Interpretation: The Year-On-Year Increase Of CPI Continued To Fall In October, And The Year-On-Year Decline Of PPI Was The Same As That Of Last Month

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index) data for October 2020. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

1. CPI fell slightly month on month, and the year-on-year increase continued to fall

In October, all regions and departments continued to do a good job in ensuring supply and price stability, and the overall market supply and demand was stable. On a month on month basis, CPI fell by 0.3%. Among them, food prices increased from 0.4% in the previous month to 1.8% in decline, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.41%. In food, pig production capacity continued to recover, pork supply continued to improve, the price dropped by 7.0%, the decline rate was 5.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; eggs and fresh vegetables were in sufficient supply, the prices decreased by 2.3% and 2.1% respectively; in some regions, apple, pear and other new fruits were listed, the price of fresh fruit rose slightly by 1.8%, 5.5% lower than that of last month. Non food prices rose by 0.1%, down 0.1% from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.08%. Among non food items, residents' travel increased during the National Day Mid Autumn Festival holiday, and the prices of air tickets, hotel accommodation and tourism increased by 9.4%, 4.1% and 2.8% respectively; affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil price, the prices of gasoline and diesel decreased by 2.3% and 2.6% respectively.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 0.5%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The year-on-year growth fell more, mainly due to the higher base of comparison in the same period of last year, the decrease of tail warping factors and the change of pork price from up to down. Among them, food prices rose by 2.2%, 5.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.49%. In food, the prices of fresh vegetables, beef and mutton rose by 16.7%, 7.0% and 3.6% respectively, with the increase falling by 0.5%, 2.0% and 1.8% respectively; the price of pork fell for the first time after 19 months of continuous rise, falling by 2.8%; the prices of eggs, chicken and duck decreased by 18.3%, 13.2% and 6.5%, respectively, with the decrease rates of 0.6%, 4.1 and 1.8 percentage points respectively. Non food prices were flat. Among them, the price of health care increased by 1.5%; the price of education, culture and entertainment increased by 1.1%; the price of transportation and communication decreased by 3.9%, of which the price of gasoline and diesel decreased by 17.4% and 19.1% respectively. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year, the same increase as last month.

It is estimated that among the 0.5% year-on-year increase in October, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 0.4 percentage points, which was 0.8 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and the impact of new price increases was about 0.1 percentage points.

　 2. The month on month ratio of PPI has changed from up to flat, and the year-on-year decrease is the same as that of last month

With the continuous recovery of domestic industrial production, industrial production prices in October were generally stable. From the month on month, PPI rose slightly to flat. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 0.1%, and the rise fell by 0.1%; the price of means of living decreased by 0.1%, the same as that of last month. According to the survey of 40 industrial sectors, there were 12 industrial sectors with price rising, 3 less than the previous month, 18 declining, 1 decreasing, and 10 flat, increasing 4. Among them, affected by the temperature drop in the north, the heating demand gradually increased, and the prices of coal mining and washing industry, gas production and supply industry increased by 2.1% and 0.4% respectively; the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 1.1%, the price of chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 1.0%, and the prices of textile industry, papermaking and paper products industry and non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 0.3%. Affected by the shock and downturn of international crude oil prices, the prices of oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 4.9%, and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries decreased by 1.6%. In addition, the prices of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 2.1%, the same as the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 2.7%, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.1 percentage point; the price of means of living decreased by 0.5%, with a decrease of 0.4%. Among the major industries, coal mining and washing industry decreased by 5.5% and 2.0%, while gas production and supply industry decreased by 5.4% and 0.1% respectively. The oil and natural gas exploitation industry decreased by 30.4% and expanded by 4.2%. The oil, coal and other fuel processing industries decreased by 18.5% and expanded by 1.6%. In addition, the price of nonferrous metal smelting and calendering industry rose by 2.9%, the same as that of the previous month; the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased from flat to up by 0.3%. The price of processing and sideline food rose by 2.0%.

It is estimated that in the 2.1% year-on-year decline in October, the tail raising effect of last year's price changes was about - 0.1 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about - 2.0 percentage points.