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Market Analysis: It Is Difficult To Improve The Operation Efficiency Of Short-Term Cotton Industry Chain

2022/10/13 13:34:00 0

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In October, the cotton yarn market entered the traditional "silver ten" peak season, but the marginal improvement of demand was less than expected, domestic sales orders were short, and foreign trade orders were still not in large volume. With the rise of cotton price, spinning profit is compressed. Some cotton spinning enterprises say that cotton spinning with more than 16000 yuan / ton has no profit at present. The demand and spinning profit are not good, and the expected quantity of new cotton increases and decreases the price. Some cotton spinning enterprises take the initiative to reduce the starting load, reduce the demand for cotton, and wait for the centralized listing of new cotton.

According to market research, as of October 12, cotton yarn inventory of Shandong cotton spinning enterprises was 44 days, 6 days lower than the same period of last month, and 17 days higher than the same period of last year; The processing profit of high-end 32 count pure cotton yarn was 368.85 yuan / ton, which was 714.31 yuan / ton lower than the same period of last month and 986.52 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last year; The available days of cotton inventory were only 22 days, 6 days lower than the same period of last month and 10 days lower than the same period of last year; The operating load was 54%, 1% lower than the end of September and 3% lower than the same period last year.

In the short term, the operation efficiency of the cotton industry chain is difficult to improve rapidly, and the new cotton listing progress is slow. In addition, the seed cotton price is low and rising, which forms a strong support for the cotton market. It is estimated that the cotton spot price in October may be easy to rise but difficult to fall. In the medium term, with the gradual recovery of the operation efficiency of the cotton industry chain, the contradiction between supply and demand in the cotton market will be more prominent, and the probability of cotton price decline in November will increase.

At present, the main contradiction in the market is concentrated on the supply side, and the lint supply is expected to be more relaxed in the new year. It is preliminarily estimated that the new cotton production in this year may increase by 300000-500000 tons. After a large number of new cotton are put on the market in November, the effective supply of cotton market increases sharply and the downward pressure of spot price increases. From the demand side, with the end of the "golden nine silver ten" traditional peak season, the performance of downstream orders is not as good as that of the same period in previous years, textile enterprises have great pressure on product inventory, and cotton textile enterprises may continue to limit production operation under low profit, and cotton demand is not expected to be optimistic. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the changes of national cotton storage policy, the follow-up of downstream demand, and the listing of seed cotton.