the previous year.

In 2022, the central reserve cotton rotation work started on July 13. As of September 23, 311000 tons of cotton were listed, and the actual transaction volume was 59480 tons, with a transaction rate of 19.13%; The highest transaction price is 16490 yuan / ton and the lowest transaction price is 15658 yuan / ton.

From the supply side, the central reserve cotton turns into zero transaction, the domestic commercial inventory of cotton is higher than that in the same period of 2021, and the quotation of excellent index resources is scarce; In the new year, seed cotton has been harvested in succession. Although most of the ginning enterprises have not yet started weighing and processing, the overall supply is still loose.

From the demand side, in the peak season of traditional textile, the start-up rate of cotton mills increased slowly. Although the goods taken by textile enterprises were improved compared with the previous period and the inventory pressure was slightly slower, the terminal demand has not recovered significantly, and the overall transaction is lack of continuity and stability, and cotton procurement is still dominated by buy as you go.

Generally speaking, seed cotton has been listed one after another in the new year, the ginning enterprises have a strong psychology of price reduction, and the textile market order price is not warm; The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September, in line with market expectations, and the US dollar index continued to break new historical highs, and the commodity market was under pressure; With the end of the National Day holiday, the willingness of downstream textile enterprises to prepare goods may increase slightly; Therefore, it is expected that the future cotton prices or weak shock operation.