Domestic Cotton Price Rises Sharply, Profit Space Faces Challenge

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The international cotton price rose and fell, and the average price was higher than last week's level

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Last week, the US Federal Reserve was not in a hurry to reduce the size of easing position, so that the U.S. stock market reached a new high. The superposition of rainfall in the U.S. cotton area triggered speculation, which pushed the international cotton price to a high point, which led to profit suppression, and ice hovered at 90 cents / pound. On July 26-30, 2021, the average settlement price of Cotton Futures (ice) main contracts of Intercontinental Exchange was 90.17 cents / pound, up 1.48 cents / pound or 1.7% compared with the previous week; The average price of international cotton index (m), representing the average CIF price of China's main ports, was 101.39 cents / pound, up 1.78 cents / pound or 1.8% compared with the previous week. The import cost of RMB 16168 yuan / ton (calculated by 1% tariff, including port miscellaneous and freight), increased by 276 yuan / ton or 1.7% compared with the previous week. The international cotton price was 1362 yuan / ton lower than that of domestic cotton price, and the internal and external price difference was 223 yuan / ton larger than that of last week.

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Reserve cotton auction continued to be active, transaction price growth continued to expand

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Last week, reserve cotton auction continued to be hot, the increase in transaction price continued to expand. On July 26-30, 2021, the average transaction price of reserve cotton was 17306 yuan / ton, up 521 yuan / ton or 3.10% compared with last week; Among them, the average transaction price of Xinjiang cotton was 17459 yuan / ton, up 538 yuan / ton or 3.18% over last week; The average transaction price of real estate cotton was 16975 yuan / ton, up 472 yuan / ton or 2.86% over last week.

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Domestic cotton yarn prices increased, while international cotton yarn prices rose slightly

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Last week, affected by the sharp rise of Zheng cotton and Zheng yarn, the spot price of domestic cotton yarn began to rise; With the sharp rise of domestic cotton and cotton yarn prices, the competitiveness of Vietnam, India and Pakistan cotton yarn has been significantly enhanced. At present, the price of conventional foreign yarn is lower than that of domestic yarn by 901 yuan / ton, and the volume and price of foreign yarn in port rebounded; After the rise of upstream raw materials, the price of grey cloth increased slightly, and the willingness to accept orders from downstream was not strong; After the price of polyester staple fiber rose, the downstream demand was poor, and the price showed signs of falling, and the average price was still higher than last week.

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Future prospects

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The international cotton price fluctuates high. In the second quarter of this year, the GDP of the United States increased by 6.5%, which was lower than the market expectation. The core PCE price index reached a new high since 1983. The statement of the Federal Reserve that the policy of easing will remain unchanged has brought some troubles to investors' expectations. In terms of international cotton market, the progress of budding and Bolling of new cotton in the United States is lagging behind, and the excellent rate has increased steadily; India's CCI round bottom price rose again, which was conducive to the increase of cotton planting in June to August. With the continuous deterioration of the epidemic situation in Vietnam and the closure of cotton mills, the supply of international cotton yarn was reduced, and a nationwide blockade of Bangladesh's textile and clothing industry began on July 23. According to the report of professional institutions in the field of container monitoring, container demurrage charges and demurrage charges of the world's top 20 ports in 2021 increased by 104% year-on-year. The market is still optimistic about us terminal clothing sales as the peak shopping season for American students is advanced to July. At present, the market is intertwined with each other, and ice's main contract has broken through the 90 cents / pound mark again, which has intensified the confrontation between long and short positions, and the international cotton price is likely to remain at a high level.

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Domestic cotton prices are facing persistent problems. At the meeting of the Political Bureau on July 30, it was proposed that the macro policies of this year and next year should be well coordinated to keep the economic operation in a reasonable range. A prudent monetary policy should maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity to help small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries recover continuously. We will do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of bulk commodities. In terms of domestic cotton market, the cotton growth in Xinjiang is generally good in recent years, and gradually enters the peak flowering period. With the sharp rise in cotton and cotton yarn prices, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts accelerated to decline, down 30000 tons to 539000 tons this week. The downstream is difficult to accept the price, and the order is in a deadlock. The overall differentiation of the market is quite different. The competition in the domestic market is fierce, and the demand for inquiry and lofting of export orders is increasing. However, due to the rapid rise of raw materials, the profit margin and order placement are facing challenges. Short term domestic cotton market is facing persistent problems.

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