Professor Wilson Of Fudan University: Real Estate Is Still The Engine Of Economic Development

Wilson said he was a man who dared to speak, but now he did not dare to speak. Because it's changing every day, no one knows what will happen to the world economy. But changes are always relative, and real estate is still an important engine of China's economic growth, which has not changed.

Under the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation, how does China's economy develop and what impact will the real estate industry be? On August 8, at the 20th annual meeting of Boao 21st century real estate forum, Professor Wei Sen of Fudan University delivered a speech entitled "the world economy under the impact of the new crown epidemic and China's economy and real estate". He pointed out that in the complex international environment, infrastructure and real estate are still important pillars of China's economy, and real estate tax and inheritance tax will not be introduced in the near future.

But in the absence of demographic dividend, high prices and other factors, house prices in the future can not rise significantly.

Tenacious recovery of real estate

Five months ago, Wilson was optimistic about China's economy. However, now he is more worried about China's economic growth this year. The reason is not only the new coronavirus that may accompany mankind for a long time, but also the deteriorating international environment.

Under such circumstances, China's foreign trade orders fell sharply. Although it rebounded in July, it had little impact. Wilson said that the information released from the recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee shows that the Central Committee has realized that many of the problems China is facing now are in the medium and long term.

But from a global perspective, China's economy is still performing well. According to the National Bureau of statistics, GDP fell by 6.8% in the first quarter, and increased by 3.2% in the second quarter. China's GDP in the first half of the year increased year on year.

Since May, China's economic operation has continued to recover.

On the one hand, various economic indicators have rebounded. For example, in May, the composite PMI output index was 53.4%, and the profits of middle and lower stream enterprises were also picking up.

On the other hand, gross industrial output value, fixed asset investment and real estate investment began to rise. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in May, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.53% month on month. From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 6278 billion yuan, up 1.9% year on year.

Macro policy adjustment has been strengthened, local policies have been more flexible because of the city. After the epidemic situation has eased, the backlog of house purchase demand has been actively released. China's real estate market has continued to recover, especially the hot cities in the Yangtze River Delta region.

In terms of sales of real estate enterprises, according to the top 100 sales list of real estate enterprises in the first seven months released by E-House Research Institute, the single month performance of real estate enterprises operating on the market increased month by month since April, and further increased to 25.7% in July, and the cumulative performance scale increased by 2.7% year-on-year.

From a variety of data, it can be seen that the recovery of the real estate industry is rapid and obvious.

According to Wu Ge, chief economist of Changjiang Securities, real estate and infrastructure have contributed most to China's GDP growth for many years. Weisen believes that one of the most important industries supporting China's economic growth is the real estate industry.

Limited room for price rise

Under the impact of this year's epidemic, all countries in the world have started monetary easing.

In this context, there is a view that "as long as the money is released, house prices will rise". However, Wilson believes that the relationship between house price rise and monetary easing is mutually causal, and it can not be said that who decides who.

By comparing the Nasdaq composite index with Shanghai house price index and Shenzhen house price index, Wilson points out that "buying a house in Shenzhen and Shanghai can earn more than that in Nasdaq. At least this is the experience of everyone in the past ten or twenty years."

However, under a number of constraints, he believes that it is very difficult for future house prices to rise sharply.

First of all, the national policy has always stressed that "housing does not stir fry", that is to say, it does not advocate to increase the value of their own assets through real estate. Wilson said that the recent central government's reiteration of "no speculation on housing and housing" shows that, despite the economic downturn, policy makers have not relaxed their control over the property market.

Secondly, from the current situation, the vacancy rate, self owned housing rate and house price of Chinese urban residents are very high in the world. According to the data analyzed by CICC in 2018, the ratio of housing units per capita in China's cities and towns is 1:1.6. Although there are some differences in the data of the survey center of Southwest University of Finance and economics, they can all show that a family of three has about 3.5-3.6 suites.

In addition, according to the data of numboe international house price statistics database, among the top 20 cities in the world, Chinese cities occupy 16 seats. Among them, Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai are among the top three cities at home and abroad.

Wilson also mentioned that in the long run, China's demographic dividend is disappearing from China's birth rate and aging rate.

Considering the above factors, the rising space of house price in the future is limited, but it does not affect the position of real estate industry in economic development.

Wilson judged that in the current dangerous international environment, infrastructure and real estate are still the main industries for China's economic recovery and growth. In the short term, the real estate tax and the inheritance tax will not be introduced.

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