Violence! Cotton Yarn Rises More Than 5% And Approaches Limit

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From the early market trend, in less than half an hour, cotton yarn main contract transaction amount exceeded 1 billion, while cotton transaction amount nearly 10 billion, transaction activity can be seen! 　

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Domestic cotton prices continue to rise

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Last week, domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to rise after a brief decline, domestic cotton prices rose more than abroad, and the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices widened.

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Last week, China's cotton price index (CC index 3128b) was 17126 yuan / ton, up 286 yuan month on month; The weekly average price of cotook a index was 98.15 cents / pound, up 0.51 cents month on month. 1% tariff was reduced to 15464 yuan / ton, 1662 yuan lower than that of China cotton price index (CC index 3128b), and the price difference was 207 yuan larger than that of the previous week; The average weekly price of cf109 of Zhengzhou Futures main contract was 16812 yuan / ton, up 138 yuan month on month; The average price of ice cotton futures in the near future was 89.13 cents / pound, down 0.54 cents month on month.

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China's total cotton production decreased by 3.41%

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At the end of June 2021, China Cotton Association conducted a survey on cotton planting. The survey results showed that the cotton planting area in China was 43.4559 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 5.47%. The unit yield was expected to increase slightly on a year-on-year basis, with a total output of about 5.7218 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.41%. The national cotton budding rate was 97.25%, lower than 0.28% in the same period last year. Among them, the cotton area in Xinjiang was 36.8333 million mu, with a year-on-year increase of 0.49%; The predicted yield per unit area decreased by 2.26% year on year; It is estimated that the total output will be 5.185 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.12%, accounting for 90.9% of the country's total output. This year, cotton growth in Xinjiang is relatively lagging behind, and the growth of cotton seedlings is worse than that of last year.

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Overall, the decline in the overall yield of cotton and the rise in spot prices and other fundamentals, driven by the short-term trend of cotton.

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As for the future market, most institutions generally focus on more.

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South China Futures (603093) that yesterday's international cotton price index (SM) 102.63 cents / pound, up 1.21 cents / pound, equivalent to the general trade port pick up price of 16161 yuan / ton; The international cotton price index (m) was 101.46 cents / pound, up 1.20 cents / pound, equivalent to 15979 yuan / ton of general trade port pick-up price. The average price of reserved cotton was 17008 yuan / ton yesterday, up 109 yuan / ton from the previous day. Xiaoshao area has been affected by typhoon recently, and the wind and rain is relatively large, or it has a great impact on spinning mills. The price of cotton yarn is stronger than that of cotton, and the short-term price may still have a change. It is suggested that after the price rise, more orders should be sought for high price reduction, and then withdraw and then take back more orders.

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Meierya (600107) futures pointed out that internationally, USDA predicted in July that the global cotton inventory at the beginning of the new year would be reduced, the output and consumption would be increased, and the final inventory would be decreased, which would benefit the cotton price as a whole. The planting area of American cotton decreased and the growth progress was backward, but the excellent and good rate was better than in previous years. On July 26th, the cotton in ice period was in shock operation and the cross star was lengthened. On the domestic side, the economic recovery continued, and cotton prices were bullish for a long time, but affected by macro-control of bulk commodities and external disturbance, the long-term and short-term were intertwined. In terms of supply and demand, the cotton planting area in China decreased, and the overall growth situation was worse than last year. Reserve cotton deal better, market auction storage enthusiasm is high. Spot, due to price increases, turnover light. The downstream cotton yarn market is high startup, low inventory, and the new orders have improved. In addition, due to the disaster in Henan Province, a short-term "national trend" in the cotton textile industry has been triggered, which has driven the textile sales slightly. 7.26 Zheng cotton main small callback. Cotton price is supported by reserve cotton transaction better and spot price high, and the market is worried about new cotton rush, cotton price is expected to be strong in the short term. In terms of strategy, many companies continue to hold.

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Guodu futures believes that the Sino US negotiations are deadlocked, cotton fell in response to the call, but the end of the small pull up, night trading recovered the decline. Recently, the country's large-scale rainfall continued, cotton production is expected to decline, and heavy rain caused traffic jams, leading to periodic supply and demand contradictions in some regions. However, the rainstorm once again aroused the patriotic sentiment in China, and the upsurge of domestic goods accelerated the terminal warehouse removal. From the sales data of China's textiles and clothing in June, domestic demand and export were both higher than expected, and domestic and foreign demand was expected to maintain a positive trend. At present, the market feedback of the current order situation is OK, and reserve cotton auction reserve price has been rising in recent weeks, market demand has a certain support for the current price. However, cotton prices have shown a greater part of the profit, the future market still needs to pay attention to the market order situation, as well as the possible policy risk, it is suggested to buy more high and reduce holdings, pursue the rise cautiously, and build more on bargain hunting.