The Price Is Invalid Due To The Rush For Goods: The Increase Is Over 3000 Yuan / Ton, And The Spandex Is Out Of Stock?

Since October, the price of spandex, known as "monosodium glutamate" in textiles, has been rising continuously. According to the industry website data, the average market price in October increased by 12.39% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 17.13% year-on-year. However, at the beginning of November, after the stagflation of relevant chemical fiber raw materials, spandex still ushered in a boom, which surprised the industry!

Is the price of spandex rising because of the rising cost? Or is it caused by the imbalance between supply and demand? There are big differences in the industry.

Xiao Shubin, Director Secretary of Xinxiang Chemical fiber, told the financial association that the price rise was mainly due to demand. The company's current production and sales rate was 110%, and last year's inventory was sold out. Gong Yuqian, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang information, believes that the price rise is mainly caused by the cost rise. The price of pure MDI, one of the raw materials for producing spandex, has risen by more than 60% since August.

In fact, it is not only industry but also capital that is divided. Leading Huafeng spandex (002064. SZ) on October 22 showed that three buyers' seats and four sellers' seats were all institutions.

Raw material driven vs demand driven

During the National Day holiday, a "screenshot that spandex can't grab" was circulated in wechat groups and public accounts. After the national day, spandex prices began to jump. According to the data of the business agency, the seller's quotation of Huafeng spandex 40d products jumped from 32500 yuan / ton on September 25 to 34000 yuan / ton on October 9, 35000 yuan / ton on October 15, and 37000 yuan / ton on October 27; the seller's quotation of Bailu spandex 40d products of Xinxiang chemical fiber increased from 31000 yuan / ton on October 9 to 32000 yuan / ton on October 12, and 2000 yuan / ton on October 15 On October 27, it rose to 36000 yuan / ton. As of October 27, the average market price was 12.39% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 17.13% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

There are divergent views on the price rise. Zhuo Chuang information analyst Gong Yuqian told reporters that the price rise of spandex after the festival is mainly due to the relatively large composition of upstream raw materials. First of all, the price of pure MDI has increased greatly. Although pure MDI accounts for 20% of the cost of spandex, the price has increased by more than 60% compared with the beginning of August. The cost pressure on spandex is relatively large, and the price of PTMEG, another raw material of spandex, also rises slightly Therefore, on the whole, the cost side support pressure is relatively large. In view of the continuous increase in operating costs.

Xiao Shubin believes that it is more due to the rising demand. Adding spandex to the fabric can increase the elasticity and comfort of the fabric. In recent years, the demand for ironless and wrinkle resistant fabrics with spandex has been increasing. With the popularization of spandex price, the amount of spandex added in textiles is increasing. With the increase of demand, the price will show. The company has raised the factory price several times before following the market.

The price rise of spandex may also be adulterated with speculation. In the view of Yuanda products Polyester researcher, the growth rate of social retail products in the clothing sector entered a downward cycle after March 2018, and the sales growth rate decreased. The de stocking action has been done for two years. In these two years, the downstream clothing manufacturing industry has realized the flexible transformation of the supply chain and has done a very good job in inventory control.

Flexible supply chain increases the response speed of supply and demand in the industrial chain, and can reduce the cost when the price is in the downward trend. However, when prices enter the upward trend or the expectation of price rise is formed, the whole industrial chain will be quickly tightened, and the phenomenon of hoarding will appear at each node of the industrial chain. Yuanda polyester researcher said that the upstream grey cloth traders in the clothing industry have a relatively large speculative in the industry. Clothing enterprises focus on placing orders to traders. In addition to the feedback of enterprise orders to upstream, traders will speculate on their own.

The divergence of the main logic of spandex price rise also affects the value judgment of capital to Huafeng spandex. On October 22, Huafeng spandex's Dragon and tiger list showed that foreign capital, which has always been known as "smart money", bought 46.3716 million yuan and sold 33.2818 million yuan, which also ranked in the position of "buy one" and "sell one". Similarly, there are also domestic funded institutions, three in the buyer's seat and four in the seller's seat.

Is it really out of stock?

Shaoxing a spandex trader told reporters: "at present, the company's stock is not much, mainly sold to old customers. In terms of transaction mode, goods are delivered after payment, but even if the payment is received, there may not be enough goods, which is basically the status of goods with price but without goods. Anyway, the manufacturers are out of stock, and our middlemen are out of stock. Our actual downstream customers' inventory is not much, just two or three days' goods. Where is spandex going? I don't know. "

Data show that spandex refers to polyurethane fiber, which is made by polymerization of PTMEG and pure MDI. It is the "monosodium glutamate" fiber in textiles and the most widely used elastic fiber. At present, China is already the largest spandex producer in the world, accounting for about 65% of the global production capacity. The spandex industry has an obvious head effect. In recent years, the top enterprises in the industry have continued to expand production. From 2015 to 2019, the domestic spandex production capacity has a compound annual growth rate of 8.19%.

According to the forecast, the domestic spandex production capacity will reach 872000 tons in the first half of 2020 (an increase of 2.6% compared with the end of 2019), while the demand in the first half of 2020 is only 283000 tons (a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year). It is difficult to fundamentally change the situation of oversupply in the short term.

For spandex can not be delivered, Gong Yuqian told reporters that in September, we did not collect too much information about spandex. The main varieties of spandex are 20d, 30d, 40d and 70D. Among them, 70D and above are coarse denier products, which are not as large as 20d, 30d and 40d. It may be that individual models of spandex are in short supply.

In terms of the supply and demand pattern of the industry in the second half of the year, Gong Yuqian said that the overall growth rate of demand this year is almost the same as that of last year, which is about 6%. It is also possible that a little bit better than last year. The supply side is currently in the process of digestion of new production capacity in 2017, and some small factories are in the process of being eliminated. Xiao Shubin predicted that after the new production and hedging shutdown, the output will reach 700000 tons this year. When talking about this year's demand outlook, Xiao Shubin avoided this problem. He said that China is the world's largest fiber producer, about 70% of the fibers are produced in China, and various fibers are about 60 million tons. If the proportion of spandex is increased a little, the demand will increase a lot.

Data shows that in the A-share market, the main target of spandex is huafeng spandex, Xinxiang Chemical fiber and Taihe new materials (002254. SZ). In terms of new production capacity, Gong Yuqian said that Huafeng spandex had a capacity of 30000 tons this year, and another 40000 tons would be put into production next year; Xinxiang Chemical fiber has made a capacity planning of 100000 tons, which may be put into operation after 2021; Taihe new materials also has a production capacity of 15000 tons.