Analysis Of Securities Companies: Clothing Retail Recovered Steadily, Domestic Textile Export Overall Boom

Guoxin Securities released a research report that the consumer side is optimistic about the growth track under the shock recovery, while the manufacturing side pays attention to the downstream inventory inflection point. In terms of clothing consumption, the epidemic situation has improved since June, and the consumption from July to August has maintained a good momentum. Local sports brands have maintained a good growth. They are optimistic about maintaining the shock recovery trend in the follow-up period and maintaining the growth advantage of sports track. At the manufacturing export side, foreign demand is expected to weaken, but the cost and exchange rate changes continue to be favorable. We are optimistic about the layout opportunities of enterprises with outstanding medium and long-term growth after the fall of brand inventory.

Investment suggestions: Hong Kong stock companies mainly recommend Li Ning (02331), Anta sports (02020), Shenzhou International (02313), Tebu International (01368), bosden (03998), taobo (06110), Huali group (300979. SZ), Taihua new materials (603055. SH), Weixing shares (002003. SZ), biyinlefen (002832. SZ), baoxiniao (002154. SZ), Shengtai group (605138. SH), Lutai a (000726. SZ) are recommended by Hong Kong stocks.

Data tracking:

1) brand retail: clothing retail increased by 5% under the low base in August, and the online performance of key brands was better. Clothing retail sales in August were + 5.1% year-on-year in low base, but the growth rate was less than that of July in the same period of 2019; In July 2022, tmall Jingdong sports shoes / clothes were - 9% / - 17% year on year; In August, Anta / FILA / Li Ning / Tebu were + 9% / + 11% / + 1% / + 13%, Nike / ADI / lululemon / new Bailun were - 33% / - 61% / + 57% / + 37%, and biyinlefen / baoxiniao / haggis were + 14% / + 59% / + 23% year on year respectively; The top three sports brand sales are Nike, Adidas and Adidas; The top three luxury goods sales are LV, Gucci, and balischika.

2) manufacturing export: compared with 2019, Vietnam's export growth slowed down in August, and domestic export was still good. Vietnam's textile exports increased by 23% in August and 11% / 1% in July / August compared with that in 2019; Domestic textile and clothing exports increased by 0% and 5% in August, showing an apparent slowdown. However, compared with that in 2019, textile exports in July / August increased by 26% / 25%, and clothing exports increased by 17% / 18%. In the past week, the start-up rate of Shengze loom was - 6% to 66% year-on-year, reflecting that domestic demand was weak, but the decline rate was narrower than that in August (- 12%).

3) cost: the price of raw materials decreased compared with the previous period. After the previous round of price reduction, the domestic cotton price continued to maintain a low level, and the foreign cotton price rose slightly to RMB 22000 / T compared with the beginning of August, but it was still low compared with the second quarter; PA66 chips showed a slight downward trend after August, and the cost pressure of manufacturing enterprises is expected to be small.

0.0% + 3.0% / 6.0% of clothing sales in the United States; Retail sales of clothing and footwear in UK in August + 8.4% (June / July + 12.5% / 15.7%); Holiday retail sales in the United States are expected to slow down; H & M's revenue grew only 3% in the third quarter; Zara parent's first half revenue + 24%.

Risk tips: repeated epidemic situation; The competition worsened; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Systemic risk.