The Purchasing Manager Index Of Manufacturing Industry Has Been Above The Critical Point For 5 Consecutive Months

Original title: Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of service industry survey center of National Bureau of statistics interprets China purchasing manager index in July 2020

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for July

And non manufacturing business activity index continued to stay above the critical point

- Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of service industry survey center of National Bureau of statistics, interprets China purchasing manager index in July 2020

On July 31, 2020, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

With the effective implementation of the overall epidemic prevention and development policies, China's economic prosperity has continued to recover, and the operating conditions of enterprises have been continuously improved. In July, China's purchasing manager index continued to maintain a stable operation, of which the manufacturing purchasing manager index was 51.1%, up 0.2% from the previous month, while the non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 54.2% and 54.1%, slightly lower than 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

1. The purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry has been above the critical point for five consecutive months

In July, the PMI of the manufacturing industry was 51.1%, continuing the trend of steady increase in the previous month. Among the 21 industries surveyed, PMI of 17 industries was higher than the critical point, 3 more than that of last month, and the business scope was expanded. Main features of the month:

First, production generally rebounded. The production index was 54.0%, slightly higher than 0.1% of the previous month. From the industry situation, except chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, the production indexes of other 20 industries are all higher than the critical point, among which, textile, clothing, wood processing and other manufacturing industries rose above the critical point for the first time since the epidemic. In order to meet the needs of production, enterprises increased their purchasing efforts. This month, the index of purchasing volume rebounded significantly, which was 52.4%, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of last month.

Second, demand is gradually warming up. The index of new orders was 51.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, rising for three consecutive months. From the perspective of the industry, the index of new orders of paper printing, electrical machinery and equipment, computer communication and electronic equipment and other manufacturing industries continued to rise above the critical point, and the recovery momentum of the industry continued to increase.

Third, the import and export situation continued to improve. With the gradual relaxation of isolation and blockade measures by major global economies, the resumption of economic activities, and the implementation of a series of policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade issued by China, the import and export of manufacturing industry has picked up. This month, the index of new export orders and import indexes were 48.4% and 49.1%, respectively, higher than 5.8% and 2.1% of last month.

The main reason for the recent rise in the four purchase price index is the high point of raw materials. Compared with the previous month, the purchase price index of main materials decreased by 1.2% and 58.2% respectively. Affected by the rising demand of downstream industries, the prices of upstream products have increased significantly. The purchasing price indexes of main raw materials in the manufacturing industries of petroleum processing, steel and nonferrous metals are all higher than 63.0%, and the ex factory price indexes are higher than 58.0%.

Fifthly, enterprises are expected to further improve. The expected index of production and operation activities was 57.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Enterprises are optimistic about the recovery trend of the industry in the near future. From the perspective of the industry, the expected production and operation indexes of food, wine and beverage refined tea, medicine, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry are all higher than 60.0%, and the labor demand of the above industries has increased month on month, and the employee index is above 51.0%.

The survey results also show that the PMI of small enterprises in this month was 48.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be below the critical point. The production index and the new order index were 49.8% and 46.8% respectively. The supply and demand sides of small enterprises continued to be under pressure. In addition, some enterprises in Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and other places reported that the flood disaster caused the logistics transportation to be impeded, and the production and operation were affected to a certain extent.

2. The index of non manufacturing business activities continued to remain above the critical point

In July, the non manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, down 0.2% from the previous month, and remained above the critical point.

The recovery of service industry is maintained. The business activity index of the service industry was 53.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and continued to be higher than the critical point. From the industry situation, the business activity index of postal express, accommodation, catering, telecommunications, securities and other industries was higher than that of last month, and the total business volume increased. This month, the business activity index of residents' service industry and culture, sports and entertainment industry ended the contraction trend for five consecutive months, rising to 51.1% and 51.9% respectively, higher than 1.9% and 6.1% of the previous month, indicating that under the effect of a series of consumption promotion policies in various localities in the near future, the aggregation and contact service industries which were seriously affected by the epidemic situation accelerated the recovery.

The construction industry rebounded at a high level. Infrastructure projects were accelerated, and the construction work volume maintained a rapid growth. The business activity index of the construction industry was 60.5%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The business activity index of civil engineering construction industry was 62.5%, 3.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. In terms of the expected employment index of more than 56.0% and 55.0% in the construction market, the expected employment demand remained at 55.0% and 55.0% respectively.

3. The comprehensive PMI output index runs smoothly

In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.1%, slightly lower than 0.1% of the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises maintained a recovery growth momentum. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 54.0% and 54.2% respectively, up and down on a month on month basis.