Analysis: Prosperity Report Of China'S Cotton Textile Industry In December 2020

2020 is an extraordinary year. Under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee, great achievements have been made in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development in China. China's economic operation has continued to recover steadily, taking the lead in achieving positive growth among the world's major economies, and the total economic volume has reached a new level of one billion yuan. From the industry point of view, affected by the epidemic situation in the first four months, the production and operation of China's cotton textile industry is facing severe challenges, and the industry is in a state of recession. Since May, with the continuous improvement of domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the consumer market has recovered steadily, and the industry prosperity has gradually rebounded. Especially after September, the production and sales of the industry improved significantly, and the prosperity index was continuously higher than the dry prosperity line.

In December, the prosperity index of China's cotton textile industry was 53.43. Overall, since April, the cotton textile boom index has gradually shown an upward trend. From the sub index point of view, the sub index values in December are higher than the Kuo Rong line. According to the survey of China Cotton Textile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "China Cotton Association"), the raw material price rose in December, and the enterprise replenishment increased at the end of the year, and the purchase of raw materials increased compared with that in November. In terms of production, sales and inventory, the orders of spinning mills were basically sufficient, the workshop was full of production, and the product inventory was low or no inventory. Compared with the spinning mill, the order of weaving mill is slightly insufficient. Because it takes a certain time for the upstream price rise to transmit to the grey end, the profit space of weaving mill is small.

In terms of import and export, China's textile and clothing exports in December reached 26.2 billion US dollars, up 6.2% month on month. Among them, textile exports were 12.29 billion US dollars, up 2.4% month on month, and clothing exports were 13.91 billion US dollars, up 10.4% month on month. In 2020, China's textile and clothing exports reached 291.22 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Among them, textile export was 153.84 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.2% year-on-year, and clothing export was $13.78 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. It can be seen that although the industry will face the severe and complex international situation and the severe impact of the new epidemic situation in 2020, China's textile and clothing import and export is obviously better than expected, fully reflecting the strong toughness and comprehensive competitiveness of China's textile and clothing foreign trade.

Raw material purchasing index

The raw material purchasing index in December was 55.06. From the price point of view, the overall cotook a index showed an upward trend in December; in China, as the economic recovery continued to consolidate, market confidence was boosted, and domestic cotton prices rose steadily; in terms of chemical fiber staple fiber, the price of viscose staple fiber decreased slightly in the first ten days, and began to make efforts in the middle of the middle ten days, while the price of polyester staple fiber showed an upward trend in the first ten days, and remained stable in the last ten days. From the purchasing situation of cotton spinning enterprises, the purchasing volume of raw materials increased greatly in December, and the increase range of cotton procurement was higher than that of chemical fiber staple fiber, which was also related to the basic performance of raw materials.

For specific price data, the average cotook a index in December was 81.02 cents / pound, up 3.3 cents / pound on a month on month basis. The average price of domestic 3128 grade cotton was 14889 yuan / ton, up 157 yuan / ton month on month; the average price of mainstream viscose fiber was 10668 yuan / ton, up 77 yuan / ton month on month; the average price of 1.4d direct spinning polyester staple fiber was 5728 yuan / ton, up 141 yuan / ton month on month.

Stock index of raw materials

The stock index of raw materials in December was 52.40, the highest since February. The price of raw materials rose in the month, and cotton textile enterprises had sufficient orders. Under the optimistic expectation of the future market trend, cotton textile enterprises' raw material procurement increased and raw material inventory increased. In terms of varieties, the rise rate of cotton inventory is higher than that of non cotton fiber inventory. According to the data of enterprises coordinated by China Cotton bank, in December, the proportion of enterprises with cotton inventory increasing on a month on month basis was 54.28%, and that of enterprises with a decline on a month on month basis was 27.86%; the proportion of enterprises with a month on month increase in inventory of non cotton fiber was 48.89%, and that of enterprises with a decline was 27.29%.

Production index

December production index was 52.08. In the current month, most of the enterprises' equipment started to maintain the full load state in the early stage, and some enterprises with insufficient orders and low opening rate in the previous month increased. According to the survey of China Cotton Industry Association, the orders of spinning factories were sufficient in the month, and most of the orders of enterprises were arranged before the Spring Festival, even oversold; the orders of weaving factories were basically about 30-40 days. In order to meet the demand of downstream customers' orders, cotton textile enterprises produce "fast". According to the data of enterprises coordinated by China Cotton bank, the proportion of enterprises with yarn output increasing month on month in December was 50.24%, and that of cloth output rose by 47.53%.

Product sales index

The product sales index in December was 54.79. In the same month, the price of raw materials in the upstream increased, and the price of gauze in the downstream rose. In order to ensure the normal production after the Spring Festival, the enterprise increased the stock, and the market sales atmosphere was good. In terms of price, yarn price increase is higher than that of grey cloth. Specifically, the average price of 32 cotton combed yarn was 22109 yuan / ton, up 4.32% on a month on month basis, and the average price of pure cotton grey cloth (32 * 32130 * 702 / 147 "twill) was 5.09 yuan / ton, up 0.59% month on month. In terms of orders, pure cotton yarn orders were stable and could be arranged before the Spring Festival. Non cotton yarn orders increased, and some enterprises ordered to February; The regular grey fabric order is about one month, the color woven fabric order is basically sustainable for one month, and the denim order is about 40 days. Affected by the epidemic situation, the foreign trade orders decreased compared with the same period of last year, with a higher drop rate.

Product inventory index

The product inventory index in December was 54.02. In the same month, the market went smoothly, and the inventory of cotton textile enterprises decreased. According to the survey of China Cotton Industry Association, the yarn inventory of spinning mills is low, most enterprises have inventory of less than 15 days or no stock, the stock of grey cloth in weaving mills is mostly about 15-40 days, and some weaving mills have no stock. On the whole, yarn inventory decline is higher than that of grey cloth. According to the data of enterprises coordinated by China Cotton bank, 62.76% of yarn inventory decreased month on month in December, and 53.55% of cloth warehouse stock decreased month on month.

Business operation index

In December, the enterprise operation index was 53.65, reaching the highest value in 2020. Compared with the previous period, the price of gauze increased in the same month, especially the price of yarn increased a lot, and the profit of spinning factory improved. Due to the upstream price rise is not effectively transmitted to the downstream, so the profit space of the weaving mill is squeezed, and the enterprise basically maintains the production with low profit. According to the data of enterprises coordinated by China Cotton bank, in December, 69.45% of the main business income increased, and 18.87% of the enterprises decreased month on month; 54.15% of the total profits increased and 31.70% of the total profits decreased.

Enterprise confidence index

In December, the enterprise confidence index was 53.65, reaching the highest value in 2020. In the same month, the deterioration of the new crown epidemic in Britain slowed down the recovery of the global economy. The rising risk aversion in the market led to capital flight. Enterprises said that cotton prices might fall down, but there was little room for decline. With the gradual vaccination of vaccines and the orderly recovery of domestic consumer demand, the increment of downstream replenishment is gradually released. In the short term, the market is in a good situation, and most enterprises are optimistic and cautious about the future market. Some enterprises believe that the epidemic situation at home and abroad is getting tighter and uncertain factors are increasing, and they are holding a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. According to the enterprise data coordinated by the China Cotton bank, 45.92% of the enterprises thought that the future market was optimistic and good, and 7.05% believed that the weak and downward enterprises in the future market.

Note: the prosperity index of China's cotton textile industry is collected from nearly 500 secondary cotton textile enterprises in China. Referring to the establishment methods of national manufacturing PMI and other indexes, it is concluded that when the index is higher than 50, it means that the prosperity degree of cotton textile industry in this month is better than that of last month; if it is lower than 50, it means that the prosperity degree of this month is lower than that of last month.