National Bureau Of Statistics: China Purchasing Managers Index Continued To Fall In April

On April 30, 2022, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

The business climate index, business activity index and purchasing activity index decreased by 41.4% and 41.4% respectively, while the manufacturing activity index, business activity index and manufacturing output index continued to slow down to 4.4% and 4.4% respectively.

1. The purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry continued to decline

In April, the PMI of the manufacturing industry dropped to 47.4%, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry continued to decline.

(1) the decline in production and demand has increased. This round of public health events are numerous, wide and frequent, and some enterprises have cut production and stopped production. The production index and new order index were 44.4% and 42.6% respectively, 5.1% and 6.2% lower than that of the previous month. The production of enterprises decreased significantly and the market demand continued to decline. At the same time, the distribution time index of suppliers continued to decline this month, and the inventory index of finished products rose to the highest point in recent years. Many enterprises reported that the logistics and transportation difficulties increased, and even the supply of main raw materials and key parts was difficult, the sales of finished products was not smooth, and the inventory was overstocked. The production and operation of upstream and downstream related enterprises were greatly affected.

(2) the price index fluctuates at a high level. The purchasing price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 64.2% and 54.4%, respectively, which were lower than 1.9% and 2.3% of the previous month, and continued to be at a higher level in the near future. In terms of the raw material processing industry, the price of raw materials and fuel processing industry, such as coal processing industry, rolling price index and other downstream industries continued to increase by 70%, respectively.

(3) the operation of some industries is relatively stable. Although the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry continues to decline, some industries still operate smoothly. Among them, the PMI of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine beverage refined tea, nonmetallic mineral products, railway, ship, aerospace equipment and other industries that guarantee the basic people's livelihood are all higher than the critical point, and the expected index of production and operation activities is above 55.0%.

2. The index of non manufacturing business activities continued to fall

In April, the non manufacturing business activity index was 41.9%, lower than 6.5% of the previous month, and the overall non manufacturing business activity continued to slow down.

(1) the decline in the service industry has increased. Under the severe impact of public health events, the business activity index of the service industry was 6.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, falling to 40.0%. The business activity index of the service industry dropped significantly for two consecutive months, and the overall service industry weakened. According to the industry situation, 19 of the 21 industries surveyed are in the contraction range, among which the business activity index of contact aggregation industries such as air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management is still in the low contraction range; Wholesale, postal, financial and other industries fell to the contraction range, and the total business volume changed from up to down. However, the business activity index of telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services continued to be in the expansion range, and the total business volume maintained growth, which ensured the stable and orderly operation of the economy and society.

(2) the construction industry keeps expanding. The business activity index of the construction industry was 52.7%, lower than 5.4 percentage points of the previous month, still in the expansion range. Among them, the business activity index of civil engineering construction industry was 61.0%, which was in the high prosperity range for two consecutive months, and the new order index was 52.3%, which continued the expansion trend, indicating that with the moderate advance of some major infrastructure construction, the civil engineering construction industry maintained a rapid construction progress, which played a supporting role in the economic and social recovery and development.

Third, PMI continued to shrink the composite output index

In April, the comprehensive PMI output index was 42.7%, lower than 6.1% of the previous month, indicating that the prosperity level of production and operation of Chinese enterprises has declined. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, are 44.4% and 41.9% respectively.

However, it should also be noted that the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth have not changed. In particular, in recent years, the relevant departments have further coordinated the prevention and control of public health incidents, the smooth flow of logistics and the supply of goods, and increased the efforts of helping enterprises to bail out, which is conducive to stabilizing the confidence of market participants, In April, the expected index of production and operation activities of the manufacturing industry and the expected index of non manufacturing business activities remained in the boom range. With the effective control of public health events and the effect of policies, enterprises are expected to gradually improve.