Cotton Market Rose In May And Then Fell Back. At The End Of The Month, It Entered The Finishing Period

1、 Price quotation

According to the data, cotton prices in May fluctuated downward, with 15897 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15760 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 0.86%, up 33.38% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic: at the beginning of the month, the news of additional quota issuance was implemented on the evening of April 30. The quota of cotton import sliding standard tax issued this time was 700000 tons, all of which were non-state-owned trade quotas. As soon as the news came out, it was beneficial for textile and clothing foreign trade companies to receive orders, reduce raw material procurement costs, and improve product competitiveness. In the middle of the month, the executive meeting of the State Council called for "effective response to the rapid rise of commodity prices and its associated effects". The exchange implemented measures such as increasing the margin ratio of several futures varieties to ensure the smooth operation of the market. The domestic cotton price fell with the commodity market and remained weak at the end of the month.

In April, China imported 230000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year increase of 92%. In the year of 20 / 21, the total import was 2.17 million tons, an increase of 90% year-on-year. At the end of April, the total turnover inventory of cotton in China was about 3229700 tons, with a decrease of 446300 tons on a month on month basis, which was slightly larger than that of last month, and was lower than 210300 tons in the same period of last year.

International: the inflation data of the United States has risen sharply to a 12-year high. The superposition of the conflict between Palestine and Israel has led to the drop of oil price and the improvement of weather in Texas of the United States. On the 7th, the international cotton price index (SM) was 98.76 cents / pound; On the 28th, the international cotton price index (SM) was 94.84 cents / pound, down 3.92 cents / pound; On the 7th, the international cotton price index (m) was 94.98 cents / pound, while on the 28th, the international cotton price index (m) was 91.47 cents / pound, down 3.51 cents / pound. Icac5's global production and demand forecast is good. In 20 / 21, the global consumption is 25 million tons, the production is expected to be 24.6 million tons, and the final inventory is 22.14 million tons.

Futures: on May 6, the settlement price of zhengmian's main contract 2109 was RMB 15800 / T; on May 31, the settlement price of main contract was RMB 15430 / T, down 370 yuan / T.

3、 Downstream industry chain

Recent cotton futures market decline, market wait-and-see mood increased, cotton yarn enterprises are still in a low inventory state, strong willingness to stand out. With the arrival of the off-season of cotton consumption in summer, the willingness of traders and ginning plants to ship goods increases, and the import cotton yarn increases. The orders of downstream textile enterprises are general, and the atmosphere of gray cloth market is lighter than that in the earlier stage. The orders of cotton spinning factories are short of large orders and stable orders. In the later stage, the orders of textile enterprises are concerned. According to statistics, as of May 28, yarn inventory of spinning enterprises in major regions of the country was 10.2 days, 0.6 days lower than last week, and 5.6% month on month decrease. Data show that China's cotton textile boom index in April was 49.20, which was lower than that in March. The raw material inventory index in April was 48.67, 1.52 lower than that in March.

With the recovery of the epidemic situation and orders, it can support the cotton to get out of the shock rising market. In the short term, the cotton price is not reflected in the cotton futures market due to the lack of favorable support. In the long run, orders from Europe, the United States and Japan in the second and third quarters are likely to overflow again, and cotton may form a good one.