Growth Enterprise Market Turnover Broke 400 Billion, A Record High, Liquidity Driven Market Changes

402.17 billion yuan, which was the turnover of the gem on September 9, while the transaction volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange, including the science and technology innovation board, was only 341.05 billion yuan.

Before this, A-share market has shown this trend. On September 2, the turnover of the gem exceeded that of the main board without the science and technology innovation board, and became more and more intense in the following days.

The most direct embodiment is that a number of low-priced GEM stocks including Tianshan biological (300313. SZ) have soared continuously, which has a huge siphon effect on the capital end of the market. However, the recent A-share small cap speculation, how can there be no reason?

The core logic is that since the "630 market", the loose market liquidity has weakened, and the large blue chip stocks represented by consumption have increased significantly, and the funds have been changed to speculate in GEM stocks with lower share prices.

In this regard, a number of buyers and sellers have made a judgment, that is, the driving role of liquidity on a shares is declining, and the market is facing the choice of direction and plate again. In the view of various institutions, the driving force of the secondary market will also shift from liquidity to corporate profit driving.

Capital moves to gem

However, since the beginning of this year, the trading volume of the gem has not broken through 3200 billion yuan for two consecutive days since the beginning of this year.

However, in the first three trading days of this week, the turnover of gem exceeded the above level for three consecutive days, reaching a record high of 402.17 billion yuan on September 9.

The other side of its hot deal is the downturn of the main board market.

Take Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index as an example, the daily turnover peak during the "630 market" period reached 635.255 billion yuan, and dropped to 244.9 billion yuan on September 9. At the same time, the recent three trading days also showed a continuous downward trend.

Reflected to the individual stock level, the turnover data also maintained the same trend. According to statistics, from September 1 to now, the average turnover of individual stocks on the gem has increased from 277 million yuan to 377 million yuan, while the turnover of 300% stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen has decreased slightly from 873 million yuan to 831 million yuan in the same period.

It can be seen that in the short term, the decrease in turnover of blue chip stocks is relatively limited, but affected by the sharp increase of gem activity, the latter eventually surpasses the former.

In the view of some market participants, this is not reasonable. After all, the size of the Shanghai stock market is much larger than that of the growth enterprise market in terms of the number of listed companies and the circulation market value.

Take the market value of circulation as an example. By the end of September 9, the free circulation market value of Shanghai Stock Exchange main board and gem was 15.58 trillion yuan and 4.6 trillion yuan respectively.

If it is regarded as the "position" part, it is equivalent to the recent rapid increase in the "trading position ratio" of gem, which has been used to measure the speculative degree of trading varieties in the futures market.

Further tracking to the industry level, we can also see that the weight plate of the early rise has an obvious contraction.

According to statistics, from June to the end of August this year, the top industries with the highest growth rate were defense and military industry, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, leisure services and building materials.

In addition to the total daily turnover of forestry and fishery industries, the turnover decreased from RMB 23.59 billion in the beginning of the month to RMB 23.78 billion in other industries.

The reasons for the above changes are not only due to the excessive accumulation of large blue chip stocks in the early stage, but also affected by the decrease of capital trading activity of Beishang, an important participant of blue chips.

In the early days of "630 market", Beishang capital had a turnover of more than 150 billion yuan on several trading days, and on July 7 it reached a peak of 191.2 billion yuan.

However, after entering September, Beishang's capital trading activity decreased significantly. The daily turnover never exceeded 110 billion yuan, and the turnover fell below 100 billion yuan in three of the seven trading days.

Main board trading weakened, gem transactions increased significantly, under one plus one decrease, gem turnover continued to exceed the Shanghai main board.

Liquidity driven market weakening

The periodic rise of a shares in the second half of the year has an important external environment, that is, the obvious improvement of external liquidity, which provides a basis for the valuation recovery of blue chips.

Take the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index as an example. In the first ten days of July, there was a rise of nearly 20%. During this period, the financial and non banking sectors continued to pull up, driving the large-scale upward trend of the main board market.

The A-share liquidity index of China Merchants Securities, which is based on the expectation of capital, capital supply and demand and capital activity, rose rapidly in late June and then fell back rapidly. By September 4, the index had fallen back to the level in mid April.

"With the weakening of macro liquidity, micro liquidity, that is, stock market liquidity, has undergone subtle changes." Zhang Jimin pointed out that the main driving force of investment promotion is the growth of capital flow into the domestic market, which is the main driving force of investment promotion.

Correspondingly, in the process of China Merchants A-share liquidity index falling down, the rise rate of CSI 300 index decreased significantly, and the overall trend turned to high volatility.

In other words, after the lack of liquidity support, the willingness and ability of the secondary market to pull up blue chip stocks were all declining. Superimposed on the violent rise of blue chips at that time, the valuation was significantly rebounded, and the capital side immediately turned.

With the opening of the registration system of gem, the rise and fall of the stock of "old stocks" increased from 10% to 20%, and the speculation space of individual stocks increased accordingly, which was selected as the new focus of speculation by funds.

Under the above background, small market value companies represented by Tianshan biology have been continuously rising, and the trading activity of GEM has increased greatly.

Interestingly, the small and medium-sized board, which is also a concentration of small market value companies, has not kept consistent with the growth enterprise market in recent years. On the contrary, the trend of transaction change is the same as that of the main board market. This detail can also explain some new changes brought about by the reform of the GEM market on its market environment.

However, the same as the main board market, or even beyond the main board lies in the current high valuation level of the gem.

"Facing the gem with an average p / E ratio of 80 times, we should not sing praises, but should prompt risks Overestimation needs absolute high growth to digest valuation, eliminate valuation bubbles and let investors land safely. " Wan Jingtao, a private placement personage in East China, made an early warning on the gem on September 2.

In the following five trading days, the gem index fell all the way from 2772 points to 2523 points. Obviously, the gem, which has been rising for two consecutive years, is not a place to stay for a long time.

On the other hand, with the collective weakness of the main board and the gem, only a part of the GEM stocks remained in the market, and the secondary market as a whole showed a very obvious weakening.

On September 9, among the 850 GEM stocks traded, only 156 realized the rise, and the capital was crowded in 12 stocks with top limit. (Editor: Wu Yanling)

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