Zheng Cotton Rebound Height Depends On What Factors?

Over the past week, Zhengzhou cotton cf2105 contract continued to consolidate at 14500-15000 yuan / ton, with an intraday low of 14285 yuan / ton in late March, but it did not effectively break through the 14500 yuan / ton barrier. Some cotton trading enterprises and cotton ginning plants' cotton basis quotation has been transferred to cf2109 contract. For a short time, it is in the horizontal adjustment state of "the top has the top, and the bottom has the bottom". The cotton period now needs the direction guidance from the peripheral market, policy, basic and technical aspects.

At present, both sides of Zhengzhou cotton market are more cautious, cotton mills, weaving, fabric and clothing enterprises and other aspects of raw material replenishment are showing a temporary trend. In April, most areas to the south of the Yangtze River gradually entered the rainy season, covered with smog. Is it true that Zheng Mian is "as rainy as spring is, the flowers are easy to be damaged and empty.". Don't know spring attitude, especially in the rain and shade?

The author thinks that the bottom of 14500 yuan / ton seems to have been established from the perspective of disk, and it is the general trend to oscillate upward. However, like the weather in spring, "windy and rainy", it is inevitable to encounter round after round of "late spring cold", and bears will repeatedly block attacks at the 15500 yuan / T level. The following factors play a key role in the development of Zhengzhou cotton

First, the new epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is coming back, which has a great impact on the global economy, trade, transportation and communication. After the serious rebound of the epidemic situation, Bulgaria and Poland first declared that they had entered into a state of blockade nationwide. France, Italy and Germany are also the areas where the epidemic is spreading more seriously. In addition, with the tension between China and the EU, some textile and garment foreign trade companies and processing enterprises have reported that the phenomenon of delayed delivery of export orders and breach of contract has gradually increased. Therefore, although the new coronal vaccine is widely inoculated and the global temperature is gradually rising, it is difficult to predict whether human beings can achieve complete victory in 2021;

Second, the textile and clothing orders "overdraft" caused by the soaring energy, chemical and cotton raw materials in February needs time to repair. According to the survey, the order receiving situation of textile and clothing enterprises in March was significantly lower than that in January, while the export orders from April to June were lower than expected. The cotton and cotton yarn increased too much, which seriously overdrawn the bearing and digestion capacity of cloth factories, fabrics and clothing factories;

Third, the domestic cotton planting area in 2021 and the weather in the main cotton producing areas in April have become the focus of attention of funds and cotton related enterprises. In late March, the three major cotton planting areas in southern Xinjiang have taken the lead in sowing. It is expected that sowing will begin in the first ten days of April in Northern Xinjiang. Later in the mainland, the weather will become the focus of speculation under the general trend of stable and slightly increasing cotton planting area in Xinjiang;

The liquidity in April and April may be "easy to tighten but difficult to loosen". According to wind statistics, in March, the central bank put in 330 billion yuan of capital, while 260 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of MFL were due to maturity, a total of 360 billion yuan of funds were withdrawn, so the net withdrawal of funds in March was 30 billion yuan. In view of the positive economic situation, high pressure of imported inflation, peak tax payment and large supply of government bonds, liquidity is expected to tighten slightly in April.