Sword Of Damocles Hanging High: Low Speed Electric Vehicle Turning Normal Or Dying?

"The price of this car is not high, you don't have to pay insurance, you don't need to find a parking space, and the most important thing is that you don't have to take a driver's license test." In a county in Henan Province, 72 year old Uncle Wang walked out of his house with a long patch board to charge his 14000 yuan old man's bicycle.

"This car is comfortable to drive, not fast, pick up children, go out to buy vegetables, winter is not cold, summer is not hot, especially convenient." At the gate of a primary school in Henan Province, Ms. Tian, 34, chatted with other parents while waiting for her children to leave school. As far as you can see, there are at least ten low-speed electric vehicles parked in the crowded school gate.

The low-speed electric vehicle, commonly known as "laolaole", is sold for 10000-30000 yuan. It looks like a car. Although it is not as fast as a car and its driving range is high, it does not need a license plate and its price has advantages. In recent years, it has become a popular model in low-end cities, towns and rural markets.

But recently, the old man's music seems to be no longer happy.

A few days ago, a meeting minutes of a seminar on Revising the technical conditions and standards of pure electric passenger cars was exposed. The meeting was attended by China Automotive Technology Research Center (hereinafter referred to as CAAC), automobile industry association and several national ministries and commissions. The standards discussed at the meeting are planned to be released in September this year. On April 12, some people close to China automobile research group confirmed the authenticity of the meeting to the 21st century economic report reporter, and disclosed that the revised standard has entered the stage of soliciting opinions.

According to the minutes of the meeting, relevant laws and regulations on low-speed electric vehicles were discussed. For low-speed electric vehicles, no separate standards were issued. The definition of micro low-speed pure electric passenger vehicles was added. Rigid requirements were made on the outline size, range, maximum speed, battery type and vehicle performance of low-speed electric vehicles. For example, low-speed vehicles can only use lithium iron phosphate or three-phase Yuan lithium battery, does not enjoy state subsidies, not included in the point management.

It is worth considering that the new standard will be issued soon, and the "old man's music" who are wandering at the crossroads must make a choice: to usher in the reform, or to shuffle out and die out? Is it a blessing or a curse for regulators, enterprises and users to bring low-speed electric vehicles into the category of "regular army"? Where will the industry develop in the future?

If this standard is formally implemented, it means that after five months, the once savage growth of low-speed electric vehicles will be brought into the formal management. "From the perspective of product standards, this revised standard is beneficial to standardizing the development of the industry." On April 10, the management of a low-speed electric vehicle manufacturer told the 21st century economic reporter, "but from the perspective of the whole industry, it is not necessarily good."

Hundreds of billions of industries once grew savagely

Throughout the development of China's low-speed electric vehicle industry, its development curve is roughly the same as that of new energy vehicle industry. Since 2009, with Hebei, Henan and Shandong as the center, land ark, Yujie, reading, Lichi and other low-speed electric vehicle enterprises have been established and developed rapidly. From 2013 to 2018, the sales volume of low-speed electric vehicles in China increased rapidly, and the sales volume of domestic low-speed electric vehicles in 2019 was about 1.2 million. The prospective industry research institute predicts that by 2020, the number of low-speed electric vehicles in China will reach more than 10 million. In the future, with the steady growth of sales, the market of low-speed electric vehicles of 100 billion or even trillions will further burst out.

However, there are many hidden dangers behind the prosperity. Generally, the speed of low-speed electric vehicles does not exceed 60 km / h, which is not in the scope of traditional automobile management. The supervision from production to market access is relatively weak, resulting in the wild growth of low-speed electric vehicles for many years, and the development is controversial. On the one hand, there is an objective demand for low-speed electric vehicles, especially in the fourth and fifth tier cities, cities and rural areas, which has huge market potential and rigid travel demand.

Strong demand can not hide the painful cost. On the other hand, low-speed vehicles have low access threshold, uneven quality and technical level, fierce price competition, no clear policies and regulations in road right, insurance and license plate, weak supervision and random parking, which lead to frequent safety accidents and huge hidden dangers. According to a statistical data released by the Ministry of industry and information technology in 2017, there were 830000 low-speed electric vehicle traffic accidents in five years, resulting in 18000 deaths and 186000 injuries. The safety problem has become an obstacle to the development of low-speed electric vehicles.

In fact, there has been a long discussion on the industry standards and management of low-speed electric vehicles. As early as 2016, the national standard of "technical conditions for four wheel low speed electric passenger vehicles" was open for public opinions, but so far this technical standard has not been issued. In November 2018, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other six ministries and commissions jointly issued the notice on strengthening the management of low-speed electric vehicles, clarifying the management idea of "upgrading a batch, standardizing a batch, and eliminating a batch" of low-speed electric vehicles, carrying out the cleaning up and rectification of low-speed electric vehicle production and sales enterprises, and forbidding local parties to increase the production capacity of low-speed electric vehicles.

A notice announced the end of the golden age of low-speed electric vehicle blindfolded, a number of low-speed electric vehicle enterprises began to save themselves, through acquisition of production qualification or cooperation with traditional automobile enterprises to seek "employment". In May 2017, the construction project of land ark with an annual output of 50000 pure electric passenger vehicles was approved by the national development and Reform Commission; in 2017, Hebei Yujie introduced great wall motor as a shareholder, and changed its name to Lingtu in order to cut the corporate image of low-speed electric vehicles; reading automobile acquired Shaanxi QINXING in April 2018, obtained the production qualification of new energy commercial vehicles and special vehicles, and in January 2019, it purchased YEMA motor In December 2019, Shandong Baoya new energy acquired 70.5% equity of FAW Jilin with 1.5 billion yuan, obtaining the production qualification of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles.

However, obtaining qualification and seeking to become a regular is only the first step for low-speed electric vehicle enterprises to transform into new energy vehicle track. It is worth noting that some low-speed electric vehicle enterprises in self-help transformation have failed to enter the mainstream market, and some even failed. Yujie (later renamed as "Lingtu") which was once a champion in the low-speed electric vehicle industry, is now in the stage of bankruptcy and reorganization, and its transformation and upgrading dream is shattered. Several other low-speed car head enterprises have not given up the production of low-speed vehicles after "becoming regular".

"The situation may be different after the promulgation of the standards. At present, it is only to expose the product standards. It is not very clear whether to produce low-speed vehicles in the future." The person in charge of the above-mentioned low-speed electric vehicle enterprises said.

Promote the development of the industry towards compliance and legality

The weak policy supervision, the travel demand in urban and rural areas and the confusion of manufacturers have led to the blind running of low-speed electric vehicles for more than ten years. It is urgent to issue standards to regulate its development.

According to the minutes of the online conference, there is no separate standard for low-speed electric vehicles. In this revision of GB / t28382 standard, micro low-speed electric vehicles are included in the definition of pure electric passenger vehicles. This means that the industry will realize unified standardized management and force industrial upgrading from the production end. Production enterprises need to have certain R & D and production capacity. Vehicles must be licensed and drivers must also hold driving licenses. This will effectively control the chaos of the low-speed electric vehicle industry to a large extent, which is conducive to reducing safety risks and improving urban traffic management. At the same time, the new revised standard stipulates that the energy density of the battery shall not be less than 70wh / kg, and lead-acid battery shall not be accepted, and only lithium iron phosphate or lithium ternary battery shall be used, and the price of the latter is higher than that of lead-acid battery.

More importantly, the technical requirements for low-speed electric vehicles have been comprehensively upgraded in the revised standard, and rigid requirements have been made for the safety after collision, vehicle curb weight, braking performance, stability, motor performance, starting acceleration performance, climbing performance and even tire pressure test. For example, the front impact test speed of micro low-speed pure electric passenger car is required to be 40km / h, and the requirements of side impact and rear impact are consistent with the requirements of traditional vehicles. This is not a small challenge for low-speed vehicle enterprises pursuing low-cost and high-profit, because to meet the above requirements, vehicle enterprises must carry out a lot of tests and spend a lot of time and money.

There is no doubt that if the revised standard is successfully implemented in September, its rigid restrictions will increase the production costs of low-speed vehicle manufacturers, directly lead to the price rise in the terminal market, and the original price advantage will no longer exist. A large number of substandard and non-conforming low-speed electric vehicles will be eliminated and shuffled, thus promoting the development of low-speed electric vehicle industry towards the direction of legal compliance.

"After the low-speed electric vehicle becomes a regular, it is necessary to do some technical upgrading according to the national standards. For example, the battery will change from lead-acid battery to environmentally friendly lithium-ion battery, and the cost will be increased accordingly." On April 9, Zhang Xiang, an automobile industry analyst, said in an interview with the 21st century economic report, "this will directly eliminate a number of low-speed electric vehicle manufacturers, which depends on the cost control of enterprises. If the scale of the enterprise is large and there are economies of scale, the cost will be diluted; if the scale is small, the vehicle cost is high and the technology and quality level are poor, such enterprises will be directly eliminated due to lack of competitiveness. "

According to the minutes of the meeting, CAAC research thinks that it is of great significance to start the revision of the standard: first, to provide a good guarantee for the standard work of four-wheel low-speed electric vehicle; second, it provides a basis for the local government to standardize management; third, it points out the direction for enterprises to develop standardized and compliant products.

In addition, it is worth considering that "for low-speed vehicles, the state wants to regulate, not encourage, low-speed vehicles can not get subsidies and double points". According to the double points policy, a pure electric passenger car can get 1 point if the driving range is between 100 km and 150 km.

Li Jinyong, executive chairman of the Auto Dealers Association of the all China Federation of industry and commerce, has publicly stated that "by the end of 2020, the positive trading price of new energy vehicles between enterprises has reached 3000 yuan per point. In 2019, the highest price is more than 800 yuan. If it is low, there will be 200 or 300 transactions." Thanks to the $1.58 billion operating revenue from the sale of carbon credits, Tesla achieved a full year profit for the first time in 2020 after years of losses. Over the past five years, the sale of carbon credits has brought Tesla $3.3 billion in revenue.

It should be noted that whether the revised standard is too harsh for low-speed vehicles remains to be discussed. Yang Yusheng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, has publicly said that what kind of batteries should be used in low-speed electric vehicles should be decided by the market, and lead-acid batteries should not be excluded "in a one size fits all" way.

A person in charge of a low-speed electric vehicle enterprise told reporters that if the standard is set too high, the cost advantage of low-speed vehicles will be greatly reduced. Many large-scale and compliant enterprises may lose the market because of the increased cost, while the non-conforming products produced by small-scale enterprises may be sold to rural areas or sinking markets, or even places with inadequate supervision There will be a phenomenon that bad money will be driven out of good money.

According to the data, in November 2020, the sales volume of low-speed electric vehicles on Taobao reached 71.82 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 60%; the number of brands also increased by nearly 100 to 284. The 21st century economic reporter searched Taobao with the key words of "electric four-wheel vehicle" and "old-age Scooter", and found a number of products with prices as low as several thousand yuan and as high as 30000 yuan, among which many products were marked with the words "new energy electric vehicles". Looking at the product reviews, there are many favorable comments on "the necessary artifact for the transportation of children", "shelter from the wind and rain", "easy to drive, easy to learn", etc.; however, there are continuous queries about the quality of the vehicle, "the workmanship quality of the whole vehicle is very rough", "the battery does not know what is the wrong brand", "the sound of the engine is too loud" and "the turning radius is too large". Also, I would like to ask the buyer, "does this car need a driver's license?" Most of the replies are unnecessary, and a few sellers reply that they "look at local policies".

When chatting with the customer service, when the reporter asked "it takes several days to deliver goods to Beijing", the customer service said that "at present, the delivery time in Beijing can not be delivered, and the specific delivery time is not clear"; the customer service of another store said that "it can only be delivered to the surrounding areas of Beijing, and the buyer needs to pick it up". It explained that "as long as the truck pulling this kind of car is not able to enter Beijing", at the same time Customer service promised to tell "there are a lot of our customers in Beijing. They didn't say they would not move out of the way." they also warmly introduced the details of the vehicles and preferential policies to the reporters.

21st century economic reporter noted that some cities have begun to strengthen the supervision of low-speed vehicles. At the end of December last year, Beijing launched a centralized rectification campaign against illegal electric tricycles and four wheeled vehicles. At the end of March this year, the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau and relevant departments destroyed 1569 illegal electric tricycles seized according to law. The recently issued "Beijing comprehensive traffic management action plan for 2021" further clarifies that Beijing will launch the special rectification of three or four wheel low-speed electric vehicles this year, and will punish the excessive two-wheel electric vehicles and unlicensed electric vehicles that are still on the road after the transition period.

There are still problems to be solved

In fact, after the development in recent years, the low-speed electric vehicle market has already begun to survive the fittest, among which Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, the "national God car", must have a place. It is worth mentioning that "for the side impact test, refer to Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, if the R point is more than 700mm, side impact is not required".

The starting price of Wuling Hongguang Mini ev28800 yuan has completely entered the price hinterland of low-speed electric vehicles, even lower than the latter. In addition, different from low-speed vehicles, Wuling Hongguang Mini EV adopts the passenger car manufacturing standard, requiring the driver to hold a driver's license, and vehicle registration and insurance are essential. Since its launch in July last year, Wuling Hongguang Mini EV has sold nearly 120000 units in 2020, becoming the first sales volume of Chinese brand electric vehicles.

In addition to Wuling Hongguang Mini EV seizing part of the market share of low-speed electric vehicles, many automobile enterprises have launched micro electric vehicles, such as great wall Euler R1, SAIC Roewe kelevi, Chang'an Benben e-star, etc., which have reduced the dimension of low-speed electric vehicles.

According to the data, the activity of new energy vehicles going to the countryside last year lasted for four months, with sales of more than 180000 vehicles, of which grade A and A00 pure electric vehicles became the main models of going to the countryside. In 2021, a new round of new energy vehicles going to the countryside has begun. According to the information on the official website of the Ministry of industry and information technology, a total of 18 enterprises, including BYD, SAIC general Wuling, Great Wall Motor, Jianghuai Automobile, Chery Automobile, Geely and Beijing new energy, participated in the activities. Most of the vehicles going to the countryside are small vehicles and micro vehicles. Compared with the low-speed electric vehicle, the traditional car manufacturers have more advantages in quality, technology, appearance design and intelligence, and the price has also dropped to 30000-50000 yuan. There is no doubt that the two will continue to compete for market share.

"At present, China's car ownership is very low, with less than 200 cars per thousand people. In the past, low-speed electric vehicles were mostly sold in the local area. After meeting the national standards, they can be sold all over the country, and the market is gradually expanding. " Zhang Xiang believes that "after full competition, the concentration of the industry will be increased, and the benign development will be realized. In the future, there may be giants specializing in low-speed electric vehicles."

It is worth considering that even if the new revised standard is issued in September, if the problem of supply and demand can not be fundamentally solved, low-speed electric vehicles will continue to exist. First of all, even if the city strengthens the supervision and strictly checks the non-conforming low-speed vehicles, the rigid demand for travel will still provide the soil for the survival of low-speed electric vehicles in the cities and rural areas where the supervision is not strict.

Secondly, the cost of replacing lead-acid battery with lithium battery will increase. The increase of terminal price is more sensitive to rural consumers. They may choose electric tricycles with lower price and no driver's license. In the future, electric tricycles may play the role of low-speed electric vehicles.

A person in charge of a low-speed vehicle enterprise said that four or five years ago, the product manufacturing of the low-speed vehicle industry was gradually closer to the automobile production standard. However, in recent years, with the increasingly strict supervision, the proportion of electric tricycle refitted products is increasing, which to some extent leads to the industry not upgrading but downgrading.

If the standard is officially issued five months later, does it mean the end of the low-speed electric vehicle industry? "At present, the relevant regulations such as access standards, license plates and driving licenses of low-speed vehicle enterprises have not been clearly promulgated, so it is difficult to predict how the market will develop in the future," said the person in charge

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