Lack Of Favorable Supply And Demand, PTA Has The Risk Of Falling

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market fell first and then rose, showing a slight decline as a whole. As of December 25, the average spot price in the domestic market was 3630 yuan / ton, down 0.68% compared with the beginning of the week and 25.87% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

In terms of supply, only 1.1 million tons of bp1.1 million tons were started in Zhuhai in December, and maintenance was started to the end of the month. Due to the limited maintenance efforts, the domestic PTA plant operating rate continued to maintain about 90% in the first half of December, so PTA supply continued to be at a high level. As fuhaichuang 4.5 million tons PTA plant began to be overhauled for about 25 days on December 23, the operating rate of PTA industry dropped to around 85% by December 24. According to statistics, the current domestic PTA production is 2447100 tons, an increase of 321000 tons compared with the same period in 2019, with an increase of 15.1%. In terms of inventory, downstream polyester started to work, but it was difficult to further improve due to the "double 11" and the end of Christmas orders, which led to the large accumulation of domestic PTA inventory again, and the social inventory exceeded the 4 million tons mark. As of December 18, the domestic PTA social inventory was 4.334 million tons, a significant increase of 3.056 million tons compared with the same period in 2019.

Raw material market, international crude oil has been developing since the beginning of November. Due to the uncertainty of public health events this week, the market worried about the slowdown of demand recovery, which led to the fall of crude oil and the weakening of PTA cost support. However, the decline in oil prices was restrained by the decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories and the prospect of brexit agreement. As of December 24, WTI closing price of international crude oil was 48.23 USD / barrel, and Brent closing price was 51.29 USD / barrel.

Affected by the weakening cost, the domestic polyester filament Market in the downstream of this week slowed down. As of December 25, the average low elastic price of polyester DTY (150D / 48F) was 7615 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.60%; the average price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) was 5971 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.24%; polyester POY was flat with the beginning of the week. At present, the market performance of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is fair, the average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 100% - 120%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 150%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is now concentrated in 17-33 days, including POY inventory of 4-12 days, FDY inventory of 12-30 days, and DTY inventory of about 19-33 days. The number of orders in the weaving market has decreased and the aftereffect is insufficient. The turnover of fabrics in winter decreases month on month. The orders for fabrics in spring are relatively limited. The operating rate of weaving enterprises is partially insufficient, which has dropped to around 76%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the 1.1 million tons of BP plant in Zhuhai plans to restart next week, increasing pressure on its own supply side. At the same time, demand terminal textile off-season characteristics gradually highlighted, PTA supply and demand side lack of good, but crude oil shocks near the 10 month high point, cost support still exists. PTA market is expected to weaken in the short term, but the decline will not be too big.