Prosperity Of China'S Cotton Textile Industry In February 2022

In February, thanks to the joint efforts of macro policies and the efforts of market players, the recovery momentum of the national economy has improved, showing bursts of warmth, laying a solid foundation for a good start in the first quarter of this year. From the industry point of view, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the complex and severe international environment, as well as the spread of domestic epidemic situation and other multiple factors, the start-up of enterprises continued to decline, production and sales were affected to a certain extent, and the industry prosperity index fell periodically. With the increasingly complex international economic environment, the downstream market is not as expected, and enterprise confidence has declined.

In February, China's cotton textile boom index was 46.39, down 1.14 from January, and continued to be below the dry and prosperous line. From the classification index, among the seven sub indexes which constitute the prosperity index of China's cotton textile, they are all below the dry and prosperous line, among which the raw material purchasing index and enterprise confidence index have a higher decline.

　　 Raw material purchasing index

In February, the raw material purchasing index was 48.36, down 3.83 from January, which was below the Kuo Rong line. From the market price point of view, driven by the rise of crude oil, agricultural products and other prices, cotton prices at home and abroad rose significantly after the Spring Festival. Due to the shortage of downstream orders, cotton prices lost support, and then fell back. In terms of non cotton fiber, prices rose sharply compared with January. In the same month, the cotook a index representing foreign cotton prices averaged 138.41 cents / pound, up 6.06 cents / pound, or 4.58%, on a month on month basis; The average monthly price of 3128 grade cotton in China was 22836 yuan / ton, up 176 yuan / ton or 0.78% on a month on month basis; The average short month price of 1.4d direct spinning polyester was 7683 yuan / ton, up 266 yuan / ton or 3.59% month on month; The average monthly price of mainstream viscose fiber was 12928 yuan / ton, up 419 yuan / ton, or 3.35%. From the purchasing situation, due to the replenishment of stocks before the Spring Festival and the shortage of downstream orders after the festival, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is not high, and the purchasing volume index of cotton and non cotton fiber has decreased significantly, which drives the decline of raw material purchasing index.

　　 Stock index of raw materials

In February, the raw material inventory index was 47.68, down 2.76 from January, which was below the Kuo Rong line. In the same month, the cotton price is high and low, enterprises are cautious and wait-and-see, not much procurement, non cotton fiber just need to make up the warehouse. At the same time, due to the Spring Festival holiday, enterprises start to decline, production slows down, and raw material consumption decreases. Both cotton inventory index and non cotton fiber inventory index were located below the Kuo Rong line, and decreased significantly. In February, cotton inventory index was 46.63, down 2.64 from January; Non cotton fiber inventory index was 48.73, down 2.89 from January.

　 Production index

In February, the production index was 43.94, down 1.39 from January. According to the investigation of China Cotton Textile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the "China Cotton Association"), cotton textile enterprises have started operation after the Spring Festival holiday, and some enterprises in some regions are affected by the epidemic situation, and the rate of employees returning to work is not high. Overall, the opening rate of enterprises after the festival is more than 80%. From the perspective of product output, the production of enterprises is mainly based on the orders before the year, and the gauze output is lower than that in January, and the index value continues to be in the contraction range. In February, the yarn yield index was 43.54, which was 2.78 lower than that in January; The cloth yield index was 43.03, 1.48 lower than that in January.

　　 Product sales index

In February, the product sales index was 49.55, up 2.32 from January. From the market price point of view, the price of gauze after the festival was temporarily increased driven by the rise of cotton price. However, due to the shrinkage of downstream demand, the rising trend failed to continue and began to fall back in the last ten days. The average monthly price of 32 Cotton Combed Yarns was 29428 yuan / ton, up 1043 yuan / ton or 3.68% on a month on month basis, The average monthly price of pure cotton grey fabric (32 * 32 130 * 70 2 / 1 47 "twill) was 6.36 yuan / m, up 0.07 yuan / m or 1.1% month on month. From the perspective of market sales, affected by uncertain factors such as raw material prices, downstream home textile and clothing customers had a strong wait-and-see mood and sales slowed down. The sales index of yarn and cloth were all below the dry and prosperous line, and the decline of yarn sales index was higher than that of cloth sales index.

　　 Product inventory index

In February, the product inventory index was 48.22, up 1.54 from January. After the construction of the seventh day of the first day of the year, the inquiry of downstream customers was relatively active, but the actual signing rate was not high, and the market was relatively cold compared with the same period in previous years. Due to the spread of the epidemic in some areas, the enterprise's freight transportation has been affected to varying degrees, and the product inventory has increased slightly. From the perspective of product category, although the stock index of yarn and cloth warehouse increased compared with January, they were all located below the critical point and in the contraction range. Among them, the yarn stock index was 48.33, up 2.12 from January; The stock index of buku was 48.05, up 0.67 from January.

　　 Business operation index

In February, the enterprise operating index was 45.79, down 0.27 from January, and continued to be below the dry and prosperous line. After this year's Spring Festival, the market purchase and sales were slow, not as in previous years. The upstream raw material prices continue to run at a high level, the production costs of enterprises continue to increase, while the pattern of price transmission is not changed, the enterprise profits continue to be squeezed, the product profit margin decreases, and the business pressure continues. According to the survey data, 65.35% of the enterprises indicated that the main business income decreased, which was 48.28% higher than that of the rising enterprises; 59.47% of the total profits decreased, 35.87% higher than that of the rising enterprises.

　　 Enterprise confidence index

In February, the enterprise confidence index was 45.82, down 3.51 from January. At present, the global epidemic continues to spread. With the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, the challenges to emerging countries continue to increase. At the same time, the geopolitical pattern is becoming more complex and the external instability and uncertainty are increasing. The impact of the epidemic situation in some areas of China is still continuing. The downstream consumption demand is lower than expected, and the traditional peak season expected by enterprises is greatly discounted, and the confidence in the future market is lower than that in the earlier period. According to the survey data, 11.19% of the enterprises think that the future market is optimistic and good, and 52.99% think that the future market is weak.

Note: the prosperity index of China's cotton textile industry is collected from nearly 500 secondary cotton textile enterprises in China. Referring to the establishment methods of national manufacturing PMI and other indexes, it is concluded that when the index is higher than 50, it means that the prosperity degree of cotton textile industry in this month is better than that of last month; if it is lower than 50, it means that the prosperity degree of this month is lower than that of last month.

(source: China Cotton Association)

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