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Market Analysis: Investigation On The Resumption Of Polyester Filament Production After The Festival

2022/2/9 15:22:00 0

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On the first trading day after the festival, polyester filament market ushered in a good start, with both volume and price rising. However, with the decline of overnight crude oil and polymerization raw materials, the cost support is weakened, and polyester filament manufacturers are lack of driving force to continue to rise, and the price resistance of downstream users is heating up, and the production and sales of polyester filament are greatly reduced.

According to Longzhong's survey, the domestic polyester filament industry started 80.26% of its total production during the Spring Festival holiday, and most of the employees returned to work from February 6 to 8. After the festival, Jiangsu Lixin plant was restarted and Anji Huayi production line was restarted. The polyester filament production started to rise to 80.59%, up 0.33% compared with that before the festival. In this week, several sets of devices in Ningbo, Baihong in Fujian and Jinxin in Shaoxing began to warm up and restart There are maintenance plans after the new Fengming Festival, so the industry as a whole has little fluctuation, which is expected to maintain around 82%.

Table 1 maintenance list of domestic polyester filament device before and after the Spring Festival in 2022

Unit: 10000 tons / year

corporate name	Capacity involved	Maintenance start time	Planned restart time
Keqiao hengming	twenty	December 27, 2021	Undetermined
Fujian longitude and latitude	seventeen point five	December 29, 2021	February 10th
Wu Jiang Lixin	eight	End of December 2021	February 7th
Anji Huayi	ten point five	January 4th	February 7th
Ningbo Quandi	seventeen point five	January 10th	February 8-10
Zhejiang Tiansheng	five	January 10th	Undetermined
Weifang Huabao	twenty	January 12th	February 10th
Ningbo Huaxing	sixteen	January 12th	Undetermined
Ningbo dawao	eighteen point two	January 15th	Undetermined
Changshu Tongheng	eighteen	January 16th	Undetermined
Ningbo Jinsheng	eight	Mid January	Undetermined
Zhangjiagang Xinxin	twelve point six	Mid January	Undetermined
Shaoxing Jinxin	eighteen	January 18th	February 8-10
Taicang Changle	twenty-five	January 20th	February 15th
Ningbo Zhuocheng	eighteen	January 22nd	February 15th
Tongkun Hengsheng	fifteen	January 23rd	Undetermined
Taicang Shenjiu	twenty	January 24th	Undetermined
Fujian Baihong	twenty-eight	January 24th	Undetermined
Tianlong new materials	twenty	January 27th	Undetermined
Total before the festival	three hundred and fifteen point three
Tongkun Hengsheng	twenty	Mid February	Undetermined
Tongkun Hengyou	thirty	Mid February	Undetermined
Xinfengming	thirty	Mid February	February 28th
Xinfengming	thirty	Mid February	March 7th
Total after the festival	one hundred and ten
total	four hundred and twenty-five point three

Source: Longzhong information

Holiday: the international oil price continued to rise, cost support, polyester filament ushered in a good start after the festival, the enterprise's quotation increased gradually, and downstream users worried about the increase in procurement costs, moderately replenished the warehouse, the overall production and sales within the day was 50-60%, higher production and sales were more than 100%. However, with the oil price callback, the cost side support is weakened, polyester filament manufacturers are more stable and wait-and-see, the market is stagnant, the resistance of downstream users to high prices is rising, some transactions are more than even, and the production and sales rate of most enterprises has dropped to less than 30%. The reason is that most of the downstream weaving enterprises plan to return to work and production in the middle of the month. At present, only a few enterprises are driving, and most enterprises are waiting for their employees to return to work. The weaving operation rate is expected to be on the right track by the end of February. However, before the festival, most weaving manufacturers have prepared goods, so the purchasing enthusiasm after the festival is not high, which depends on the price of raw materials.

Table 2 closing and starting schedule of weaving enterprises in major areas of China during Spring Festival holiday

region	Planned start time	Holiday start-up load
Shengze	After the eighth day of the first month
Changshu	From the eighth day of the first month to the fifteenth day of the first month	Basically all parking, only a small amount of maintenance
Taicang	After the eighth day of the first month
Jiangyin	From the tenth day of the first month to the fifteenth day of the first month
Siyang	On the eighth day of the first month
Changzhou	From the tenth day of the first month to the fifteenth day of the first month
Xiaoshan	From the eighth day of the first month to the tenth day of the first month
Shaoxing	From the eighth day of the first month to the tenth day of the first month
Haining	From the eighth day of the first month to the fifteenth day of the first month	It basically stops all vehicles, and about two-thirds of the local ammunition loading enterprises stop
Huzhou	On the eighth day of the first month	On the scale, most enterprises maintain the normal operation of the Spring Festival
Taizhou	After the eighth day of the first month
Changle	On the eighth day of the first month	Almost all stops, orders of some large factories are OK, and it is expected to maintain the startup load of around 10% during the holidays.
Quanzhou	From the eighth day of the first month to the tenth day of the first month	During the holidays, the basic comprehensive parking is considered
Shantou	From the eighth day of the first month to the tenth day of the first month
Anhui	From the eighth day of the first month to the fifteenth day of the first month

Source: Longzhong information

Fig. 1 Comparison of comprehensive starting rate of water jet and chemical fiber weaving in 2021-2022

To be specific, most of the downstream textile enterprises concentrate on returning to work from the eighth day of the first month to the fifteenth day of the first month, and the earlier enterprises return to work on the eighth day of the first month. As of February 8, the comprehensive start-up rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 30.25%, which was 8.74% higher than that before the festival. At present, some enterprises opened on the eighth day of the first month are not fully put into production, The main reason is that several migrant workers are not fully in place, and most of them are still at home and have not returned home. At present, the textile raw materials in the upper reaches of the new year are getting off to a good start. However, the downstream users mostly prepare their goods before the year, and do not consider taking delivery in the near future. After the start of the new year, the orders are not transmitted to the users. Only the orders received before the year are relatively low, so there is no plan and arrangement for goods preparation. In the follow-up, it is expected that the full centralized resumption time will be concentrated in the next week, when the terminal textile weaving will be fully put into production as scheduled.