Market Shows M Top Cotton Price To The Crossroads

On September 4, the U.S. labor department's employment data showed that the U.S. unemployment rate in August was 8.4%, lower than 10.2% in July. The non farm employment data in August also reached 1.37 million, but the U.S. stock market fell sharply again.

However, the news of China's massive purchase of us soybeans stimulated soybeans to a new high in more than two years. The market expected China to continue to expand its purchase of American cotton. ICE Futures got rid of the adverse impact of the stock market and followed the grain market higher. The December contract recovered the previous day's land loss.

At present, the U.S. cotton contract progress has reached 50% of USDA's forecast, with an average of 45% in the same period in recent five years, and China's procurement has remained stable. September 7 is labor day in the United States, and ice futures are closed. Affected by this, this week's US cotton seedling situation report and US cotton export weekly report were delayed for one day, and USDA supply and demand forecast will be released on Friday (September 11), and the impact of Hurricane on new cotton production may be reflected.

In addition, rainfall and flooding in some cotton producing areas of Pakistan and India may lead to delay of new cotton harvest, but the current stock of old cotton is still sufficient, and the delay of new cotton harvest will not cause supply shortage.

In terms of technology, the December contract shows signs of "double peaks", one is 66.45 cents at the end of August and the other is 66.44 cents in early September. If the market can not cross this "peak" this week, the "double top" will be more obvious. Bulls have manipulated the market for quite a while, and if there is disappointment, they are likely to close their positions and withdraw. U.S. stocks fell nearly 1000 points in two days, which would have an impact on market psychology, but a stronger grain market also supported cotton prices.