China'S Foreign Trade Imports And Exports Have Been Growing For Five Consecutive Months. Experts Predict That The Annual Growth Rate Is Expected To Reach 2%

On November 7, data released on the official website of the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first 10 months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 25.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, the export was 14.33 trillion yuan, up 2.4%; Imports reached 11.62 trillion yuan, down 0.5%; The trade surplus was 2.71 trillion yuan, up 16.9%. In October, China's foreign trade import and export reached 2.84 trillion yuan, up 4.6%. Among them, the export was 1.62 trillion yuan, up 7.6%; Imports reached 1.22 trillion yuan, up 0.9%; The trade surplus was 401.75 billion yuan, up 34.9%.

Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis, said in an interview with the media, "Since June, the import and export of foreign trade has achieved positive growth for five consecutive months, and the international market share of exports has also been rising. In the current situation of a serious recession in the world economy and a significant contraction in external demand, this highlights the strong resilience of China's development and the stability and quality improvement of foreign trade."

In the first 10 months, China's foreign trade import and export mainly showed five characteristics: general trade import and export growth, increased proportion; Imports and exports to the top five trading partners, including ASEAN, the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea, increased; The import and export of private enterprises increased and their proportion increased; The export of mechanical and electrical products, textiles and plastic products increased, while the export of clothing, shoes, boots, cases and bags decreased; The import volume and price of iron ore rose simultaneously, while the import volume of crude oil, soybeans, natural gas and other commodities rose and fell.

Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that under the impact of the global epidemic, China was able to maintain a good foreign trade situation, mainly due to the fact that China controlled the spread of the epidemic at the fastest speed, thus leading other major economies in resuming production, achieving sustained economic recovery and stabilizing domestic demand, It is conducive to import repair. In addition, the stable domestic production capacity is in sharp contrast to the overseas supply chain blocked by the epidemic. The transfer of some overseas orders to China also provides support for domestic exports, making China's foreign trade show strong resilience. At the same time, the quality of China's foreign trade is also constantly improving. From the perspective of foreign trade structure, in the first 10 months of this year, the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products with higher added value was higher than the overall export growth rate, and its share in exports increased compared with the same period last year.

"There are three main reasons for the continued growth of China's foreign trade import and export: first, the external demand is weak and the external supply is blocked, while China's production supply is restored in time, stabilizing the global supply chain, especially the supply chain for epidemic prevention materials; Second, while stabilizing supply and production, China has timely restored consumer demand, especially the demand for bulk commodities, providing important support for stabilizing world market demand; Third, the change in China's foreign trade structure, especially the increase in import and export of general trade, means that China is more competitive in market development. " Liu Xiangdong, vice minister of the Economic Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, added in an interview with the Securities Daily that, on the whole, China's foreign trade imports and exports remain competitive, which is not only affected by short-term epidemics, but also the result of the optimization and improvement of the industrial structure itself.

Looking forward to the future, Dong Zhongyun believes that the subsequent economic recovery of European and American countries may slow down due to the strengthening of epidemic prevention and control, and foreign demand will be suppressed to some extent, which will have a negative impact on China's exports. But at the same time, the recovery of overseas supply chain will also slow down. On the one hand, it will continue to affect the import of some goods, and on the other hand, it will continue to highlight the advantages of China's production capacity, which is conducive to China's export chain to undertake more global orders. Therefore, under the condition that China's economy continues to recover steadily, China's foreign trade situation will be affected by both overseas demand and production in the future. In general, it is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade is expected to continue to operate stably at the current level.

"With the gradual recovery of the global economy, it is expected that the import and export of foreign trade will still maintain a double growth in the next two months of this year, which will promote the overall import and export of foreign trade to be expected to reach a growth rate of about 2% in 2020." Liu Xiangdong predicted.