The Butterfly Effect Caused By The Epidemic In Malaysia

Malaysia's epidemic has recurred, chip production has stagnated, and China's auto industry has also suffered.

In the near future, Infineon, Italy France semiconductor and other companies have closed their factories in Malaysia. It is estimated that from August to September, the domestic production of 2 million vehicles will be affected.

On the afternoon of August 18, STM China announced that a department of its Muar plant had been reopened on August 18 after isolation on August 16. Nevertheless, China's auto industry on the other side of the ocean is still worried“ Considering the infection of employees and the number of employees in isolation, the recovery of output should not meet China's demand from August to September in the short term, and the gap is still huge. " On August 19, Xu Daquan, executive vice president of Bosch (China) Investment Co., Ltd., told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

The industry calls for attention to the shortage of automotive chips. Some car companies suggested to investigate the impact of the epidemic situation in Malaysia on the automobile industry.

On August 19, Li Shaohua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association and Minister of industry development, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that "we are still in the bottom, and the impact is great, but the scope and depth of the situation is not clear. At present, the association is not able to speak out because it involves the work to be carried out by the government under the influence of foreign epidemic situation. "

A medical worker prepares for the new crown vaccination in Selangor, Malaysia. Xinhua News Agency

Cut off the supply! Cut off the supply!

It has been two or three months since the outbreak in Malaysia returned. On June 1 this year, Malaysia implemented the "closure" because of the serious epidemic situation. A month later, the epidemic situation was not under control. The "comprehensive blockade" measures, which were originally scheduled to end on June 28, were extended again. It was not specified when the extension was to be extended.

During this period, several chip factories in Malaysia were forced to shut down. In the early middle of June, when the local government announced the implementation of the "comprehensive operation control order", Infineon's local factory was temporarily closed for a period of time, but later the factory resumed operation.

Italian semiconductor's Mapo plant has been relatively affected. Recently, some workshops of the plant were ordered by the local government to close from August 16 to August 21. Before that, the factory had been closed for two rounds, roughly three times, totaling nearly a month.

Malaysia is the seventh largest exporter of semiconductor products in the world. At present, more than 50 semiconductor companies have set up factories in Malaysia. In addition to Infineon and Italian French semiconductor, it also includes international semiconductor giants such as Intel, NXP, Texas Instruments and Anson. The local sealing and testing capacity accounts for about 13% of the global sealing and testing capacity.

Italian French semiconductor, which is greatly affected this time, is of great importance to the auto parts industry. For example, Mapo factory produces l9369-tr chip materials for sealing test, and the overall coverage rate of automobile parts with its core in China's main engine plants has reached 7.5%. Many products of Bosch, the downstream Auto parts supplier, will be out of supply by the end of August or even September.

Although STM announced on August 18 that a department of its Mapo plant had been restarted ahead of schedule, it was still difficult to understand the urgent need of China's auto industry, and even if production was resumed this time, insiders were still in deep fear.

"The epidemic situation in Malaysia is still in an unstable stage, and there is still a risk of factory closure at any time in the next few months." Xu Daquan told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

According to the industry, if the chip factories in Malaysia are blocked for a long time, it will directly lead to the price increase of relevant manufacturers, which will lead to the price increase of the whole product line of the leading enterprises of sealing and testing, and the commercial terms of some manufacturers may also be changed, such as increasing the proportion of advance payment, further extending the delivery cycle, etc.

Preliminary industry research results show that Bosch alone is expected to affect the production of nearly 900000 vehicles in China's auto market in August, and the impact of vehicle manufacturing industry alone on GDP will reach 200 billion yuan.

According to an industry source, the suspension of chips caused by the epidemic in Malaysia will affect China's national economy to a trillion level in August and September alone, and such "chip shortage" may last until next spring.

Support domestic vehicle specification chip

The "core shortage" again and again has attracted the attention of China's automobile industry. Automotive chip, as an important component related to the core competitiveness of the industry, has become the next key area in the industry.

In the short term, it is urgent to increase the allocation of existing production capacity, improve the distribution efficiency of circulation links, and optimize the production scheduling plan of existing vehicles; But in the medium and long term, it is an unavoidable task to establish an independent and controllable supply chain for automotive chips. Some data show that the utilization rate of independent chips in domestic cars is only 5%. When the global epidemic comes, it is more obvious that the problem of "neck sticking" is encountered.

"To make up for the fragility of the supply chain, it is necessary to quickly establish the production and sealing and testing capabilities of domestic vehicle chips. After all, most of the automotive chips are chips with the level of 14nm or above." Xu Daquan told reporters of the 21st century economic report that in this regard, Bosch has launched an assessment team to look for potential partners in China.

The chain of chip industry is very long, from design, production, manufacturing to seal test, to final detection and certification, and finally to the automotive industry to become a vehicle specification chip, it needs a lot of development, reliability evaluation, and management and control system. Yuan Chengyin, general manager of the national new energy vehicle technology innovation center and Secretary General of China's automobile chip industry innovation strategic alliance, told the 21st century economic reporter that the whole process may take six to seven years.

The reporter learned that, similar to the situation faced by the industry as a whole, at present, there is a certain amount of accumulation in the design of domestic automobile chips, but it is relatively backward in the production, sealing and testing and other links. At present, only SMIC international has a manufacturing process of 14nm or above, and some manufacturers such as Huahong Hongli have formed mature technologies. However, there is still a big gap between the current shipment scale and the mainstream suppliers.

"From the point of view of the chip industry, it is difficult to make a profit simply by making vehicle scale chips. Government funding may be the only way for enterprises to generate power." Xu Daquan said that breakthroughs in relevant manufacturing equipment, technology and raw materials need support from policies and huge amounts of funds.

This is destined to be a long-term process. However, yuan Chengyin pointed out that the domestic chip industry does not have subsidies at present, nor can it rely on the policy drive to let the industry use the products of domestic enterprises“ Now the chip industry can only rely on a more market-oriented way to develop, create a more open industrial ecology, and slowly grow into competitive enterprises. "

In September last year, with the support of the Department of electronics and equipment of the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of science and technology, yuan Chengyin led the establishment of the innovation strategic alliance of China's automobile chip industry. This organization aims to promote the cross-border integration of integrated circuit and automobile industries. It has absorbed more than 170 units, including domestic mainstream vehicle enterprises, chip design enterprises and research institutes. On the one hand, the alliance promotes the communication between industries, on the other hand, it promotes the establishment of technical route and standard system of automobile chips.

"It will take a long time for China to make chips clear from the beginning to the end. This industry is too long and too big, and requires too much basic technology accumulation. Now we need to make the key and core ones, and the rest can be balanced by forming unique advantages in this system." Yuan Chengyin said.

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