1~4 Month Sustained Economic Pressure, Consumption And Investment Will Be Sluggish, Industrial Growth Is Thriving.

Economic performance and development trend of textile industry in 1~4 month 2020

Since 2020, the popularity of the new coronavirus has caused serious damage to the economies of various countries and the global economy has contracted. According to the world bank's forecast in June 2020, the global economy will drop by 5.2% in 2020. At the same time, Global trade activities have also been seriously affected, and the volume of Global trade in 2020 is expected to decline by 13.4% over the same period last year. From the domestic point of view, economic activity is still under pressure, but it has eased significantly compared with the first quarter, slowing down industrial production, narrowing the investment in fixed assets, and gradually increasing domestic consumption activities.

At present, facing the complex and severe domestic and international environment, the operation pressure of China's textile industry is still very large. There are still many difficulties in the textile industry chain, such as the continuous slowdown in supply and demand, the contraction of investment activities and the decline of industry efficiency. Only the industry textile industry is affected by the urgent demand of anti epidemic materials and so on, and the economic benefits of the related enterprises are obviously improved. The development trend of rapid growth.

In the long run, China's epidemic prevention and control situation has been further consolidated, production and life order has returned to the right track, the industrial chain convergence has been gradually smooth, and the relevant work of "six guarantees and six guarantees" has been steadily advancing. The package policy continues to exert strength, and the resilience of China's economic development will continue to increase. China's textile industry has gradually regress steadily.

Production decline further narrowed, industrial production growth is obvious.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020 1~4, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size decreased by 11.3% compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points over that of 1~3 months. In the various links of the industrial chain, the added value of the industrial textile industry increased significantly, an increase of 33.8% over the same period last year, an increase of 22.3 percentage points compared with that in 1~3 months, and the rest of the industries showed a decline of different magnitudes.

The output of key textile products decreased significantly compared with the same period in previous years, and only a small increase in nonwoven production was observed. According to statistics, in 2020 1~4 months, the domestic production of non-woven fabric was 15 billion 600 million meters, up 2.3% over the same period last year. Among them, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Jiangsu and Guangdong are the top five provinces of nonwovens production, producing 9 billion 870 million meters in total, accounting for 63.3% of the total output of the country.

Domestic market consumption is low, and network channel consumption is gradually starting.

Affected by the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of clothing as an optional consumer goods is relatively large. In the overall decline of consumer demand, the consumption of clothing products is more obvious. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020 1~4, the total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 106758 billion yuan, down 16.2% from the same period last year, of which retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles were 305 billion 700 million yuan, down 29% from the same period last year, and the proportion of retail sales of social consumer goods dropped to 2.86% from 3.44% in the same period last year.

Internet retailing is gradually recovering under the current consumption environment. In 2020 1~4, China's online apparel retail sales decreased by 12% compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from 1~3 months. From the point of view, women's clothing and home textile products start to resume quickly. According to Taobao platform related data, in March 2020, Alibaba platform women's wear and home textiles sales growth rate was 3.5% and 10.8% respectively, and by April 2020, its growth rate was increased to 47.5% and 34.4% respectively. Men's clothing products are also in the recovery stage.

Clothing exports are dropping heavily, and masks become the support of textile exports.

Affected by the epidemic, consumer demand for clothing in the world's key markets has declined significantly, but the surge in demand for related anti epidemic materials has also made this year's export of textile and clothing showing an obvious export growth. According to China Customs express data, in 2020 1~5 months, China's textile and clothing exports were 96 billion 160 million US dollars, down 1.2% compared to the same period last year, narrowing by 8.8 percentage points compared with the decline in 1~4 months. Textile exports amounted to $57 billion 950 million, an increase of 21.3% over the previous year, and clothing exports of $38 billion 210 million, down 22.8% from the same period last year.

Masks have become an important export support for textile export growth. According to our customs data statistics, 1~4 months, China's exports to the United States, Japan and the EU, the amount of masks accounted for 33%, 40% and 54% respectively.

Industry investment will be sluggish and fixed assets investment will be reduced.

This year, affected by multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic and the cyclical adjustment of the industry, the overall investment willingness of the industry is not strong, showing a shrinking investment scale. According to the National Bureau of statistics, fixed investment in China's textile industry decreased by 33.9% in the month of 2020 1~4, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from 1~3 months. Among them, the fixed investment in textile industry decreased by 32.5% compared with the same period last year, and the fixed investment in clothing industry decreased by 41.7% compared with the same period last year, and the chemical fiber manufacturing industry dropped by 16.2% compared with the same period last year.

From the perspective of the main provinces, the investment in the epidemic related projects has been stimulated. Only in Yunnan, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces, the investment in textile industry, chemical fiber industry and clothing industry has been increasing.

Operation quality and efficiency pressure increased, industrial quality and efficiency improved significantly.

The textile industry has a large downward pressure on efficiency. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020 1~4, textile enterprises in the above scale achieved operating income of 1 trillion and 194 billion 250 million yuan, down 19.7% compared to the same period last year, and realized a total profit of 37 billion 700 million yuan, a decrease of 32.1%% compared with the same period last year. The profit rate of business income was 3.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the same period last year.

From the links of the textile industry chain, the quality and efficiency indicators of the textile industry have improved significantly. It is estimated that in 2020 1~4, the operating profit margin of the industrial textiles industry was 9.3%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points over the same period last year; the three fee ratio was 8%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease over the same period last year; the asset liability ratio was 49.2%, a 1 percentage point decline over the same period last year; asset turnover rate 1.2 times / year, the highest among all textile sub sectors.

Positive factors still exist, running or improving in the second half of the year.

Global economic and trade activities in 2020 are likely to fall. In order to cope with the threat of the new coronavirus, the global health care system has been strengthened, and some economic activities have to be suspended. The world bank and OECD respectively judged the global economic downturn in 2020. At the same time, the OECD judged that the global unemployment rate rose sharply to 10% in 2020. The global trade market is shrinking, and the export trade market of China's textile industry will be under pressure simultaneously.

But we should also see that the current domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, and strive to promote the whole industry chain to resume production, reduce the burden on enterprises, expand the domestic consumer market. According to the relevant data of the Ministry of industry and information, as of May 18, 2020, the average operating rate of the industrial enterprises above Designated Size and the rate of duplicate workers' posts reached 99.1% and 95.4% respectively, basically reaching the normal level. With the implementation of relevant policies such as reducing taxes, reducing taxes, stimulating consumption, expanding infrastructure investment, stabilizing employment and ensuring people's livelihood, the support role of domestic market consumption will also gradually recover, and the quality of textile industry will be improved in the second half of the year.