The Textile Index Reached Its Highest Level Since August Last Year, And Cotton Prices Approached A Decade High

According to the BPI of business agency, as of September 30, 2021, the domestic commodity price index (BPI) was 1260 points, a record high in the cycle, up 90.91% from the lowest point of 660 on February 3, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The textile index also reached the highest level since August last year. As of September 30, 2021, the textile index was 1007 points, 15 points higher than the beginning of September, 12.89% lower than 1156 points on September 3, 2018, and 47.87% higher than the lowest point 681 on August 13, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

From the perspective of price, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in September 2021, among which 5 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 29.4% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; The top three commodities were nylon FDY (8.25%), cotton yarn 32S (6.49%) and lint (6.38%). There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; The top three products were viscose staple (- 6.71%), rayon yarn (- 4.48%) and dried cocoon (- 3.23%), with an average monthly increase or decrease of 2.28%.

New cotton grabs us cotton rises sharply, cotton price approaches 10-year high

On September 29, the main contract price of cotton futures on ice rose for the seventh consecutive trading day, and the settlement price exceeded $1 for the first time in ten years, creating a new historical height, which has not been touched since 2011. Ice cotton futures have risen 48% in the past year. Domestic cotton prices also rose simultaneously. As of September 30, cf2201 contract closed at 20005 yuan / ton, a record high in nearly eight years. The spot price has been fluctuating since April last year. As of September 30, the average spot price was 19113 yuan / ton, up 70.37% compared with the beginning of April 2020, approaching a ten-year high. Due to the foreign epidemic situation, production was hindered, orders returned to China, and cotton demand was strong. At the same time, downstream and traders actively seized new cotton to jointly push up cotton prices. In the strong boost of raw material cost, some cotton yarn follow the price increase. New cotton acquisition curtain opened, the price rise far beyond the downstream textile enterprises bear capacity, alert to market callback risk.

Nylon FDY ranks first in chemical fiber Market

It can be seen from the textile commodity price list in September 2021 that some products in the chemical fiber market are not willing to be outdone. Supported by the favorable cost, the nylon industry maintained an upward trend. Among them, the growth rate of nylon FDY was the most obvious, with a monthly increase of 8.25%, ranking first, followed by polyamide POY and nylon DTY, with an increase of 3.97% and 3.90% respectively. The maintenance of raw material caprolactam plant has increased, and the market supply is in short supply. The current market price has exceeded 16000 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of more than 10%. The supply of cyclohexanone, another raw material, was also tight, with the market rising to 12880 yuan / ton, up nearly 20% compared with the beginning of the month. It is estimated that in the short term, nylon market is still expected to rise under the stimulation of traditional peak season signals and the continuous promotion of cost side.

PTA price for planned maintenance of multiple units can still be expected

In the first ten days of September, PTA maintenance equipment was restarted, and the operating rate of the industry increased to more than 80%. Due to the weak demand, the PTA factory was in sufficient supply, and the inventory was significantly increased. Especially, the upgrading of the energy "double control" policy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has increased the impact on the weaving industry and significantly increased the shutdown and production reduction. Since the end of the month, PTA maintenance efforts have been strengthened, and the current industry operating load is around 76%. As of September 30, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5069 yuan / ton, up 3.33% compared with the beginning of the month and 53.10% higher than that at the beginning of the month. Next, a number of PTA units announced maintenance plans, and Hengli Petrochemical contract supply in October was 60%, the supply side will be improved. However, due to the strong support of crude oil price and the gradual implementation of plant maintenance in the later stage, PTA price can still be expected.

Good cost boost polyester price recovery

In September, polyester filament factory continued to accumulate stock, and periodic price reduction and promotion were given priority to. With the increase of production reduction and production restriction, the accumulation rate of polyester filament was slowed down. At the same time, under the boost of raw materials, the late ten days began to rise significantly. Therefore, the overall market in September showed a trend of first shock and then rebound. Among them, polyester FDY rose the most significantly, with a monthly increase of 6.35% as of September 30, followed by polyester DTY, polyester POY and polyester staple fiber, with an increase of 5.38%, 4.95% and 3.52% respectively. Affected by the "double control" policy, the more downstream the impact is, especially after the Mid Autumn Festival, the weaving operating rate has dropped sharply to a low level in the same period in recent years. The operating load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been reduced to less than 50%, and the demand side has been upgraded. But in the case of reduction of production and maintenance and raw material prices continue to be strong, polyester market will continue to explore.

Business agency analysts believe that the current terminal textile industry "gold nine" is not enough to show fatigue, restricting action. In terms of export, due to the return of overseas orders, clothing export maintained a good growth trend. From January to August 2021, the cumulative export of textile and clothing reached US $19.468 billion, an increase of 5.90%, of which the textile export was US $92.773 billion, down 11.47%, and the clothing export was US $105.695 billion, an increase of 27.95%. However, we need to be alert to the fact that domestic retail clothing is in a declining state. From January to August, the total retail sales of textile and clothing category reached 856.47 billion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year. However, the retail sales in August were only 89.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%.

The "double control" policy has affected the whole textile industry chain. Under the background of the general rise of bulk commodities, it is expected that the cotton textile industry chain will still be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term due to the sustained rise of American cotton and the high cost of domestic new cotton rush. Most products in the chemical fiber market benefit from the strong support of the cost side, and the future market is still optimistic. On the demand side, the production restriction of factories in September reduced the products to a low level. If the orders in the terminal consumption peak season in October improved, the digestion of inventory in various links would be accelerated, which would be conducive to the recovery of industrial profits. Overall, the textile market in October is still to maintain strong shock.