Investigation On The Impact Of The 9Th International Textile Federation New Crown Epidemic Situation

　　 The operation of upstream enterprises in western countries is good

The investigators asked about the current business situation of enterprises around the world and across the textile value chain. On average, July 2021 is in pretty good shape (see Figure 1). Compared with the results of the last survey (may 2021), slight changes can still be observed. The number of "good" enterprises decreased from 37% to 31%, while the number of "satisfied" enterprises increased from 40% to 43%. The proportion of "poor" enterprises increased from 23% to 26%. As a result, the difference between "good" and "poor" decreased from + 14 percentage points (PP) to + 5 percentage points. This slight deterioration can be explained by increased uncertainty about the speed and stability of the economic recovery. Although some parts of the world (such as the United States and Europe) have lifted the restrictions on enterprises, the restrictions in other parts of the world (such as India, Bangladesh, Indonesia) are tightening. In addition, many travel restrictions remain, which have a negative impact on travel, hotels and industry activities.

At the regional level, there are significant differences (see Figure 2). Most businesses in Europe (including Turkey) and North America find themselves in a "good" business environment. In July, the difference between "good" and "bad" reached + 41 PP in Europe and + 33 PP in North America. In addition, companies in South Asia, Southeast Asia and South America reported positive differences between "good" and "poor" (respectively + 23pp, + 17pp and + 13pp). In East Asia and Africa, on the other hand, the difference between "good" and "poor" is - 38 PP and - 55 PP, respectively. Observation of different market segments shows that the upstream market segment companies find themselves in a fairly good business environment (see Figure 3). The difference between "good" and "bad" in spinning mills is + 33%, and that in textile machinery enterprises is + 28%. The difference between nonwovens producers is + / - 0, of which 60% are satisfied with their business status. In the downstream market segment, the difference is negative: weaving enterprises / knitting enterprises (- 14pp), dyeing and finishing / printing enterprises (- 20pp), chemical enterprises (- 33pp) and clothing enterprises (- 42pp). In addition, the difference reported by fiber producers was - 43pp.

　　 Market sentiment remained high for six months

In July 2021, the ninth investigation on the impact of the new crown epidemic of the International Textile Federation was conducted. Ask enterprises around the world and along the whole textile value chain: expectations of business conditions in the next six months (up to January 2022). The results show that industry expectations are still quite positive (at a high level) despite a slight decline compared with the eighth survey in May 2021. In July, 51% of companies expected business to be "better" in six months, compared with 57% in May (see Figure 1). The number of companies expecting "not so good" business remained unchanged at 16%. As a result, the difference between good and bad decreased slightly from + 41 percentage points (PP) to + 36 percentage points.

At the regional level, companies in North America (+ 89pp), Africa (+ 64pp) and South America (+ 38pp) are expected to have a "better" business situation by January 2022 (see Figure 2). Companies in South Asia, Europe (including Turkey) and Southeast Asia are also optimistic about the future (+ 23pp, + 21pp and + 17pp, respectively). On average, only in East Asia, the difference between good and bad is negative (- 1pp), but 44% of enterprises still expect the business situation to remain unchanged.

In terms of the different market segments, the current "bad" segments are particularly optimistic about the future (see Figure 3). The difference between good and bad is + 35pp. Similarly, fiber producers, dyeing and finishing / printing, nonwovens producers and apparel producers are also expected to improve their business performance (+ 29pp, + 20pp, + 20pp and + 17pp, respectively). Not surprisingly, segments that are currently doing well, such as textile machinery manufacturers and spinning mills, are less likely to improve the business environment within six months. The difference between good and bad is only + 4pp and - 17pp, respectively. Although 67% of textile and chemical enterprises expect the business situation to remain unchanged, the expectation is not optimistic, and the difference between good and bad is - 33pp.

Participants were also asked about their expectations of turnover (see Figure 4). Globally, on average, companies expect that their turnover will increase by + 15% in 2021 and + 20% in 2024 compared with 2020. Similar results were found in the last survey.

(source: International Federation of textile manufacturers)