The Spot Rise Of Steam Coal Continues. It'S Difficult To Find A Coal Mine In The Mining Area. The Price Will Not Be Quoted For The Time Being Subject To The Arrival Of Vehicles

Although the steam coal futures index has dropped by 100 yuan / ton compared with the high point, there is still a situation that "one coal is hard to find" in both mining areas and ports.

"There is generally no inventory accumulation in the mining area, and the price changes are very frequent." A person engaged in coal trade in Inner Mongolia told reporters, "the open-pit mining area has more choices than the well mine cost performance and the variety of coal, so now it's the same volume of cars. The factory will also distribute instant noodles to waiting vehicles."

He said that because the supply of coal is very uncertain, the changes in freight rates are also fluctuating, "because the arrangement of shippers will never catch up with the price changes in the mining area, and it has become a normal practice that the price will not be quoted for the time being, subject to the arrival of vehicles." He told reporters.

Last week, because the price of steam coal futures rose one after another, approaching the 800 yuan mark, it has attracted the attention of the market and regulatory layer. The national development and Reform Commission held a forum on electric power enterprises on December 12 and issued several measures to strictly control coal prices. As a result, the steam coal futures index fell after the opening of this week.

"In the future, because the supply situation is not optimistic, the steam coal spot market will still maintain a period of strong operation." An industry analyst told reporters, "the current power plant inventory is generally low, can only see whether the weather can no longer continue to become cold."

Frequent policies drive down futures prices

According to market news, at the above meeting, the NDRC issued the following four requirements: it has interviewed the Zhengzhou Institute of Commerce and asked to take measures to suppress the fluctuation of futures; it requires that the coal purchase price of power enterprises should not exceed 640 yuan / ton, if it does, it needs to report to the NDRC separately, and the NDRC will conduct investigation on coal sources; at present, the inventory of key power plants is about 86 million tons, requiring the internal power plant phase of each group To adjust coal inventory mutually, reduce the purchase of high price coal in the market, and further requirements for imported coal.

Before that, on December 9, the Zheng Shang Exchange issued a risk warning letter: in the near future, the price of steam coal futures fluctuated greatly, and there were many uncertain factors in the market. All member units were requested to strengthen investor education and risk prevention, and remind investors to operate cautiously and invest rationally.

At the same time, since the settlement on December 14, 2020, the trading margin standard of steam coal futures contract is adjusted to 6%, and the limit range of rise and fall is adjusted to 5%; the transaction fee standard of 2101 contract, 2102 contract and 2103 contract traded on the same day is adjusted to 10 yuan / hand, and the service charge standard of intra day leveling trading is adjusted to 10 yuan / hand.

Under the cooling of these policies, the main contract of steam coal futures dropped from 744.6 yuan / ton at the closing of December 11 to 670.8 yuan / ton at the closing of December 16, and closed down for three consecutive trading days on December 11, 14 and 15, but the local price rose again on the 16th.

Since the beginning of this year, the importance of coal mine safety has been raised again, the overall safety inspection has been strengthened, and the production at the end of the year can ensure safety. Therefore, the increase of coal supply is very limited. "On the downstream side, it is not only the shortage of low sulfur and high-quality coal at present, but also the market as a whole is in a state of shortage of coal, and the quotation is relatively chaotic. Basically, there is a price but no goods, and there are few coal transactions in the market." The traders said.

In terms of spot price, according to the price on December 10 of the latest phase, the q5500 steam coal produced in Qinhuangdao port in Shanxi Province was 663 yuan / ton, increased by 9 yuan / ton compared with the previous day; q5000 movable coal was 606 yuan / ton, increased by 5 yuan / ton compared with the previous day; q4500 moving coal was 539 yuan / ton, increased by 5 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, still maintaining the rising trend.

"At present, the main factor to maintain the price of steam coal is actually the supply and demand fundamentals." The above analyst told reporters, "in the past, the port often acted as a reservoir, but from now on, the enterprises waiting for coal production are just in need. Many of the coal produced are sold in the pit mouth, and will not be transported to the port. In addition, the weather is still cooling, and the supply will not keep up for a while and a half. This kind of supply and demand fundamentals are not very good in the short term It may get better. "

Fundamentals are hard to ease

On December 15, according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the recovery of China's economy is improving, and the growth rate of several indicators has increased month on month, and the impact of winter weather is superimposed, and the demand for coal exceeds that of previous years.

In November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.0% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point faster than that in October, and 1.03% month on month. From January to November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 2.3% year on year, 0.5 percentage points faster than that from January to October.

The manufacturing industry grew by 7.7% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than last month. Among them, the high-tech manufacturing industry grew by 10.8% year-on-year, 4.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 5.4%, 1.4 percentage points faster than that of the previous month.

The data of industrial added value in November showed that industrial production continued to improve beyond expectations. With the phased achievements of domestic epidemic prevention and control work and the improvement of domestic employment situation, the industrial added value maintained a stable and rapid growth, the rising areas of major industries and industrial products expanded, most products and industries continued to grow, and domestic industrial production continued to repair.

However, with the rapid economic recovery, energy production itself has a certain lag and periodicity, so the supply can not keep up with the demand in a short period of time.

In November, the added value of the mining industry increased by 2.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.5% lower than that of the previous month; in terms of the main products of the mining industry, the output of raw coal increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.1% compared with the previous month; the growth rate of natural gas increased by 11.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate was narrowed by 0.1% compared with the previous month.

As China relies heavily on coal for power generation and winter heating, the demand for coal has risen sharply, which is also the main reason for the rapid rise in coal prices after November.

According to wind data, the inventory data of national key power plants has been declining for a consecutive month. On December 16, Zhejiang electric power company had inventory of 4.03 million tons, daily consumption of 124000 tons, and available days of 32.5 days; on November 29, the inventory of national key power plants was 94.57 million tons, with daily coal consumption of 4.3 million tons and available days of 22 days.

"In the current winter, the national cooling is obvious, which leads to the increase of power coal demand, resulting in the high level of power plant inventory, and the seasonal recovery of daily consumption, which accelerates the pace of market replenishment. Moreover, the non power industry is still in the peak production period, and the marginal support of terminal demand is good. Therefore, under the overall tight domestic and foreign supply and demand pattern, domestic coal prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall." The analysts said.

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