"Qualitative Change" Of Real Estate Market: Second Hand House Prices Fall Into The Mainstream

Under the continuous regulation and control, the real estate market has finally changed from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change".

On September 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in August, as well as the real estate investment and sales data of the first eight months. In many data indicators, the change of quantity and price is the most attractive.

In August this year, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 125.45 million square meters, with a sales volume of 1261.7 billion yuan. Both year-on-year or month on month, both declined for two consecutive months.

In terms of price, the price increase in large and medium-sized cities in August 70 was mainly flat and falling. Second hand housing prices, which are regarded as market leading indicators, have dropped by 34 cities, and for the first time in recent years, they have exceeded the number of cities that have risen.

If we take the second-hand house price which is more market-oriented as a reference, the change of the property market in August can be summarized as "both the quantity and the price fall". Many analysts believe that there is a "turning point" in the property market. Under the continuous regulation and control of both sides of supply and demand, the adjustment period after rapid development is coming. As a traditional peak season, "gold, silver and ten" will be insufficient.

Under the continuous regulation and control, the real estate market has finally changed from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change". Visual China

The guiding price policy of second-hand housing is effective

Since this year, the growth curve of real estate sales has been downward. In the first eight months of this year, China's commercial housing sales area was 1141930000 square meters, an increase of 15.9% over the same period last year; The sales volume of commercial housing was 11904.7 billion yuan, up 22.8% year on year. Compared with the growth rate of more than 100% at the beginning of the year (January February this year), it has slowed down significantly.

On the one hand, it is because after the middle of this year, the growth rate of market sales is gradually weak; On the other hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, the base was low at the beginning of last year. Since then, the market has gradually recovered and the base has been significantly increased.

Since the second half of this year, the transaction scale of the real estate market has fallen down after rising. In July and August, the monthly transaction volume continued to decline, and the sales area of commercial housing in August was even lower than that in the same period in 2019.

Pan Hao, a senior analyst at Shell Research Institute, pointed out that in addition to the high base of last year, the sales decline caused by seasonal factors and policy factors should not be ignored. According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, the real estate market regulation policies were issued 36 times in August. Since April, the frequency of regulation and control has continued to increase.

Among them, the recent centralized second-hand housing price adjustment has directly affected the transaction price.

"Second hand housing guidance price" refers to the reference price of second-hand housing transactions. Recently, 13 cities, including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hefei, Xi'an and Dongguan, have adjusted the guiding prices of second-hand houses, so as to curb the excessive real transaction prices. Judging from the housing price performance in August, this adjustment effect is very obvious.

In August this year, the average month on month increase of new house prices in the first, second and third tier cities were 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.2% respectively, mainly falling and flat. During the same period, the second-hand house price rose by 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.1%, slightly lower than that of new housing.

In terms of cities, in the case of new house prices still rising, the number of cities where the prices of second-hand houses fell in August reached 34, and the number of cities that rose was only 27. If we put aside the impact of the epidemic at the beginning of last year, the number of cities with second-hand house prices rising reached the lowest in the last six years. Among them, the second and third tier cities have become the main body of the decline, while Kunming, Nanchong, Shijiazhuang and Mudanjiang have the highest price drop.

Shell Research Institute believes that in addition to the guidance of price adjustment factors, the market downward expectations in the second-hand housing market to pass faster. Relatively speaking, there are still first-hand and second-hand reverse hanging under the new house price limit in key cities, which attracts the demand of purchasing houses to turn to the new housing market.

"The inflection point of national house price has appeared." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that after September 2021, with the return of credit policy from loose to normal, the future housing price growth is expected to slow down, and the number of cities with house price decline will continue to increase.

"Gold nine silver ten" fear of failure

The arguments supporting the "turning point" include not only changes in quantity and price, but also changes in a series of indicators such as investment, financing and land acquisition.

In August this year, the (cumulative) growth rate of real estate investment across the country fell to 10.9% from 38.3% at the beginning of the year. In addition to the double-digit growth in the central region, the growth rate in the eastern, Western and northeast regions has dropped to a single digit. In the same period, the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises was 107.33 million square meters, down 10.2% year on year; The land transaction price was 664.7 billion yuan, down 6.2%.

Affected by the policy of "three red lines" and "five file management", the financing of real estate enterprises is also restricted. From January to August this year, real estate development enterprises put in place 13436.4 billion yuan of funds, with the growth rate falling to 14.8% from 51.2% at the beginning of the year.

It is worth noting that since July and August, some real estate enterprises have adopted the way of reducing prices to promote sales and recover funds, but the effect is not ideal. Due to the decline of sales scale in July and August, the growth rate of "deposit and advance payment" and "personal mortgage loan" in the source of funds of real estate enterprises declined.

A person in charge of a listed real estate enterprise in Beijing told the 21st century economic reporter that the regulatory policy has brought restrictions on both supply and demand, which has also led to a general decline in the confidence of real estate enterprises. At the same time, the transmission of market signals also brings a series of chain reactions: poor sales affect payment collection, poor collection affects financing, and insufficient financing affects investment.

Another set of data released by the Bureau of statistics showed that the real estate development boom index in August was 100.85, the lowest since this year.

The above-mentioned people of real estate enterprises also believe that in the recent second round of centralized land supply, the phenomenon of losing auction due to insufficient number of applicants has increased significantly, indicating that the confidence of real estate enterprises is still insufficient.

In this case, as the traditional peak season of "gold nine silver ten", what is the market trend?

Pan Hao believes that due to the continuous pressure on the financing end of enterprises, sales collection will continue to become the lifeline of real estate enterprises. In the face of the traditional "golden nine silver ten" sales nodes, in order to deal with market uncertainty, ensure the achievement of annual sales tasks, stabilize the return of funds and prepare chips for land acquisition at the end of the year, it is a routine operation for real estate enterprises to launch certain promotion measures. Among them, some real estate enterprises with greater cash flow pressure may carry out greater promotion.

The above-mentioned real estate enterprises believe that under the existing policy pressure and market confidence, "gold nine silver ten" will not be too hot. On the contrary, in the year-end sprint performance stage, the real estate enterprises will implement greater promotion activities, and the market is expected to "end up" at the end of the year.

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